Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

The government has decided to remove the punishments for the civil servants in the Mink Scandal. The previous government set down a three-person working group to advise it, led by Thomas Rørdam, the same justice who led the witch trial against Inger Støjberg. The group completely rejects the findings in the Mink Commission, and believes nothing illegal happened. So therefore there shouldn't be punishments for the civil servants, including the powerful permament secretary in the Prime Ministry, Barbara Bertelsen. A further step towards banana republic territory, and certain to intensify the dislike against Frederiksen and the perceived power arrogance. Also re-hightlights this issue for the Liberal + Moderate voters and members, who are sceptical of the decision to join a government with Frederiksen at the helm.

Symbolically, this decision is published the day before the opening of a special exhibition 'The Wax Museum of Power' in Copenhagen. The magazine Frihedsbrevet has commisioned the creation of 10 real size wax figures of the civil servants responsible for the illegalities in the Mink Scandal, which will be shown alongside descriptions of their deeds in the scandal.

https://twitter.com/MBrgger/status/1635672648725196804

[Diouf]

The temporary Liberal leadership, Troels Lund Poulsen and Stephanie Lose, has given an interview to Avisen Danmark, where they set out the four goals, they believe the Liberals participation in government should be judged on. The four goals are the introduction of several reforms to secure a strong economy, a significant strengthening of the Danish defence, a responsible green transformation and a welfare society with a 'bigger focus on the individual than the system'. Lose in particular emphasize the need for a green transformation. Interesting whether this means they are willing to big concessions in terms of how strong climate demands, the agricultural sector will face. Of course also worth noting than immigration policy is not one of the four key goals.


https://twitter.com/CasperDall/status/1638974056585129986

[Diouf]

In Epinion's PM approval poll for Altinget and DR, Mette Frederiksen is now under water for the first time. 32% thinks she's doing a good or very good job, while 39% think she's doing a bad or very bad job.

The poll sees the Social Democrats continue dropping, and the government + Social Liberals is therefore significantly down overall. This is at the better end of the polling spectre for the Moderates, to be sure, but they are generally doing good compared to their two government partners. Løkke is doing great as foreign minister, while still playing an active role in domestic politics. The challenges for them are the on-going stories about Jon Stephensen. Also while they are a fairly broadly based party, they are more reliant on highly-educated voters around the capital than their government partners, so some of their core voters might be quite angry if the negotiations about the university reform ends as expected. It sounds like the government (particularly due to Social Democrat wishes) could make a deal with the three centre-right parties to cut down the number of university places in the liberal arts and social science as well as perhaps cutting some of the master studies from 2 to 1.25 years.

Most of the oppositions parties are gaining votes and seats. Still SPP and Liberal Alliance are the two biggest parties. Liberal Alliance is by far the biggest party among 18-34 year-olds with 20.8%. The Conservatives are stuck around their election result, and it still seems up in the air whether Pape can continue after his disastrous election campaign. And if he cannot continue, is there an agreement about the three contenders, Jarlov, Abildgaard and Mercado, about who will succeed him, or could we get a hard fought leadership campaign?
New Right is down, but not out, despite all their chaos. Actually the Alternative is closer to the threshold. Some of that is perhaps just tactical voters from the election drifting back towards SPP and Red-Green Alliance, but the party is also just very quiet.

Government + support party
Social Democrats 20.8% (-6.7%) 38 seats (-12)
Liberals 9.1% (-4.2%) 16 (-7)
Moderates 9.0% (-0.3%) 16 (=)
Social Liberals 3.3% (-0.5%) 6 (-1)
Combined 42.2% (-11.7%) 76 (-20)

Blue Bloc opposition
Liberal Alliance 11.0% (+3.1%) 20 (+6)
Denmark Democrats 8.9% (+0.8%) 16 (+2)
Conservatives 5.5% (=) 10 (=)
DPP 4.7% (+2.1%) 8 (+3)
New Right 2.7% (-1.0%) 4 (-2)
Combined 32.8% (+5.0%) 58 (+9)

