Saskatchewan provincial election 2015/2016 (more likely in 2016)

[DC Al Fine]

Boring Saskatchewan Party majority I assume.

Have the Liberals managed to organize this time around?

[DC Al Fine]

Why do the PC's still bother existing?

There was never a merger or disbandment vote. The vast majority of Tory politicians and supporters just left to join the Saskatchewan Party. This left the PC party:

1) With substantial assets, but no membership
2) In the hands of a few anti unite the right types.

If a party is deregistered in Saskatchewan, all the assets are forfeit to the provincial government, so the guys in charge of the PC Party run a few paper candidates each election to keep the party registered until... they return in glory?

[DC Al Fine]

Big fish in smaller ponds out of their depth in an ocean.

I don't think this argument carries any weight. One can say the same thing about governors in the US, and they have still been elected to the Presidency, for example.

I'd chalk it up to small sample size frankly.

[DC Al Fine]

First gaffe of the campaign. NDP candidate tweets something about 'stupid farmers'.

[DC Al Fine]

Latest poll by Mainstreet shows a major narrowing of the gap

SP - 51% (down four from last week)
NDP - 37% (up four from last week)
Libs - 8%
Greens - 3%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gains-sk-party-still-wide-lead/

NB: This popular vote split would take us right back to 2007 when the NDP took 18 seats

I imagine we're seeing the equivalent to the Chretien era custom of massive leads tightening during election campaigns. We'll have to see if its starts tightening into a truly close race.

[DC Al Fine]

If you look at the NDP's so far released platform, they are definitely trying to tap into the success the Liberals had federally.

Could you give some examples?

[DC Al Fine]

Alternatively less seats could be good for the NDP if things went overwhelming their way (as does happen sometimes, this being Saskatchewan). I.e. the effect would depend on circumstances, which obviously we don't know. And anyway this is a populist platform plank for an election in which they're looking to make gains so as to challenge next time rather than they're challenging right now.

This is true, but the NDP are more likely to be burned by fewer seats than SP, all else equal. Like the rest of the Prairies, the right has its rural bastions, but there isn't quite the same poor, urban NDP equivalent like there is in Manitoba.

[DC Al Fine]

Of course percentage wise, four candidates is still a big deal in a small legislature.