Why the UKIP are scum

[countydurhamboy]

Margaret thatcher never got more than 42% of the vote.

The split of the left into two different parties - labour and the sdp - kept thatcher in power for so long. If you add the total votes from the sdp and labour in constituencies north of watford gap, thatcher would have the same number of tory mps as john major did in 1992.

Actually, in 1979 she won 44%, in 83, 43% and in 87, 42.5%. Also, why assume that in the event of there being no Alliance all their voters would have gone Labour? If you look at all polling evidence it suggests about a third of Liberal, SNP and SDP voters lean to the right wing. In a 2 party system it still would have been 56-44 to Thatcher in 83 and 54-46 in 87.

You don't need to speculate; Lib/SDP 2nd preferences were polled at the time and freefair was right, although if anything he slightly underestimated Thatchers popularity. The 2nd preferences broke very slightly in favour of Thatcher in both 83 and 87. So the result would have been about 57-43 in 83 and 56-44 in 87. Shows you how badly Labour was perceived and how well the Tories did.  

Edit: figures are here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8506306.stm

[countydurhamboy]

You don't need to speculate; Lib/SDP 2nd preferences were polled at the time and freefair was right, although if anything he slightly underestimated Thatchers popularity

Edit: figures are here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8506306.stm

Jeebus, AND in 1992 as well!Then, it would have been something like 52.5-47.5.
Would have been brutal for them in 97 and 01, probably 60-40 at least to a united left block.

Does anyone have current 2nd preference numbers?

Found this for 2010 election. I couldnt find any figures for 2013
However I dont know if this link will work. If it does page 8 onwards on the PDf. It even has 2nd preference by region http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0CGUQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oxfordjournals.org%2Four_journals%2Fparlij%2Fgsq042.pdf&ei=H1L9UOWcI6OG0AXOrIGgDQ&usg=AFQjCNEUk0hygeQDQu4GvWRuAWFstXOpeA

For those who can't be bothered to sift through a PDF,  The Lib Dem 2nd preferences were:
lab 40, con 27, ukip 12, green 21, BNP 1

The obvious thing to conclude from all the 2nd preferences is how toxic the Tory brand has become after 1992; Shows you just how effective new labour's negative campaigning and spin was.

[countydurhamboy]

You don't need to speculate; Lib/SDP 2nd preferences were polled at the time and freefair was right, although if anything he slightly underestimated Thatchers popularity

Edit: figures are here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8506306.stm

Jeebus, AND in 1992 as well!Then, it would have been something like 52.5-47.5.
Would have been brutal for them in 97 and 01, probably 60-40 at least to a united left block.

Does anyone have current 2nd preference numbers?

Found this for 2010 election. I couldnt find any figures for 2013
However I dont know if this link will work. If it does page 8 onwards on the PDf. It even has 2nd preference by region http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0CGUQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oxfordjournals.org%2Four_journals%2Fparlij%2Fgsq042.pdf&ei=H1L9UOWcI6OG0AXOrIGgDQ&usg=AFQjCNEUk0hygeQDQu4GvWRuAWFstXOpeA

For those who can't be bothered to sift through a PDF,  The Lib Dem 2nd preferences were:
lab 40, con 27, ukip 12, green 21, BNP 1

The obvious thing to conclude from all the 2nd preferences is how toxic the Tory brand has become after 1992; Shows you just how effective new labour's negative campaigning and spin was.

You don't think any of that's their own doing? After the 1992-97 parliament, Hague, IDS, Howard and Cameron's wishy-washy strategy in opposition, are you shocked?

I worded that very badly didnt I? I'll explain better. Of course some of it was but New Labour nailed the Tories mistakes directly onto there brand. Lies, hypocrisy, unemployment, economic incompetency, corrupt, split, out of touch, For the rich. These are what people think about when they hear the words "tory party", few people think of owning their own council house for example. The negative campaigning was so successful that even after the feel good factor of around Blair seeped away, the fear of a Tory victory remained. Cameron had almost everything going for him in 2010 and he still couldn't win.
The Tories swiftly returned back to power after defeats in 29,45,64,74. Why not in 97? Yes I agree the incompetence of Major, Hague and IDS hurt them but I feel it was the years of successful Labour spin and negative media coverage that really did it in for them.

If you still think I'm talking rubbish about the power of spin. Which party first comes to mind when raising tuition fees is mentioned? Is it Labour who introduced them and then raised them again breaking their promise? I suspect not, no you, like me and 99% of people will think Lib Dem.

I'd be interested in what a Tory like freefair makes of this? Although this really has nothing to do with UKIP anymore, sorry.