Red Bloc opposition
SPP 13.1% (+4.8%) 24 (+9)
Red-Green Alliance 7.6% (+2.4%) 13 (+4)
Alternative 2.2% (-1.1%) 4 (-2)
Combined 22.9% (+6.1%) 41 (+11)


The Social Democrats seems like they will pick experienced MEP Christel Schaldemose as their front-runner in 2024. She has been a MEP since 2006. However, most of the discussion is about another potential candidate. Former Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod wants to run. He was a MEP from 2014-2019, and was re-elected in 2019. But shortly after, he was brought in as Foreign Minister. Then did not get elected as a MP in 2022. The party youth doesn't want him as a candidate due to his 2008 scandal, where he (aged 34) slept with a 15-year old at a Social Democrat Youth event. They say he is a 'candidate of the past', and that picking him as a candidate would go in the opposite direction of the cultural change, the party has worked so hard on in recent years.

[Diouf]

New Right MP Peter Seier Christensen is no longer able to work due to stress. However, the first in line as substitute MP would be Henriette Ergemann, the covid conspiracist, who recently left the party after being its deputy leader for a couple of days. The party does not want her in parliament, so Seier Christensen is not officially asking for sick leave. So the party is now for some time down to being de facto a 2 MP party with Pernille Vermund and Kim Edberg Andersen.

Denmark Democrats has published their budget proposal, which shows the four pillars the party wants to build its policies on:
- Development in rural areas (Move out 10.000 state jobs from cities to towns and rural areas, move education centres for nurses, teachers, social workers and pedagogues to rural areas, increase the broadband development fund by 50%, improve public transportation in rural areas, re-introduce the subsidy for workmen and increase the amount spent on town re-development)
- Better conditions for 'Production Denmark' (Increase the commute deduction, allow students to earn as much as they want while studying without getting their student allowance reduced/removed, introduce vocational lines at high schools, increase funding for vocational schools, increase funding for agricultural climate research instead of introducing new emission taxes.
- Improve health and elderly care (attract more doctors to rural areas by raising their pay checks, annulling their study debt etc., increase funding for psychiatry, increased spending on projects to reduce loneliness for elderly, increased funding for the elderly care as well as making it easier for the elderly to choose between public and private providers of care)
 - A tough immigration and justice policy (lower the benefits for immigrants, create a deportation center for criminal immigrants in a remote area/island to reduce harm for the local population, increase funding for police and prisons, higher sentences for gang crimes)

The funding for the proposals come from reducing development aid, reduce the Ministry of Culture's budget, reduce public administration costs, reform job centres, introduce fees for Danish langugage courses, roll back the extra funds for poor families with many children, and removing immigration projects.

[Diouf]

The government has decided to relax the border controls. The border controls with Sweden will be removed on 12 May, and the border control to Germany will be kept, but in a watered down form. A nice win for the Moderates. And a signal that the Liberals and Social Democrats might be a bit more able to relax policies, when they do them together. Two recent additions to the Liberals further signal that they have moved a bit left on immigration. Ex-MP and ex-MEP Jens Rohde, who turned from Liberal to Social Liberal to Christian Democrat, has now returned to the Liberals. Similarly, Marie Brixtofte, the leader of the Social Liberal group in Gentofte council and member of the Social Liberal executive committee and the daughter of famous former Liberal mayor Peter Brixtofte, has returned to the Liberals. They cite Støjberg leaving the party and the somewhat more relaxed policies on immigration as a readon for the shift.

[Diouf]

Sofie Carsten Nielsen, who led the Social Liberals at the 2022 election, is resigning as MP to become EU Bio Project Director at the Confederation of Danish Industry. She resigned the day after the 2022 election when it became obvious that not only had the party received a shellacking, there was significant doubt about whether she herself would keep her seat. In the end, she held on to her seat but with only 2 467 personal votes, a mere 256 more than her much less known colleague Stinus Lindgreen, who ran in the same constituency. Lindgreen will now take over the seat.

