Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

A Voxmeter poll for Ritzau. Had hoped it would at least have been 50/50, but there seems to be support for the ban. So if other pollsters show similar result, hard to see the government backing down.

Among other things the burning of Qurans should be illegal. 48% for, 30% against.
It would damage Danish security if Quran burnings remain legal. 64% agree, 16% disagree.
It would hurt Denmark's reputation if Quran burning remain legal. 62% agree, 15% disagree.
Making it illegal can be a slippery slope towards further limitations on freedom rights. 47% agree, 30% disagree.

Seven opposition parties have made a common statement against the government's ideas. Only Social Liberals and Alternative are not part of this declaration, and even those parties are split. Incredible how Løkke managed to drag the government's position so far to the left on this issue. There must be some polling results on this question soon, and the results will be interesting to see.

I’m not sure EL would consider Løkke to be dragging the government to the left 😁

On issues like multiculturalism, value relativism etc. I would normally have the Social Liberals and Alternative as the most left-wing parties, or lenient or liberal or which terms one would prefer to use. But yeah, nice to see the principled stances from SPP and Red-Greens here.

[Diouf]

Former SPP leader and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Villy Søvndal, is running in the EP election next year. He is currently a councillor in Kolding. With the highs SPP are currently on in opinion polls, there should be little doubt that the party gets at least two MEPs elected, and he will surely be one of them. He is not running to become the party's lead candidate. That will in all likelyhood be current MEP Kira Marie Peter-Hansen.

[Diouf]

Minister of Defence Jakob Ellemann-Jensen has apologized to parliament for giving them false information with regards to a rushed purchase of an artillery system from Elbit after the existing system was donated to Ukraine. The false information regard how much the Ministry were in contact with other companies and how short of a deadline there was on the Elbit offer.
Normally, these kind of situations could put that minister under a lot of pressure. However, the permanent secretary of the ministry, Morten Bæk, has said that the instances of parliament receiving false information "unequivocally is due to mistakes made in the department and the responsible agency", so there does not seem to be anything concrete to criticize Ellemann for. Also with this being a rare occasion of a majority government, and the minister being the leader of one of the parties, there is probably little chance of a resignation even if there was something wrong about his conduct.

Lars Barfoed, who led the Conservatives from 2011-2014 and has been Minister of Transportation and Justice Minister, has left the party. However, this mostly seems to be due to issues regarding local politics. Barfoed's wife, ex-MP Helle Sjelle, is a member of the Frederiksberg City Council. Her preferred candidate for leader of the Conservatives in the council, Nikolaj Bøgh, lost a tight leadership election 46-54% to Michael Brautsch. Sjelle has left the party as well, and states that that new Conservative leader has no "Conservative compass" and has moved the party away from the constructive, centrist form of Conservatism which have been a constant in the Frederiksberg chapter of the party. She also says he has given all power in the party to those who supported him, and thereby cut off the almost half of the party, which supported his opponent.
After the local elections in 2021, the Conservatives lost the mayoral position in Frederiksberg for the first time since 1909 as a Red Bloc majority elected Social Democrat Michael Vindfeldt as the new mayor. These internal troubles will not make it easier for the party to regain the throne.

[Diouf]

Minister of Defence Jakob Ellemann-Jensen has apologized to parliament for giving them false information with regards to a rushed purchase of an artillery system from Elbit after the existing system was donated to Ukraine. The false information regard how much the Ministry were in contact with other companies and how short of a deadline there was on the Elbit offer.
Normally, these kind of situations could put that minister under a lot of pressure. However, the permanent secretary of the ministry, Morten Bæk, has said that the instances of parliament receiving false information "unequivocally is due to mistakes made in the department and the responsible agency", so there does not seem to be anything concrete to criticize Ellemann for. Also with this being a rare occasion of a majority government, and the minister being the leader of one of the parties, there is probably little chance of a resignation even if there was something wrong about his conduct.

