Conservatives have been in denial about Virginia for years

[DC Al Fine]

If we can't eat into the north, then we'll be stuck under 300 EV. PA, NH, and possibly ME are the only winnable ones unless Christie runs and then NJ.

Isn't that the big worry among Republican strategists?  That it's becoming harder and harder for their candidate to have a clear path to winning.  They're having to depend more and more on winning just about every toss-up and/or getting slight upsets in Dem. leaning states.  Where as the Dem. candidate only has to win the states they're suppose to win plus one or maybe two battleground states.

Pretty much.  The states that both Gore and Kerry won are still pretty solid for the Democrats, with maybe 1 or 2 shifting to battleground states.

New Mexico has now moved to solid Democrat.  Nevada is really there as well. 

If you throw in Virginia and Colorado, which are trending fast, it starts to become almost impossible for the GOP to win without some upsets.

This. The Dem states trending GOP are leaners turning into swing states while the GOP states turning Dem are swing states turning into leaners.