Mister Twister
Jr. Member
Posts: 511
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« on: September 17, 2012, 07:36:02 PM » |
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Assuming an Obama re-election (Which let's be serious, has about a 75-80% chance of occuring)
Louisiana - gone
Arkansas - gone (probably)
West Virginia - Rockefeller is retiring. Gonna be impossible to hold this espeically since Capito will probably finally run. Even Manchin struggled to beat a carpet-bagger in an off year
New Hampshire - Probably gonna be a toss-up. Shaheen is not that popular and NH likes to boot out incumbants
North Carolina - Toss-up. Hagan has only decent approvals
Iowa - Harkin has indicated he will retire. How will the Democrats hold this seat in an off-year
Minnesota - Franken is not THAT popular. If Pawlenty runs, he could be in serious trouble
South Dakota - gone. Johnson is going to retire, he's very sickly. Besides, Mike Rounds has already set up an exploritory committee.
Montana - I heard Baucus was going to retire? If he does and unless Scweitzer runs, the Dems could lose this seat.
Michigan - Levin will probably retire. The open seat should lean Democrat but the Dems will still be forced to spend resources here probably
Alaska - gone. I mean, this Begich guy scraped by with 47% against a convicted felon in a good Dem year.
Chances for Dem pickup?
Kentucky - But in 2010 we had a good candidate that still lost in Conway. Hard to see a state like Kentucky flipping in an off year.a net gain of 5-7 seats for the GOP in 2014.
Oklahoma - I think Inhofe is going to retire. If Brad Henry runs, maybe we can take this seat. But still a long-shot.
Realistically, we're looking at
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