Ellemann has now sacked the permanent secretary Morten Bæk after it has been revealed that the ministry's internal report about the scandal left out information, which showed that they knew about the real deadline of the offer.

[Diouf]

Pressure is mounting on the Moderates in regard to their MP Jon Stephensen. In the past months, he has been criticized for his leadership style as theater director and a case of forgery. Now it has been revealed that the 63-year old MP wrote a 19-year old party member that "you are beautiful, and have the hottest body" late at night. The Moderate Youth is demanding his removal from the party, and no one in the party seems willing to defend him any longer. Lars Løkke said that he regards this case as extremely serious, and that he will meet Stephensen tomorrow to discuss the case. If Stephensen is forced to leave the party, it's of course very interesting whether he will stay in parliament as an independent, or resign and let a new Moderate MP enter parliament. The government currently has 92 seats, so it's not like its life is under threat if he becomes an independent, especially since the 7 Social Liberals MPs are supporting the government as well. But it would damage the government and the Moderates, where people was from the start doubting the quality of their MPs.

Jon Stephensen goes on self-paid leave until the beginning of the new parliamentary season in October. So the Moderates will get his replacement MP, Lean Milo, into their group until then. This was perhaps the smallest sanction, that Løkke could get away with giving Stephensen without angering too many in the party, especially in the Youth party. And then he could hope that Stephensen himself decides to step down before he returns from his leave.

Jon Stephensen has now returned from his leave, and has decided to leave the Moderates. So the government is now down to 91 seats (when adding two Faroese and one Greenlandic MP), so it still has a majority. And even in a vote of confidence, it should still be able to count on Social Liberals at least not voting for a no-confidence vote. Løkke says the parliamentary group decided on Tuesday that they did not trust him to return to the group, and therefore encouraged him to resign as a MP. Stephensen then decided to leave the party. The now independent MP doesn't seem like one we will hear much more from. He is not a trained politician, and probably not one who will take much enojoyment from committee or other parliamentary work. If the Moderates are lucky that Stephensen could be offered a well-paid job somewhere in the cultural world, although much less likely after the above stories, it seems likely that he would resign as a MP.

[Diouf]

A number of parties have candidate news for the European elections.

The Conservative board has nominated MP Niels Flemming Hansen as their lead candidate. He is one of their less known MPs, and is currently the party's EU spokesperson and chair of parliament EU committee. So a decent choice, but not more than that. The two other main candidates are ex-MPs Marcus Knuth and Birgitte Bergman, who both lost their seats in the horrible 2022 election. Knuth was widely rumoured to become the party's lead candidate, but this caused some internal protests as he was deemed too Eurosceptic.

The party's current MEP, Pernille Weiss, has not given up on trying to become the party's lead candidate, despite the leadership and parliamentary group encouragining her to resign after several ex-employees reported about her leadership style with harassment and bullying. A few local associations have nominated her as lead candidate, so it will be decided on the party conference 23-24 September. Party leader Pape and other high-ranking MPs have reacted strongly against those local associations, and this again shows a picture of a party in crisis. The leadership will surely hope that Weiss is not lead candidate, and at best not even on the list. With the party seemingly at best getting one MEP, it seems very likely that whoever ends up as lead candidate will be elected MEP.

SPP's list is getting stronger as ex-MP, and formerly representing the Alternative, Rasmus Nordqvist is also running, alongside lead candidate, MEP Kira Marie Peter-Hansen, and former party leader Villy Søvndal.

In the Social Liberals, nine candidates are running for the lead candidate role. And after the disastrous 2022 election, they have a good bench of ex-MPs, three of them who have thrown their hat in for the position. From the Helveg Petersen dynasty, Rasmus is running to replace his older brother Morten as the party's MEP. Kathrine Olldag and Anne Sophie Callesen are also aiming for the role. The most prominent of the remaining six candidates is the former leader of Social Liberal Youth, Sigrid Friis. It will be decided at party conference on 16-17 September.

