Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017

[DC Al Fine]

Incidentally, Fildebrandt is a great example of why parties should be giving fewer safe seats to non-locals. Too many staffers and activists are getting seats that could be going to some random lawyer or small businessman who keeps their foot out of their mouth.

[DC Al Fine]

The 42 seats that I listed out should be within the NDP's grasp if they can retain their support in urban Alberta, plus a couple of rural seats (Lesser Slave Lake, Banff-Stoney, and Wetaskiwin-Camrose) that have special factors affecting them, particularly above-average indigenous populations. Granted, it would be tough, and their polling numbers would have to improve, but it is at least within the realm of possibility.

The main take away I got from your list is how tough a situation the NDP is in.

It looks like they'll need to hold on to their 2015 voters AND hold off the Liberals/Alberta party AND take some folks from the UCP to even manage a small loss in the popular vote. Even then I raised an eyebrow at a couple of your picks (e.g. I really doubt the NDP win Medicine Hat against a united right unless they have a decent sized win). I'm not writing them off (this is Canada after all ), but I suspect the result will look something like 1993. The progressives will sweep or near sweep Edmonton, win a handful of other seats, but the Tories will still maintain a comfortable majority.

[DC Al Fine]

Which seats would the Alberta Party be expected to overperform in besides Calgary Elbow? I'm assuming seats with lots of well off folks who don't like right wing parties' populism and/or religiosity, but unfortunately I don't know which seats those are in Alberta

[DC Al Fine]

Jason Kenney wins with over 60% on first ballot, so sort of what is expected.  No doubt the NDP is happy, but they should not underestimate him.  He is a very polarizing figure and has lots of negative baggage, but he is a very strong campaigner and knows how to win, so while I think he is favoured to be the next premier, it is not a foregone conclusion and I do think with him you will probably have a somewhat larger official opposition than you would have under Jean.

He hasn't led a campaign yet though. Kenney's done an excellent job campaigning as a minister and leadership candidate, but an actual campaign is a different kettle of fish.

[DC Al Fine]

Jason Kenney wins with over 60% on first ballot, so sort of what is expected.  No doubt the NDP is happy, but they should not underestimate him.  He is a very polarizing figure and has lots of negative baggage, but he is a very strong campaigner and knows how to win, so while I think he is favoured to be the next premier, it is not a foregone conclusion and I do think with him you will probably have a somewhat larger official opposition than you would have under Jean.

He hasn't led a campaign yet though. Kenney's done an excellent job campaigning as a minister and leadership candidate, but an actual campaign is a different kettle of fish.

The implication being: he could be another Jim Prentice?

Possibly.

Being leader during an election campaign requires a unique skill set. You pick people you think will succeed, but sometimes their abilities don't quite transfer over.