The union members in the private sector voted yes to the new collective agreement by a wide margen. 79% voted yes in a vote with a turnout of a decent 59% among the 400.000 union members. There had for months been concern about the difficulty in getting a deal amid the high inflation, and a potential for week-long strikes, especially when coupled with the government removing the Great Prayer Day as a holiday. However, it seemed like the employers gave the unions a better deal than perhaps expected and the deal was easily accepted in the end.

The parties are moving towards picking their MEP lists. 78-year old SPP veteran Margrethe Auken, who has been a MEP since 2004, has decided to not run again. It's widely expected that the party's other MEP, 25-year old Kira Marie Peter-Hansen, will become their lead candidate in 2024. In the Liberal Alliance, MP Henrik Dahl, has been nominated as lead candidate by the party leadership. The sociologist and author has been a MP since 2015, and been a significant voice in the anti-woke movement and in the battle for higher standards in education. In the Liberals, MEP Morten Løkkegaard, who topped the personal vote chart with 207 558 personal votes in 2019, is expected to be named lead candidate again. Former MEP and ex-Minister Ulla Tørnæs will also be a candidate.

The government is coming under increasing pressure for its plans to reform the early retirement schemes. Currently, there are two different, significant early retirement schemes. The so-called 'Arne Pension', named after a figure from the Social Democratic ads in 2019, and which has become the symbol of the party's workerite turn under Frederiksen. That pension gives you a right to early retirement 1-3 years before the normal retirement age if you have worked 42-44 years on the labour market. It gives you 14 000 DKK a month before taxation. After Frederiksen launched her proposal, the Blue majority at the time launched the so-called 'Senior Pension' which allows you to retire up to 6 years before the normal retirement age, if a doctor believes that you aren't able to work more than 15 hours a week. It gives you 19 300 DKK a month before taxation.

While the 'Arne Pension' clearly won the PR battle, the senior pension has so far had a lot more beneficiaries. At the end of 2022, 9 542 person were on the Arne Pension and 21 658 persons on the seniorpension. And perhaps those numbers were part of the reason why the new government wants to reduce the attraction of the senior pension. It wants to combine the two pensions at a common level at around 15 000 DKK, and then keep the two different ways you can deserve to get it.
However, the government is receiving more and more criticism for this, as it would be a significant worsening for those on senior pensions.

Now, the three leaders of the Liberal Alliance, Conservatives and Social Liberals have joined forces to propose an alternative to the government. They argue that the Arne Pension should be abolished, and the same should happen to the last remnants of the old efterløn early retirement scheme. But that the senior pension should be kept as it is.
Symbolically, it would of course be almost impossible for the Social Democrats to accept a removal of the Arne Pension, even if it's not as popular in practice as expected. But many in the Moderates and Liberals might prefer this proposal, as it keeps their early retirement scheme, and makes early retirement based on your degree of "worn downness", not a general right after working x number of years. In the last week, the government is no longer repeating the lines about this proposal from the government programme, so there are some signs that it might want to move its position somewhat.

https://twitter.com/lehmannkomm/status/1648379849176760328

[Diouf]

Agreement on Budget 2023

The government has agreed a budget for 2023 with SPP, Liberal Alliance, Social Liberals and DPP. Normally the budget for the year is agreed at the end of the previous year, but due to the election and government formation, there was only a formal "continuation budget" approved at the end of 2022. This was the real political budget, although less significant than usual, as we are already so long into 2023, and several key negotiations about big reforms are ongoing outside the budget.