[Diouf]

Denmark to donate 19 F16 fighter jets to Ukraine

https://twitter.com/DanishMFA/status/1693301430621200763

[Diouf]

Violent far-left activist turned socialist chief ideologue becomes new leader of the Red-Green Alliance

Today the Red-Green Alliance announced that it's parliamentary group has chosen 48-year old Pelle Dragsted as its new leader. Dragsted replaces Mai Villadsen, who is about to go on maternity leave and cannot run at the next general election due to the party's rotation rules.

In his youth Dragsted was arrested a number of times in relation to violence and vandalism for far-left causes. And in the nineties, Dragsted was a key member of the violent far-left Antifascist Action. He received his last prison sentence in 1998 for vandalism by destroying the barricades around refugee center Sandholm. In the 00s, he drifted towards the parliamentary far-left by joining the Red-Green Alliance. Here he became the party's international secretary in 2005, head of communication in 2009, and political adviser to the leader in 2011. In 2015 he was elected to parliament for the first time, but could only sit for one term due to the rotation rules. But during those four years, he became quite well-known as an eloquent speaker with a reputation as the party's chief ideologue. A role strengthened by his book Nordic Socialism, published in 2021.

In the 2021 local election, he played a significant role in moving Frederiksberg Council away from Conservative hands for the first time in 112 years. He received 4 198 personal votes, only surpassed by the incumbent Conservative mayor, and led the Red-Green Alliance to a stunning 17.6% of the vote. He already left the council in november 2022, when he was elected to parliament with another impressive result. He received 14 129 personal votes in the Copenhagen constituency, only behind the two left-wing party leaders Franciska Rosenkilde and Pia Olsen Dyhr. His result was also the highest personal vote tally among all Red-Green MPs, which cemented his spot as the heir apparent as leader.

Dragsted is known as a very strong voice on issues of economic inequality, and has urged the left wing parties to focus their attention there over shallow issues of identity politics. He has been a part of the movement towards more pragmatic stances on issues like EU and NATO.

https://twitter.com/DRNyheder/status/1693904857760141688

[Diouf]

Ellemann changes Ministry - no longer playing Defence

Today the government announced that Jakob Ellemann and Troels Lund Poulsen are changing ministries. This means the Liberal leader will now become Minister of the Economy, while Lund Poulsen returns to the Ministry of Defence, where he was the stand-in during Ellemann's absence. Ellemann says that he is making the move, both for the sake of the party and the ministry. He says the job in the Ministry deserves someone with 100% focus on it due to the the many big tasks in relation to helping Ukraine and to make agreements and carry out the massive billions of new spending. Additionally, there is a lot of cleaning up to do in relation to a lack of economic control, and lately the case of giving wrong information to Parliament.

So in this way, Ellemann in his new job as Minister of Economy probably hopes he can get more of the credit for the agreements on tax reductions expected this year, while he gets away from the scandal-ridden Ministry of Defence. But also an admission that his original choice of ministry was probably a bit off.


In other news, ex-Conservative leader Lars Barfoed has decided to join the Moderates. So Barfoed has taken what looked like mostly a local issue, and brought it to the national stage. In interviews, Barfoed says the party has moved to far to the right, and allied with parties which it would be hard to build a government on. He says New Right and DPP are too far away from his positions on environment, climate, EU and other big questions. He argues a dynamic, centrist government is needed to solve these questions. He does not rule out running as a parliamentary candidate, so perhaps the 66-year old could return to parliament under his new party colours.

