Quinnipiac: Obama DOMINATING in OH & FL

[pa2011]

Guess i can believe Ohio and Pennsylvania could at least be close to accurate, considering Washington Post poll had Romney up 8 in Ohio and even Rasmussen had a poll late last week showing Obama up 12 in Pa. But Florida is a big wow.

[pa2011]

And if they are too optimistic for Obama, all these polls are going to step on and overshadow Romney's effort for another restart/jump start his campaign, essentially drowning out whatever message or optic he planned to use.

[pa2011]

This is my point - the state polling and most of the national polling is suggesting this collapse, but it's not being shown to a large extent on Gallup and not at all on Ras...

Here is what I think is happening.  The 47% comment came out last week, while these polls were being taken.

Undoubtedly, polls will tighten in October. Of course, Obama is not going to win Florida by 8 o 9 points. But you fail to include Obama was ahead in most swing states even before the 47 percent comment, even before Romney's Libya remark and, frankly, even before either the Democratic or Republican conventions. So even if polls snap back drastically, it may just snap back to a tie in Florida and slim lead for Romney in North Carolina and 5 point edge in Ohio and PA.  Also, you don't seem to realize as, each day passes, more and more people make up their minds and stick to it, making wild swings less likely barring major, major bad news/crisis.  Still, I fully expect the Romney is "closing the gap" and "polls tighten" stories. But "tighten" to what?? Obama with 280 electoral votes instead of 340?

[pa2011]

I also am not so sure that Romney's comment on 60 minutes about the uninsured being able to just use Emergency Rooms is not also hurting him bad in either current or upcoming tracking polls. Surprising how many people saw that and remarked how turned off they were.

[pa2011]

Don't understand why you just assume the 47 percent was a blip instead of a seminal moment in the campaign. Problem for Romney is that video seems to have just reinforced concerns about him many voters had already, and crystalized $50 million of summer  attack ads from Obama over Bain, etc, etc. Again, think polls will tighten, but not so sure -- especially less than 6 weeks before the election - that the 47 percent thing should just be viewed as a blip that will work itself out of the polls in a few days. Could be wrong, but sort of seems that the polls are sort of stabilizing.