The budget introduces an additional 26 weeks of parental leave for parents of twins or above, several new measures to fight PFAS-pollution, an increased tax deduction for those in-work under 18s, an increase in the stock ownership deduction, 80 mio. kr. to improve the psychiatry and initiatives to improve youth well-being as well as funds to strengthen the police burglary unit and the animal ambulance unit.
 
https://twitter.com/politikdr/status/1650528045118406656

Pressure is mounting on the Moderates in regard to their MP Jon Stephensen. In the past months, he has been criticized for his leadership style as theater director and a case of forgery. Now it has been revealed that the 63-year old MP wrote a 19-year old party member that "you are beautiful, and have the hottest body" late at night. The Moderate Youth is demanding his removal from the party, and no one in the party seems willing to defend him any longer. Lars Løkke said that he regards this case as extremely serious, and that he will meet Stephensen tomorrow to discuss the case. If Stephensen is forced to leave the party, it's of course very interesting whether he will stay in parliament as an independent, or resign and let a new Moderate MP enter parliament. The government currently has 92 seats, so it's not like its life is under threat if he becomes an independent, especially since the 7 Social Liberals MPs are supporting the government as well. But it would damage the government and the Moderates, where people was from the start doubting the quality of their MPs.

Norwegian media have written that Mette Frederiksen is in contention as Secretary General of NATO. There have been no speculation of Frederiksen leaving for an international post domestically at all, so it seemed to emerge out of thin air. And she is of course rejecting all those speculations so far. Interesting if there is actually anything in it. Because, she doesn't seem that high on the American list of important heads of government. Frederiksen has yet to visit the White House, and will be by far the latest of modern Danish PMs to go there, if she gets the chance at some point.

[Diouf]

Jon Stephensen goes on self-paid leave until the beginning of the new parliamentary season in October. So the Moderates will get his replacement MP, Lean Milo, into their group until then. This was perhaps the smallest sanction, that Løkke could get away with giving Stephensen without angering too many in the party, especially in the Youth party. And then he could hope that Stephensen himself decides to step down before he returns from his leave.

[Diouf]

New Voxmeter poll.
The worst Moderate poll for a while after the Stephensen case, New Right now all the way down at 1% a year after polling at 9%, SPP get their best poll in 12 years and a tight three-way battle for being the biggest Blue party.

Government + support party
Social Democrats 21.7% (-5.8%)
Liberals 10.3% (-3.0%)
Moderates 6.2% (-3.1%)
Social Liberals 4.6% (+0.8%)
Combined: 42.8% (-11.1%)

Blue parties
Denmark Democrats 10.4% (+2.3%)
Liberal Alliance 10.2% (+2.3%)
Conservatives 5.8% (+0.3%)
DPP 3.6% (+1.0%)
New Right 1.0% (-2.7%)
Combined: 31.0% (+3.2%)

Red parties
SPP 15.8% (+7.5%)
Red-Green Alliance 7.1% (+2.0%)
Alternative 2.3% (-1.0%)
Combined: 25.2% (+8.5%)

[Diouf]

Where do you expect the Denmark Democrats and the Liberal Alliance to go in the EP? (I guess the question is moot for NB since they've fallen so low...) And do you think DF will get in again?

Denmark Democrats will likely go for ECR. Seems like the obvious choice as a respectable, and somewhat Eurosceptic group.

There is an interview with the LA lead candidate Henrik Dahl about the issue here: https://www.bt.dk/politik/la-spidskandidat-naegter-at-svare-paa-hvor-han-vil-hen-i-eu

He says that it's a difficult choice, because Renew is a group of federalists and we are not, while many of the parties in the EPP are 'much blacker' (presumably refering to the environment), than LA. So it seems like these are the two main options for them. He says the executive committee will discuss the issue. Henrik Dahl himself belongs to the more nationalconservative part of LA, and would absolutely hate being in a group with the woke part of Renew. He himself might more or less fit quite good in ECR, but the party has swung too much in an EU-positive direction to make that work now. So I'm guessing Dahl himself is aiming for EPP, but the party might lean towards Renew.

If DPP and New Right form an alliance, which would be the only logical move considering the threshold but perhaps the mutual dislike keeps them from it, it would boost the DPP's chances. I would be surprised if there wouldn't be enough support for one right-wing anti-EU MEP. A lot will depend on the lead candidates from Denmark Democrats, DPP and New Right, to where the Eurosceptic right-wing votes will go.