Lars Barfoed, who led the Conservatives from 2011-2014 and has been Minister of Transportation and Justice Minister, has left the party. However, this mostly seems to be due to issues regarding local politics. Barfoed's wife, ex-MP Helle Sjelle, is a member of the Frederiksberg City Council. Her preferred candidate for leader of the Conservatives in the council, Nikolaj Bøgh, lost a tight leadership election 46-54% to Michael Brautsch. Sjelle has left the party as well, and states that that new Conservative leader has no "Conservative compass" and has moved the party away from the constructive, centrist form of Conservatism which have been a constant in the Frederiksberg chapter of the party. She also says he has given all power in the party to those who supported him, and thereby cut off the almost half of the party, which supported his opponent.
After the local elections in 2021, the Conservatives lost the mayoral position in Frederiksberg for the first time since 1909 as a Red Bloc majority elected Social Democrat Michael Vindfeldt as the new mayor. These internal troubles will not make it easier for the party to regain the throne.

[Diouf]

Average of three polls after the summer break, Voxmeter for Ritzaus Bureau, Epinion for DR and Megafon for TV2.

Not a lot of change in recent months. Government parties are down a lot with SPP and Liberal Alliance the main beneficiaries. The bottom hasn't competely fallen out of the New Right despite a tired Pernille Vermund being a one-woman army for the party, which has struggled so much this term. The Conservatives are down on their 22 result, despite the main centre-right party, Liberals, being in a unpopular government. Pressure is mounting on Pape to resign. Recently, the main Conservative newspaper Berlingske called for him to step back. He has been party leader since 2014, and there seems to be little belief that he can turn things around after the spectacular collapse last year. The three obvious potential replacements are Rasmus Jarlov, Mai Mercado and Mette Abildgaard as the conservative, consensus and green choice respectively.

Social Democrats 23.0% (-4.5% since GE22)
Social Liberals 4.4% (+0.6%)
Conservatives 5.0% (-0.5%)
New Right 2.5% (-1.2%)
SPP 13.0% (+4.7%)
Liberal Alliance 11.2% (+3.3%)
Moderates 7.6% (-1.7%)
DPP 3.2% (+0.5%)
Liberals 10.1% (-3.2%)
Denmark Democrats 9.1% (+1.0%)
Red-Green Alliance 7.2% (+2.0%)
Alternative 2.8% (-0.5%)

Government + Social Liberals 45.0% (-8.9%)
Blue Opposition 30.9% (+3.2%)
Red Opposition 23.0% (+6.2%)

[Diouf]

The Moderates have found a bigger name to lead their EP list, so Bergur Løkke has been pushed down to 2nd on the list. Their lead candidate will be Stine Bosse, the 62-year old famous businesswoman. From 2003-2011, she was CEO of the Tryg insurance company. Afterwards, she held a number of board positions, including as chairman of The Royal Danish Theater, Flügger, The Danish Insurance Association as well as roles as directors of the board in Nordea Bank, Aker ASA and Grundfos. From 2015-2022 she headed the European Movement.
It seems quite certain that the party will get a seat, which she will very likely take. A second seat for Bergur Løkke can't be completely ruled out.

https://twitter.com/moderaterne_dk/status/1697305867035566477

[Diouf]

The Danish EU Commissioner Margrethe Vestager goes on leave as she pursues the title as President of the European Investment Bank. The expectation is that we know the new president within a month. If it's Vestager, Denmark will have to appoint a new EU Commissioner. The most rumoured replacement is Minister for Development Cooperation and Global Climate Policy and former MEP, Dan Jørgensen from the Social Democrats. But there is of course also speculation about whether Frederiksen or Løkke themselves could be in play.

https://twitter.com/vestager/status/1699101758981648714

[Diouf]

If Løkke goes, is the Moderate project finished or will it continue? How much does their electoral support depend on Løkke?

In general, to what extent is the breakthrough of "bloc politics" popular or unpopular among party cadres and the general population? Is it widely recognized as a big change in the first place?

It does seem very likely that the project would soon crumble without Løkke. Even though Løkke and some of the other leading figures come from liberal parties, the Moderates do not have any ideological background, e.g. christian democratic, socialliberal etc. Which can be seen in the fact that the party is now starting to pick up figures from the left wing of the Conservatives. So it's ideology is Løkkeism, and once the one who defines what that is leaves, there could be a big potential for disagreements.
The party lives on a lot from Løkke's charisma and experience. And even for him it was only come election time, that the party went from 2% to 8% as he got a lot more unfiltered air time. There are some talented enough people in the party, but nothing really close to that.

