Canadian federal election - 2015

[DC Al Fine]

Well, there are two Barrie ridings now, so you can't call them both Barrie. I don't like the name either, but I can't think of anything better.

I concur. Barrie has been rurbanized, so Barrie North and Barrie South don't really work.

[DC Al Fine]

What seats do you think will go against the general trend next election?

E.g. The Tories lost Saanich-Gulf Islands despite making gains in 2011.

Louis Saint Laurent is the only one that comes to mind.

[DC Al Fine]

What seats do you think will go against the general trend next election?

E.g. The Tories lost Saanich-Gulf Islands despite making gains in 2011.

Louis Saint Laurent is the only one that comes to mind.

There was chat about Mount Royal, wasn't there? Will that effort come to fruition?

Jews would have to swing pretty hard to the Tories given the Liberals' polling in Quebec. Winning Mount Royal in the next 10-15 years is a possibility, but I really doubt we'll pick it up in 2015.

Here's a more thorough list of seats that may go against the trend:

Conservative gains:

• Louis-Saint Laurent
• Maybe 1-2 seats in the Quebec City area

Liberal losses:

• None that I can think of. That's to be expected for a party that just got it's arse kicked.

NDP gains:

• Sault St. Marie
• Outside chance at Ahuntsic-Cartierville?

Bloc gains
These are all maybes/outside chances

• La Pointe de l'Ile
• A couple rural seats thanks to vote splitting

[DC Al Fine]

The weather guy for the local right wing talk radio station is running for the Greens in my riding. He was also a candidate for the provincial Liberals in 2003.

[DC Al Fine]

Seems like  a stupid move by the Liberals if that's the case.  She's not a "star candidate" and she has no ties whatsoever to Eglinton-Lawrence.  Are there no open ridings for her to run in Peel Region? 

Brampton North & South haven't selected candidates, but they each already have nomination contests under way. She could run in Dufferin-Caledon and still sort of be in Peel

[DC Al Fine]

Bill Blair would easily beat Oliver in Eglinton-Lawrence.  As for Eve Adams, the Liberals should make her run in a longshot riding like Thornhill and hope she fades away because she's dead weight for the party.

Precisely. If she ran somewhere like Thornhill the options are:
1) Great, she won.
2) Oh well, it's not like the riding was winnable anyway.

By running her in a winnable seat like Eglinton-Lawrence, the Liberals introduce option three:
3) F[inks] I can't believe she cost us that seat!!!

[DC Al Fine]

I haven't been following Canadian politics recently, so can I ask a dumb question?: With recent polling, it looks like it's conceivable that the Conservatives will once again win a plurality of seats (but not a majority this time).  In such a scenario, is it a given that they'll once again form a minority government?  Or is there any chance of the NDP propping up the Liberals or joining them in a coalition?

I agree with Hatman that the word "coalition" is a dirty word in Canadian politics. However, a less formal arrangement is probably feasible; e.g. A confidence and supply deal.

[DC Al Fine]

Brutal.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/02/13/poll-gives-joe-oliver-big-lead-over-eve-adams-in-eglinton-lawrence.html

This, coupled with the fact that the Grits are prepared to run an erratic candidate in a riding they (on paper) would be wanting to win back, suggests a thing or two about their internal polling in the riding. If their polling suggested it was competitive, I suspect they would try to find another riding for her. I doubt they would want her in caucus following the election, particularly if there is a minority.

Makes sense especially considering that Brampton South, which has a bit bit of common area with Adam's current riding hasn't nominated a candidate yet.

[DC Al Fine]

Today:

The NDP nomination meeting in Kings-Hants was postponed to Feb 22 due to a snow storm. Surprisingly, it is a contested nomination!

Ice storm in NS today.

[DC Al Fine]

Tories, NDP and elements of the consortium want Harper-Mulcair-Trudeau only debates. French media wants 2 Quebec debates - Rad-Can and TVA. I'm all for this idea, but would formalize it through official party status.