[Diouf]

Jakob Ellemann has announced that he is returning to politics on 1 August. After his absence since early February, the questions were starting to mount about whether the Liberal leader would ever return to frontline politics, and particularly with his replacements Lund Poulsen and Lose being more popular than him. So with this message, that debate should now be mostly closed until his return. Lose has announced that she will then return to her post as leader of the Southern Denmark region. But if Ellemann's ratings continue to languish and new leader is needed, Lose has probably established herself as the best alternative now.

[Diouf]

Independent Greens had their party congress last weekend, and announced that they will start collecting signatures in order to be eligible for the next parliamentary election. Below is a good analysis from Altinget about how the party tries to unite the ultra-woke and the very conservative immigrant voters, and the doublespeak it often leads to.

https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/frie-groenne-skal-spaende-fra-det-yderste-woke-til-ortodokse-muslimer

[Diouf]

Diouf, how reliable is this report:

There hadn't been any talk at all about an international top job for her before some Norwegian media mentioned it a few weeks ago. And in relation to the visit at Biden, the story until now has been that Frederiksen has had to wait way longer than any Danish PM in modern time to go and visit the American president. So the PM's office has been quite desperate for that to happen, so it's certainly likely that it's not related to the NATO job at all.
But I mean she is a female PM, which several years of experience as PM and a top minister, so she has some decent credentials. And has become, particularly in this new government, more internationally oriented.
I don't know how the NATO jobs normally work, but it does seem a bit weird to me if we get a Dane, a Norwegian and then a Dane again in charge. So that's maybe what puzzles me the most if this were to happen.

If she, for some reason, ends up in the NATO leadership, who do you think the Social Democrats would pick as leader or would there be a break up of the coalition and snap elections?

The two main candidates would probably be Minister of Finance Nicolai Wammen and Minister of Justice Peter Hummelgaard. Wammen is probably more popular with the coalition partners, and perhaps several of the other Social Democrat top ministers and MPs as a safe pair of hands to continue the coalition government, while Hummelgaard might have more appeal broadly in the party system as someone who has been eager to make grandiose Social Democratic value statements. Wammen is more popular in the public than Hummelgaard, with the latter too often coming across as a bit of pompous, hypocritical wannabe-Napoleon. Recently, Hummelgaard was caught repeatedly breaking the traffic laws, when dropping his kids off in the morning, too which his response was: "It's important for me to drop off my kids in kindergarten almost every morning. I tell myself that it's a small, although poor, compensation for all the hours I spend away from them".
Potential other candidates could be Minister of Environment, Magnus Heunicke, and Minister of Education, Mattias Tesfaye, who are the two most popular Social Democrat ministers. My preferred candidate would be Tesfaye, who has been a very prominent voice in the workerite turn, the party has taken in recent years.
I think any of them would tend to continue the coalition. And then perhaps Hummelgaard a bit more likely to end up in a chaos, where it breaks up, due to his bad temper and his reflexive poor statements about the right wing parties.

[Diouf]

Some further decisions regarding EP candidates. DPP has chosen incumbent MEP Anders Vistisen as their lead candidate. He was in office for the full term from 2014-2019, and then again since November 2022 when the party's sole MEP Peter Kofod became a MP. While he is, like many MEPs, not a particularly familiar face, he is a quite strong candidate with EU experience and good rhetorical skills. With him as the lead candidate, I think DPP has quite good chances of getting a MEP elected, particularly if they do get the alliance with New Right.

Denmark Democrats have chosen Kristoffer Hjort Storm, a current alderman for Elderly Care in Aalborg municipality. So he is a competely unknown figure in national politics, and without any experience in dealing with international affairs. It can help a bit that he has a fairly big role in politics in Northern Jutland, where the party is strong. But generally, seems like a below par candidate. So one would expect the party not to reach its normal national polling numbers.

The Alternative has chosen an even lesser known candidate. The lawyer Jan Kristoffersen without any political experience. The party has announced it will join the Green group if elected, so would support the idea that they could team up with SPP this time. Unless the Alternative sees a significant increase in their polling fortunes, it doesn't seem very likely that Kristoffersen will end up as a MEP.