It's not that it should be impossible for there to be room for a party of a centrism that is more folksy and focuses on big issues like health care, than the more radical centrism of the Social Liberals with very significant stances on immigration and economy. I would just be more certain in its power to survive if had some kind of ideological undercurrent it could rely on to guide it.

In terms of party cadres, I think only the Moderates are truly excited by the collapse of bloc politics. The left wing of the Liberals might also be so annoyed with the relentless criticism from some of the other right-wing parties, that they are quite happy. But othat than that, I think most in the Liberals and especially the Social Democrats would still prefer a bloc government. The latter are quite happy with their results in the one-party government, although there is also a recognizition that while the Blue Bloc parties might seem more unruly, it was actually the Social Liberals who were 'wacky' enough to take down a government from 'their own bloc'.

It's recognized as a big change, but of course the government quickly got quite unpopular, when the holiday abolition made it seem like the broad government's purpose was mainly to do very tough, unpopular decisions, and the government seemed very self-willed. I still think most Danes would answer in the affirmative about wanting broad cooperation etc., but probably less for the question of a broad cross-centre government.

[Diouf]

Five Alternative MPs want to expel the sixth

MP Theresa Scavenius is now so disliked among her five Alternative MP colleagues that they have asked the party board to expel her. Scavenius was a leadership candidate back in 2020, but lost to Josephine Fock. She then left the party to start her own Momentum party before re-joining the Alternative ahead as a part of the Green consolidation before the 2022 general election.

She is something of a maverick politician, and on top of that has severe personal disagreements with several MPs both in her own and other parties. Sources tell DR that three situations have strained the relationship to leader Franciska Rosenkilde and others in the party. The first one was already the day after the election when Rosenkilde stated that the party no longer wanted a judicial investigation of Mette Frederiksen. Scavenius led an internal riot with very tough attacks on her and got the support of the other MPs so Rosenkilde had to retract her statement. Then in the recycling negotiations, she made some very tough criticisms of Climate Minister Lars Aagaard, including saying he misled parliament, which damaged the party's relationship to the government and made it harder for them in other climate negotiations. Finally, Scavenius has stated that she will vote against the government 's proposed limitations of free speech, where the rest of the parliamentary group are more standard soft lefties, who are very willing to placate Islamic extremists.

[Diouf]

Theresa Scavenius just tweeted: "Earlier today I decided to leave the proces (red. regarding my possible expulsion), because I couldn't get clear answers to my questions, and therefore have lost confidence that the party board will handle the case in a serious and just way. I have had a lot of patience, but that is used up now. I don't know what happens next".

https://twitter.com/TScavenius/status/1702686433146744860

[Diouf]

Scavenius has now been expelled from the Alternative parliamentary group.

In other news, Sigrid Friis, the former Social Liberal Youth leader, impressively managed to fight off three ex-MPs and become lead candidate for the Social Liberals at the EP 2024 election. With the party's low polling figures, it's not a certainty that they win a seat, but there should be an okay opportunity to claim one

[Diouf]

Lars Barfoed is running for the Moderates at the EP 24 election. A quite strong list the new party is assembling.

In other news, ex-Conservative leader Lars Barfoed has decided to join the Moderates. So Barfoed has taken what looked like mostly a local issue, and brought it to the national stage. In interviews, Barfoed says the party has moved to far to the right, and allied with parties which it would be hard to build a government on. He says New Right and DPP are too far away from his positions on environment, climate, EU and other big questions. He argues a dynamic, centrist government is needed to solve these questions. He does not rule out running as a parliamentary candidate, so perhaps the 66-year old could return to parliament under his new party colours.