I agree. Debates are best with two or maybe three participants. Having May there wouldn't be the end of the world, but letting two Quebec nationalists into the English debate is just dumb.

[DC Al Fine]

Marc-André Morin has lost renomination to Simon-Pierre Landry. I really like this idea of targeting your own deadwood, wish my party would do the same.

Name names?

[DC Al Fine]

Another turncoat,  great.

To be fair, it was the Saskatchewan NDP. Who else is a Liberal going to work for That's almost like calling Mulcair a turncoat.

[DC Al Fine]

No, it's not, because the NDP is technically the same party in every province. There's lots of Liberals in the Sask Party, that's where Liberals are supposed to go if they don't want to stick with the actual Liberals.

You sound like a certain kind of Reformer circa 1998

[DC Al Fine]

The South Shore-St. Margaret's Tories are having their nomination meeting soon. There are three candidates, including one whom I actually know IRL.

Richard Clark: Used to run the Halifax Universities Conservative Association. Now a staffer in Ottawa. Know him semi-well.

Kerry Morash: Former MLA for Queens. He was defeated in 2006, 2009 and failed to win the nomination in 2013.

Rick Perkins: Long time activist in the local organization and former staffer to Mulroney-era MP, Peter McCreath.

My money is on Perkins.

[DC Al Fine]

Very long Globe on Maritime decline.

Very depressing and very true.

I swear Atlantic Canada will just be Halifax, St. John's and Moncton in 50 years.

[DC Al Fine]

Right now, I'd say Oshawa is actually a Liberal target, but they might abandon it if the NDP decides to target it as well.

Why do you think the Liberals are targeting a seat where they got 7% of the vote last time?

[DC Al Fine]

It already has. Hell, Liberal MPs are already denigrating him anonymously to journalists - which we saw with Dion and Ignatieff.

Any guesses as to which Liberal MPs?

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah, the Tories barely won it in 2006, and lost it in 2008. I would think Pontiac would be a better fit.

I'll take the contrary view. I think, given the resurgence of the Liberals, Louis-Hebert is a better fit. THe Liberals aren't doing particularly well in Quebec City and a decline in NDP support will keep the it in play. On the other hand the demographics of Pontiac are pretty open to the Liberals.

[DC Al Fine]

Still decent. I'd call the election a toss up right now.

[DC Al Fine]

It will be interesting to see how the NDP gains hold up since we are so close to an election. Everyone will be forgetting about politics soon. When people start thinking about it again, it will be almost campaign time. If the NDP can make their surge last for the summer, they're golden.

[DC Al Fine]

Am I correct in saying that Saskatchewan = the South?

No. They're more prairie populist. Saskatchewan = North Dakota maybe.

[DC Al Fine]

One thing to keep in mind in polling in BC is that its often very challenging to get Chinese-Canadians (who often skew Conservative) to respond to surveys - this is a non-issue on the three island ridings but could be more of an issue in the Burnaby seat.

I recall a couple articles saying roughly 60-65% of Cantonese speakers voted Tory last time? Does anyone no what the numbers for Mandarin speakers are?

[DC Al Fine]

The NDP also came very close in the last election in the Prince Albert riding though they lost badly in the Moose Jaw area riding that for some reason is named "Palliser."

The Tories won Prince Albert riding by a 2-1 margin!

I think he mixed up Palliser & Prince Albert.

[DC Al Fine]

Central Nova Liberal candidate resigns

Tory organizer Fred DeLorey seeks the Central Nova nomination

[DC Al Fine]

Can anybody tell me a single policy difference between mainstream New Democrats and 'Red' Liberals?

I can think of a pretty major one between the parties' Quebec supporters

Seriously though, I think you bringing up "mainstream New Democrats" and "Red Liberals" demonstrates the issues with the "Libs & NDP should merge to stop Harper" crowd. The Tories & Alliance had closer cultures, and their voters were generally on the same side in provincial campaigns, and even they lost about 8% of their previous combined vote in 2004. Something similar would happen for the left. Between blue liberals, socialists, and Quebec nationalists, someone will be majorly pissed off at a merger.