For the Social Democrat, former MEP and foreign minister Jeppe Kofod has withdrawn his candidature and resigned as a replacement MP, after the waves of criticism against him from the Youth Party.

[Diouf]

Social Democrats, SPP and Alternative have announced that they are forming an electoral alliance for the 2024 EP elections. It's no surprise that SPP and Alternative go together this time as they have fairly similar views, and both will join the Green group. I'm much more surprised that the Social Democrats are also a part of the alliance. I thought the Alternative would consider them and the government too foot-dragging and establishment on climate issues to enter such an alliance. As written above, the Alternative isn't polling very well and they don't seem to have any real noteworthy candidates, so will likely not get any MEPs. So with this electoral alliance, those votes they do get, would not only go towards electing SPP MEPs, but also Social Democrat MEPs.

[Diouf]

Social Democrats, SPP and Alternative have announced that they are forming an electoral alliance for the 2024 EP elections. It's no surprise that SPP and Alternative go together this time as they have fairly similar views, and both will join the Green group. I'm much more surprised that the Social Democrats are also a part of the alliance. I thought the Alternative would consider them and the government too foot-dragging and establishment on climate issues to enter such an alliance. As written above, the Alternative isn't polling very well and they don't seem to have any real noteworthy candidates, so will likely not get any MEPs. So with this electoral alliance, those votes they do get, would not only go towards electing SPP MEPs, but also Social Democrat MEPs.

As I remember it, last time they were in electoral alliance with the Social Liberals and their votes ended up going to the Liberal group in parliament, they were heavily criticized for this. So that leave them either Unity List or SPP to enter an electoral alliance with, but Unity List and the Alternative disagree fundamentally about the EU with the Alternative being far more pro-EU. So that leave SPP but that also bring them in alliance with the Social Democrats, but as both parties sit in progressive groups with a strong focus on the environment and consumer protection, the alliance still makes a lot of sense even if on the domestic scent the Danish Social Democrat are not green enough for them.

The alliance with SPP makes all the sense in the world, and what I predicted they would do. But the link with the Social Democrats do surprise me. I would guess that perhaps SPP must have been very insistent on making the alliance with the Social Democrats, and then perhaps the Alternative had to take it or leave it if they wanted an alliance. SPP have been very close to the Social Democrats in recent years and maybe wanted to "keep the line warm", but I think it would have been very fine for them to run just with the Alternative this time and ensure that they got the benefit of all the Alternative votes themselves.

The Red-Greens are already trying to hammer the Alternative for this. Their EP lead candidate Per Clausen: "The Alternative prefer to provide votes for the Social Democrat refugee, climate and environmental policies over the Red-Greens. I don't understand that choice", and their former Copenhagen mayor Morten Kabell: "So much for the Alternative and Franciska Rosenkilde's critic of the system. They prefer a black Social Democrat in the EP rather than a green representative from the Red-Greens".

[Diouf]

Conservatives have announced that incumbent MEP Pernille Weiss won't stand again after several of her former employees have accused her of bullying and humiliation. Søren Pape says the party has urged her to resign her seat already now for the rest of this term. I guess she would rather leave the party, and continue in the EP. With the Conservatives not polling superwell, it's not certain they would actually get a MEP elected, and now they need to find a new lead candidate.

All parties in parliament, except the Alternative, voted for a law to limit party support for parties who does not enter parliament. Previously, all the parties on the ballot received party support according to how many votes they received. From now on, parties will only get party support if they get really close to crossing the threshold (1.83%). So this means the Independent Greens will lose 1,1 million DKK a year, and Christian Democrats 0,6 million DKK a year.

Is there any unhappiness in SF about this decision? They are in opposition to a Social Democrat led ‘government across the middle’ which is pursuing policies they disagree with and are the largest opposition party to it in both seats and polling. You’d think in such a situation they’d actually try and set out a distinctive position rather than continue trying to tightly hug the Social Democrats.

No, seems to be little internal criticism of anything in SPP. And think many like their line of staying quite close to the Social Democrats, while softly speaking out against it when the government does things they disagree with.

