Another question

[sny]

Another plausible scenario is if Dean wins the Gore states, NH, and NV (instead of WV in the above scenario).  A possible but less plausible scenario is if the GOP captures 1 of ME's districts and Dean picks Clark as VP and gets Arkansas instead of WV/NV.  

However, for all these scenarios, it seems unlikely that Dean will get the popular vote due to W's southern popularity.  Most Democratic wins are close, and the only big states that I see big wins in are NY and maybe CA.  On the Republican side, they have big wins in TX and medium-sized southern states.  In short, if it goes to the house, the Republicans will win the popular vote and the presidency.

[sny]

Sorry for the double post - this site seems to be incompatible with mozilla for posts longer than about 15 lines.  ...continuing from above...

I think in general, Democats are much more likely to get a majority in the electoral vote.  2000 was an exception since Gore did suprisingly well in a large Republican state - Florida.  I think this is due to Liebermann's presence.  

1 month back, I was expecting FL to be an easy Republican victory in 2004.  I am beginning to see a slight possibility of it being closer if senior citizens turn against the prescription drug bill.