Lars Barfoed, who led the Conservatives from 2011-2014 and has been Minister of Transportation and Justice Minister, has left the party. However, this mostly seems to be due to issues regarding local politics. Barfoed's wife, ex-MP Helle Sjelle, is a member of the Frederiksberg City Council. Her preferred candidate for leader of the Conservatives in the council, Nikolaj Bøgh, lost a tight leadership election 46-54% to Michael Brautsch. Sjelle has left the party as well, and states that that new Conservative leader has no "Conservative compass" and has moved the party away from the constructive, centrist form of Conservatism which have been a constant in the Frederiksberg chapter of the party. She also says he has given all power in the party to those who supported him, and thereby cut off the almost half of the party, which supported his opponent.
After the local elections in 2021, the Conservatives lost the mayoral position in Frederiksberg for the first time since 1909 as a Red Bloc majority elected Social Democrat Michael Vindfeldt as the new mayor. These internal troubles will not make it easier for the party to regain the throne.

At party conference, a majority voted to keep Pernille Weiss off the list of EP 2024 candidates. But 145 (24%) of 592 delegates voted to keep her on the list. So not a giant rebellion, but still a signal that there are clear pockets of dissatisfaction with the leadership. Many are probably still not optimistic about Pape's leadership, but didn't want to support Weiss after the allegations and some of her wild politicial statements. And with the party board going with the more standard EU-positive lead candidate Niels Flemming Hansen over the more Eurosceptic Marcus Knuth, those wanting to keep a EU-positive line had little reason to do a protest vote.

The Conservative board has nominated MP Niels Flemming Hansen as their lead candidate. He is one of their less known MPs, and is currently the party's EU spokesperson and chair of parliament EU committee. So a decent choice, but not more than that. The two other main candidates are ex-MPs Marcus Knuth and Birgitte Bergman, who both lost their seats in the horrible 2022 election. Knuth was widely rumoured to become the party's lead candidate, but this caused some internal protests as he was deemed too Eurosceptic.

The party's current MEP, Pernille Weiss, has not given up on trying to become the party's lead candidate, despite the leadership and parliamentary group encouragining her to resign after several ex-employees reported about her leadership style with harassment and bullying. A few local associations have nominated her as lead candidate, so it will be decided on the party conference 23-24 September. Party leader Pape and other high-ranking MPs have reacted strongly against those local associations, and this again shows a picture of a party in crisis. The leadership will surely hope that Weiss is not lead candidate, and at best not even on the list. With the party seemingly at best getting one MEP, it seems very likely that whoever ends up as lead candidate will be elected MEP.

[Diouf]

The Liberals are having an internal warfare out in the open about the agricultural negotiations. The more urban, climate-oriented wing want a fairly high carbon tariff on the Danish agricultural protection in order to ensure significant reductions of the Danish emissions, while the more agricultural wing of the party prefer a tariff in the supermarket, so that Danish products are not made more expensive compared to foreign products. Ellemann mostly belong to the former wing, and in a government with the Social Democrats and the Moderates, there should be little doubt that the former version will primarily be what is carried out. Maybe Ellemann can use the pressure from the agricultural wing to extract some more subsidies for the agricultural sector to carry out the transformation.

The parties against the government's Quran Law have announced that they will not enter into so-called clearing agreements on the day of the voting, so as many MPs as possible will have to show up. There probably are several MPs in the government parties against the changes, but no one has indicated a real willingness to vote against the free speech reduction. But in this way most of them are at least forced to physically vote against their conscience.

The Liberals, perhaps somewhat due to feeling pressured by Løkke's big presence, have proposed creating a Minister of European affairs, and thereby cutting that subject out of Løkke's portfolio. The party thinks the time is right with the Danish EU presidency coming up in 2025. Løkke has so far rejected the idea.

[Diouf]

Some of the main stories from the traditional debate at the opening of the official parliamentary season:

- SPP and Red-Green Alliance attacking the Social Democrats for the tax cuts, which are included in the current negotiations about a tax reform

- Denmark Democrats questioning the Liberal speakers on their position in relation to carbon tariffs on agriculture

- Attacks on Løkke by several opposition parties in relation to a case, where he is accused of giving investment fund Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners an unfair advantage in relation to winning a windmill project.

