At this point, I thought I'd do a run-through of all the possible situations we could see on November 6th. I'll go in order, from best for Obama to best for Romney.
First we have an Obama blowout, 357-181. Obama sweeps the swing states; virtually a repeat of 2008, except that Indiana and Nebraska-2 flipped. For the sake of argument we'll give Missouri to Obama.
Next we have what is basically the absolute minimum Obama victory, 271-267. There are other scenarios where Obama gets exactly 270, but they're not plausible. Between this and the first map, there's tons of combinations in between.
Next we have a minimum Romney victory. Romney can theoretically win with 269, but this is the minimum outright victory.
Here's the map from the updated Berry/Bickers projection. It seems rather far-fetched, but that's what they say.
According to the study, their average error is five states. That means that, optimistically, Romney could flip the next five closest states in the Obama column: Nevada, New Jersey, Maine, Oregon, and Michigan. It's worth noting that the study has these states at Obama 51% or less; if Romney can move the needle by a point, he can pick up all five. That gives us this map:
Let's go even further. Let's say Romney makes a late play for California. With news of surging gas prices and even a possible shortage, Romney may have an opening. If he can manage to flip the state at the last minute (as Obama flipped Indiana in 2008), we get this map:
This represents Romney's theoretical ceiling. It's a remote possibility, to be sure, but one worth considering.
UPDATE: Based on your response, and for the sake of fairness, I'm including some new maps depicting a possible democratic landslide. This was a little harder for me to figure out, since Obama doesn't seem likely to win over a lot of states in "flyover country." But, it's an interesting mental exercise to see how Obama could absolutely run the board:
This map is identical to 2008, except for one tweak: I've thrown in the next three strongest states for Obama in the Berry/Bickers study: Missouri, Montana, and Arizona. Missouri and Montana are actually fairly plausible, as Obama was very close to winning those states in 2008.
Even at this level, Obama is only leading 383 to 155. It's a great victory, but not that much better than he did in 2008. What would it take for Obama to pull off a true landslide? After thinking about it for a second, I got an idea: why not throw in the states Bill Clinton carried?
That gives him Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, and West Virginia, for a total of 437 to 101. As with all landslide scenarios for 2012, this is the absolute maximum within the realm of remote possibility. It's a great thought exercise, though. To be honest, this started out as a "how might Romney win by a landslide" post, but after hearing your input, I added some food for thought for you Democratic posters. This way, if something really weird happens that no one was expecting, I can say I called it in advance.
