The Great Brazil Topic

[DC Al Fine]

What is also interesting is that the ebb and flow of the Brazil equity markets as well as the value of BRL seems to be driven by international investors going in and out depending on the likelihood of  Dilma being out.  The basic idea seems to be that if Dilma is out then the focus of the government can shift to fixing structural problems versus Dilma using fiscal policy to prop up her regime.  Not sure if Dilma  is out it will play out that way but that how the market and mainly international investors are playing.   

That's exactly what investors are thinking. The thing is, they believe whoever takes office if/when Dilma is out will NOT run for reelection in 2018, so they believe whoever takes office would be willing to go through unpopular austerity measures to heal Brazil's fiscal policy.

Remember, there's even a chance that both Dilma AND Temer could fall in a few months. If this happens after December 31st 2016, then an indirect election would be triggered in an unicameral session of the Congress. Then, the Congress would probably handpick an "elder statesman" who wouldn't run for reelection in 2018 and who would be willing to go through all necessary measures to repair Brazil's economy. In fact, I've already heard that Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS) is a name being ventilated for this scenario. Jobim is a former Supreme Court Justice that was also on FHC's, Lula's and Dilma's cabinet. He'd probably tick all the necessary boxes for the job.

What measures would those be?

[DC Al Fine]

I see Ciro Gomes has switched parties yet again, to the PDT. Amusingly, the same party as his Senator ex-wife. Did PROS stop existing?

No, it didn't. Ciro Gomes is the proof of why Brazil's multi-party system is broken. PDT is the seventh party of his political career. Remember, Ciro Gomes himself created PROS when he was unhappy that PSB wouldn't support Dilma's reelection. Then when the PDT offered him the possibility of running for President in 2018, he didn't think twice about making yet another switch.

By the way, here's what Ciro Gomes is up to over the last few weeks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKCbn4aOhDw

Your comment about Brazil's "broken party system" has made me curious. Could you answer these questions:

1) How many of the parties actually have coherent ideologies? Which ones?

2) I kind of get the appeal of PMDB, but why would one vote for one of the smaller non-ideological parties? (Clientelism, individual politicians?

3) How would you (or any of the other Brazilians) change the electoral system to fix the broken system?