- Attacks on Alex Vanopslagh by Liberals, Social Democrats and DPP after he in a podcast aired the idea about legalizing cocaine and similar drugs via pharmacies.

- Attacks on the PM by Morten Messerschmidt in regards to the loosenings of the immigration policies

- An increasingly nationalistic rhetoric by the Greenlandic Siumut MP Markus Olsen, who is now allowed to talk in Greenlandic in parliament

https://twitter.com/folketinget/status/1709876526664015953

https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/faa-de-vigtigste-pointer-fra-analytikerne-naar-politikerne-holder-maratondebat-i-folketinget

[Diouf]

Government agrees new simplificed cash benefit system; tightens the screw on foreigners

The government has concluded three deals to change the cash benefit system. Instead of one united agreement, the reform was split up into three parts because none of the other parties could agree to all key changes. The cash benefits are the state unemployment benefits, and are mostly for people who haven't been close to the labour market for some time. Those regularly in work are usually members of unemployment insurance fund, which, along with significant state funding, sponsor unemployment benefits for up to two years on a fairly high level. So the cash benefits are for when those funds run out or if you aren't a member of an insurance fund or not close to the labour market.

The main part of the changes were agreed with SPP, Conservatives and Social Liberals. The deal simplifies the cash benefit system, so there are now only three different levels of cash benefits. The maximum level is for those over 30 years, and then there are two fairly low levels, one for people under 30 and one for people who haven't haven't worked a full-time job for at least 2,5 out of the last ten years and lived in Denmark for at least 9 out of the last 10 years. The maximum level will at most be around 85% of the minimum wage for those with short educations, the two other levels are a bit above half of that. The system keeps add-ons for those with children, particularly lone parents, while removing most of the other different criteria and add-ons. The new system makes it easier to work for a few hours a week without getting that amount withdrawn from your cash benefits, to incentivize people to work.

The government then concluded two additional deals.

With Denmark Democrats and DPP, the government agreed a deal to introduce a 37-hour a week work demand of those who haven't worked a full-time job for at least 2,5 out of the last ten years and lived in Denmark for at least 9 out of the last 10 years. The local municipalities will decide which tasks those people will have to do, but it must be tasks above the current public service level. E.g. additional cleaning in institutions or publicly-owned spaces, removing garbage from road and nature areas, doing small repairs or removing weed. This change is expected to apply to around 22 000 persons.

With Denmark Democrats, Liberal Alliance and Conservatives, the government agreed to place the same demands on immigrants entering Denmark before 2008 as those entering after. Because the rules were tightened back then, they only applied for new residents. But now those who were already in Denmark at that time will now face the same demands. This means if they haven't haven't worked a full-time job for at least 2,5 out of the last ten years and lived in Denmark for at least 9 out of the last 10 years, they will receive the lowest cash benefit level and face the new 37-hour-a-week work demand. This change means that about 10 000 persons will see their status in the cash benefit system changed.

[Diouf]

Some news in regards to the EP elections.

Ex-DPP leadership candidate and prominent MP and spokesperson Martin Henriksen will become the lead candidate for the New Right. A quite strong candidate for a party in quite some difficulty.

Liberal Alliance and Conservatives have concluded an electoral alliance. So the Liberals are not a part of this deal. The Conservatives and Liberals have been in an electoral alliance in all previous EP elections, so a quite significant shift. This could point towards the Liberals joining a full-fledged EU-enthusiastic Renew electoral alliance with Social Liberals and Moderates.
The Liberal Alliance haven't said anything about a potential group yet. Likely EPP or Renew.