[Diouf]

The NATO summit in Vilnius on 11-12 July weighs quite heavily on Danish politics at the moment. Mostly because the speculation about Mette Frederiksen as a candidate for NATO General Secretary keeps on rumbling. Today, Moderate leader and Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said that the government project needs to be re-confirmed by a potential new Social Democrat leader and PM, because the cross-centre cooperation project was so heavily build on him and Frederiksen's decisions to go all-in on the project. Quite remarkable that a high-ranking minister so directly joins the speculations about Frederiksen's potential future elsewhere, which probably hurts the PM a bit as she can seem absent and too international. It helps position this government even more as Løkke's government, if Frederiksen leaves and is replaced by another Social Democrat.

Additionally, it is expected that a new defence agreement should be reached before the summit to show how and when Denmark will reach 2% of GDP spending on defence, and with some outline of how the money will be spent.

[Diouf]

The talk about Frederiksen's potential future continues to make its mark, not least inside the Social Democrats. The latest talk is that there seems to be a growing acceptance that Minister of Finance, Nicolai Wammen, would probably take over as Social Democratic leader and PM, but that the battle is starting to be about who replaces him as Minister of Finance. That some in the Wammen wing wants one of their one trusted guys, Morten Bødskov, to get the post to ensure a coherent, aligned leadership, while the Hummelgaard wing demands he would get the post, so there is some kind of power sharing. Some in the Hummelgaard wing believes that a threat of a leadership challenge to Wammen could force this power sharing.

[Diouf]

Agreement on streaming tax, support for local media and new media democracy centre

https://twitter.com/DJintweets/status/1668937876338364417

The government has agreed a new media deal with SPP, the Red-Green Alliance, Social Liberals and DPP. The deal introduces a revenue tax for streaming services, 2% if they have at least 5% Danish language content and 5% if they do not. The income from the new tax will go 80% to support Danish movies and 20% towards Danish documentaries and series.

The state subsidies programme for newspapers will be changed so it favours local and regional newspapers more. The max subsidy is lowered from 17.5 million DKK to 12.5 million DKK a year, while the smaller local and regional newspapers will get an increased support.

Additionally, the state will not prolong the contract with failed radio channel 24syv, the Danish Broadcasting Corporation will get a more independent board without political appointees and a big part of their archive will be made available to the public online. The deal also includes support for more Danish language children's content across platforms and establishes a new Center of Social Media, Tech and Democracy to study and make policy recommendations on the role of new media on democracy and well-being

[Diouf]

Today, some news seem to suggest Frederiksen's chance of going to NATO has declined. Wall Street Journal writes that "Poland Says ‘Nie’ to Another Nordic NATO Chief, Splitting Alliance: Warsaw said to oppose front-runner Danish prime minister and to favor Estonian leader", while the Financial Times wrote that "Biden did not lend his full support to Frederiksen at their White House meeting last week, two people briefed on the talks told the FT, puncturing her candidacy’s momentum". Interesting whether the genie can easily get back into the bottle if she ends up not getting the position. Certainly, it has brought back to the surface the disagreements between different parts of her party.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-says-nie-to-another-nordic-nato-chief-splitting-alliance-f5832e4d?mod=e2tw
https://www.ft.com/content/06cecc4d-f24d-48f6-8051-10847f33206c


In other news, Social Democrat MP Mette Gjerskov has passed away. The 56-year old has suffered from neuritis for several months, and has been on sick leave since February. Gjerskov had been a MP since 2005, and reached the pinnacle of her career in becoming Minister for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries in the Thorning-Schmidt cabinet in 2011. She lost the position in a 2013 reshuffle, and then after Frederiksen became leader, Gjerskov was relegated to a position without much influence. She was a part of the furthest left wing in the party on issues of immigration, and therefore even publicly opposed some of the policies now favoured by Frederiksen and most of the party.
Tanja Larsson, who has been her stand-in so far, will take over her seat permanently now.

