Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[DC Al Fine]

God guys, just don't start a civil war or something because that's going to screw up my country a lot more than it should, f**k off.

And the DavidB poition is very tempting

This.

Donald Trump is bad in part because of his destruction of civil and democratic norms, but stabbing politicians you dislike is A-OK. The hypocrisy, it burns.

[DC Al Fine]

I have zero sympathy for Bolsonaro. I consider him a dangerous and thoroughly evil individual and it would be hypocritical for me to be like "oh, how awful! He may be a fascist PoS, but I feel sorry for his suffering". At the same time I have to acknowledge trying to kill him wouldn't solve the problem he's representing. If anything, the attacker is a useful idiot for Bolsonaro and his allies, who must be very happy right now.

Hypocritical?

FFS guys, stop acting like "X is an awful person" and "X is a human being so I hope he isn't murdered" are mutually exclusive sentiments.

[DC Al Fine]

I have zero sympathy for Bolsonaro. I consider him a dangerous and thoroughly evil individual and it would be hypocritical for me to be like "oh, how awful! He may be a fascist PoS, but I feel sorry for his suffering". At the same time I have to acknowledge trying to kill him wouldn't solve the problem he's representing. If anything, the attacker is a useful idiot for Bolsonaro and his allies, who must be very happy right now.

Hypocritical?

FFS guys, stop acting like "X is an awful person" and "X is a human being so I hope he isn't murdered" are mutually exclusive sentiments.

There's nothing hypocritical in opposing political murders while holding the subject in deepest contempt.

My second statement wasn't directed at you, I probably should have made that clear...

What I mean is, how is feeling sorry for a terrible person's suffering hypocritical?

[DC Al Fine]

All the violent far-left keyboard warriors will be less happy when Bolsonaro inevitably becomes president and treats the far-left in the exact same way that they would treat him if they ever came to power, which they fortunately won't. I'll have a lechaim for Bolsonaro's speedy recovery and electoral success. Great poll.

My dude, the left was in power for over a decade. Was Bolsonaro ever persecuted then?

By keyboard warriors, I presume he means the folks on Atlas wishing Bolsonaro's death.

[DC Al Fine]

All the violent far-left keyboard warriors will be less happy when Bolsonaro inevitably becomes president and treats the far-left in the exact same way that they would treat him if they ever came to power, which they fortunately won't. I'll have a lechaim for Bolsonaro's speedy recovery and electoral success. Great poll.

My dude, the left was in power for over a decade. Was Bolsonaro ever persecuted then?

By keyboard warriors, I presume he means the folks on Atlas wishing Bolsonaro's death.

But how was Bolsonaro treated when the left was in power? Lula’s not a keyboard warrior.

He's not talking about Lula

[DC Al Fine]

We've heard a lot about the Presidential election. How's the legislative  election shaping up?

[DC Al Fine]

Is there any good demographic polling for the presidential race? I'm curious how the various candidates do among different groups (gender, age, education, religion, income, etc)

[DC Al Fine]

Thanks NMR

Is there any good demographic polling for the presidential race? I'm curious how the various candidates do among different groups (gender, age, education, religion, income, etc)

Income

2 minimum wages or less

Haddad - 20%
Bolsonaro - 19%
Ciro - 13%
Alckmin - 10%
Marina - 9%

2 - 5 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 34%
Haddad - 14%
Ciro - 14%
Alckmin - 9%
Marina - 6%

5 - 10 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 40%
Haddad - 15%
Ciro - 15%
Amoêdo - 6%
Alckmin - 6%
Alvaro - 5%
Marina - 3%

more than 10 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 40%
Haddad - 15%
Ciro - 11%
Amoêdo - 9%
Alckmin - 7%
Alvaro - 2%
Marina - 1%

The key factor IMO

The well off and well educated  voting for the most socially reactionary candidate? How retro

[DC Al Fine]

I superficially mapped all the parties by Left Center and Right and looked at the 2014 balance of both houses after the 2014 elections vs after the 2018 elections

House      2014   2018
Left          169     162
Center      103       69
Right        241     282

Senate    2014    2018
Left           31       25
Center       21       18
Right         29       38

What's your breakdown of the parties?

[DC Al Fine]

The evolution of PT presidential support:



Of course you can immediately see that there's always an essential instability to electoral patterns in Brazil. However there is a story here and it links into the PTs attempts in government to hack away at the caste divisions (I don't think 'race' is quite right) in Brazilian society, which has led to a realignment of politics around those divisions.

What's the deal with the great PT result in that far south province in 1998?

[DC Al Fine]

How did Bolsonaro surge so fast? He has doubled his support in like a month.

Because some idiot stabbed him.

Cautionary tale for the wishing violence on politicians crowd.