[Diouf]

Jakob Ellemann resigns as Liberal leader and MP with immediate effect. Stephanie Lose will deputize as party leader with relation to the internal party organization, while Troels Lund Poulsen will deputize in the political roles as Minister of Economy and in the governmental committees. The party will elect a new leader at party Congress on 18-19 November.

[Diouf]

Ellemann said that him and his unpopularity was overshadowing the Liberals' results in the government, and was making it harder for the party to move forward. He says the decision to enter the centrist government was and is right for the party and for Denmark. His spot in parliament will be taken by Heidi Bank, the real estate agent, who was a MP from 2019-2022, but failed to get re-elected in 2022.

It seems like the grand old men in the party have already decided on Troels Lund Poulsen as the replacement. Former PM and Liberal Leader, Anders Fogh, ex-Minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen, ex-Herning mayor Lars Krarup, the Speaker of parliament, Søren Gade and the Liberal group leader (chief whip-ish) Lars Christian Lilleholt have all come out in support for Lund Poulsen as new leader and Lose as continued deputy leader.

But it's not like there are that many other obvious options. Gade himself is very popular, but seems very content as Speaker of Parliament and is not interested in the job. Lose also seems like she is happy where she is as leader of the Southern Denmark region and deputy leader, so doesn't seem like joining the contest either. The last possible option would be Sophie Løhde, the current Minister of Health and the Interior. She has a lot of experience as a MP since 2007, Minister of Health 2015-2016, Minister of Public Innovation 2016-2019, and then now Minister of Health and the Interior. She is a bit like Lars Løkke in that she knows the Danish welfare system inside out, the hospitals, the municipalities, and seem to have some good and coherent ideas of what to do. However, her popularity hasn't been very high in the polls, and with her coming from Northern Zealand, there might be a chance that she, like Ellemann, is not an authentic enough Liberal compared to the farmer Lund Poulsen.

https://twitter.com/skov_chr/status/1716415748568998040

[Diouf]

Do you think that Venstre has any chance of regaining the position they once had in Danish politics, or are they doomed to be just a junior coalition partner?

Well, I think the general tendencies in Western PR democracis of fragmentation and increased competition means that it's hard to see them near the heights of more than 30% in 2001. But it was only in 2019 that they received 23 %. They are extraordinarly pressured right now as two of their former most popular figures, Lars Løkke and Inger Støjberg, now each leads parties which cover a part of the ground formerly covered by the Liberals. If these two manage to establish their parties as lasting institutions, then it will be difficult to grow to even the 2019 heights again.

[Diouf]

Esben Schjørring from Altinget has written the below analysis, where he compares the story of Ellemann to a tragedy like Oedipus.

He argues that Ellemann had the right idea about how to position the party in two key moments, but both times backed down due to protests in his own party, which ended up with the party in bad positions. The first was about cooperation with the Social Liberals, where he seemed to open up for a closer cooperation, before then smacking the door hard in their heads after the other Blue parties and the conservtive wing in his party attacked it. Only now to see centrism and cross-bloc cooperation becoming the new the center of gravity in Danish politics. When the Mink slaughters started, he was very willing to support Frederiksen with fast track laws and quick killings of the Mink, but then turned against it due to opposition in his party, and ended up running as leader of an Anti-Frederiksen bloc. Only to see Frederiksen end up as a very popular election winner, and then having to cooperate with her in government.
He also says the decision to move to the Ministry of Economy after such a short sting back from his sick leave lost him the final bit of trust among voters and other politicians.

So Schjørring's conclusion is that Ellemann should have followed his heart in moving the party towards the centrist position as very green, very pro-EU, pro foreign labour, pro economic reforms and with less focus on immigration policy. It's probably right that it would have looked better if the party and him had moved confidently in that direction instead of sort of by accident landing there in a centrist government. But it's just a bit hard to imagine that he could have moved the party a lot without the internal opposition becoming too big, and the conservative wing and droves of voters leaving anyway. But yeah, maybe the voter loss to the Moderates and partly Liberal Alliance could have been avoided to a bigger degree.

https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/274722-analyse