Ex-DPP MP and leadership candidate Martin Henriksen has joined New Right. This seems mostly like an act of revenge against Messerschmidt after losing the 2022 leadership battle. Henriksen was a MP from 2005 - 19, and quite well-known as one of the most hard-line DPPers. But he never sounded like much of an economically rightwing type, so therefore hard to align with him joining New Right now. He is currently a councillor in Stevns municipality.

[Diouf]

The international top job decisions might further affect Danish politics. Now it's official that Danish EU Commissioner Margrethe Vestager is a candidate for the European Investment Bank top job. If she gets the position, she would take over from December/January, but could likely have to resign from her current position much sooner than that. And in that case, Denmark would have to nominate a new commissioner, at least for the rest of the term. And then it could likely be the same candidate as for the next term. I think it could be a bit hard to come up with a candidate strong enough to take over Vestager's job; I'm guessing von der Leyen would prefer a reshuffle and then a new Danish commissioner in a lower-ranked job.

https://www.ft.com/content/abbe9cad-2cd1-4015-88fb-ff80145acbab

[Diouf]

Higher education slashed to fund increased spending on vocational and welfare educations

The government has reached an education deal with SPP, Denmark Democrats, Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives. The agreement cuts spending on universities in a number of ways. In terms of bachelor degrees, the intake of students will be cut by 8% from 2025. The cut will take place on studies with high unemployment (i.e. primarily humanities). In terms of the master's degrees, 10% of them are cut down from 2 years to 1,25 year while another 20% of them will become business masters, which are meant to be taken while working and with the courses usually spread out over a longer period. The business masters will also be shaped to help attract international labour with a goal of 50% foreign workers in these degrees. These master changes will be phased in from 2028 - 2032.
The funds from higher education will primarily be used to boost welfare educations (nurse, teacher, pedagogues, social workers) and vocational edcuations, while a minor share will go to increase the school budgets.

https://twitter.com/UFM_MIN/status/1673653938631966722

[Diouf]

Broad majority agrees road towards 2% GDP spend on defence

The government has made a new defence agreement with the SPP, Denmark Democrats, Liberal Alliance, Conservatives, Social Liberals, DPP and New Right. The agreement states that Denmark should reach 2% of GDP spending on defence in 2030 at latest. This means 18.6 billion DKK additional spending on defence in 2030. The funds come from the state coffers; the deal does not include any new saving measures, although of course abolishing the Great Prayer Day earlier this year was largely done with reference to additional funds for the defence. The deal sets out three key priorities for the Danish defence: Protecting the realm through improved surveillance and patrols, cooperation and security in the Baltic Sea area and efforts to fight terrorism and manage migration streams in hot spots around the world. The deal is otherwise more of an overall strategic framework for the Danish defence until 2033, with several more specific deals being agreed during the coming months and years.

https://twitter.com/CasperDall/status/1674159511718834177

[Diouf]

While the mature grown-up parties have been busy negotiating agreements, the Alternative have had it's own big internal discussions. The fusion with the Vegan Party helped the party unite the green voices before the 2022 election, and secure the party crossing the threshold. But now the differences between the two parts are creating conflicts. Neatly summarized in a recent milk spat.

At the yearly democracy summit in Bornholm, the Alternative tent had a fridge with different products for the party representatives. There were of course a lot of oat milk in that fridge, but there was also a regular cow milk. This caused a lot of discussions in the party. There were reports of several heated spats about the cow milk, and the leader of the party secretariat had to write in their closed Facebook group:
"Dear everyone, I was responsible for the tent at Folkemødet. I didn't buy the milk, but I put it in my coffee several times and was responsible for it not being removed. I am extremely happy that you from the old Vegan Party are pushing the rest of us from the old Alternative, when it comes to e.g. purchase of cow's milk. On the other hand, I am extremely sad that several of our volunteers at Folkemødet tell me that they have felt violently overwhelmed in regards to the one cow's milk among the four cardboards of plant milk. I don't know who did it - but verbal boundaries were clearly crossed"


https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/konflikt-om-en-liter-komaelk-udstiller-vegansk-utilfredshed-i-alternativet