Danish Local Elections November 16th 2021

[Diouf]

Sønderborg – safe A
Erik Lauritzen has proven himself quite the gifted negotiator since he got Konservative and the German minority party, Slesvigske Parti, on his side back in 2013. In 2017 Socialdemokratiet almost got a majority on its own and there is a good chance, that that will happen this time around.   

Liberals are running Ellen Trane Nørby here as lead. She is a prominent MP and former Minister of Education and Minister of Health, and the top Liberal votegetter in the South Jutland multimember constituency in 2011 and 2019 (narrowly 2nd in 2015). She received 6 365 personal votes in the Sønderborg municipality in the 2019 general election, the second highest after current Social Democrat Minister of Transportation, Benny Engelbrecht.

[Diouf]

Viborg – Lead V
This is one, Konservative really wants. Søren Pape Poulsen, the current national leader of Konservative, was Mayor of Viborg before he went to the national stage and his successor, Torsten Nielsen got and very impressive election in 2017 with more that 7.000 personal votes and a gain of one mandate. But it wasn’t enough, because Socialdemokratiet decided to support Ulrik Wilbæk from Venstre.
Wilbæk is probably the most well-known mayor in Denmarhttps://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politik/danskpolitik/porno-bommert-i-s-borgmesterkandidat-faar-paatale/8586529k, not because of his current occupation, but because he has coached both the female and male national handball teams, winning 1 Olympic gold, 1 World Cup gold and 4 European gold medals.
Socialdemokratiet would also like to retake the Mayoralty, but has the weakest of the candidates in Niels Dueholm, who only got one tenth of the personal votes of Wilbæk and Nielsen. But in the end, Socialdemokratiet probably will hold the decisive mandates.

The Social Democrat lead candidate has not made things easier for himself with this "p*rn-gate". A Socialdemocratic sub-site had been hacked, and now displayed NSFW materials. Instead of warning local party members and tell them to stay off the site, Dueholm thought it funny to write them and say "Look at our nice, new web site" and encourage people to click on the link. Many fellow party members did not find this funny. Dueholm then sent a half-hearted apology, which enraged people even further. There have now been a major crisis meeting to discuss his continued candidature. He is staying as lead candidate. His name recognition has probably increased, but I doubt the case will be good for the party's support.

https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politik/danskpolitik/porno-bommert-i-s-borgmesterkandidat-faar-paatale/8586529

[Diouf]

Local elections are always fun
And yes, his tiny chance is now nonexiting - but Socialdemokratiet will still probably have the deciding mandates, so despite being a twat he'll end up as deputy mayor

Today, he resigned as lead candidate, so won't even get that joy.

https://www.tvmidtvest.dk/viborg/tager-konsekvensen-af-mail-med-pornolink-borgmesterkandidat-traekker-sig

[Diouf]

Læsø – Tossup
I just love tiny islands and especially the shenanigans that happens. The council have 9 members, the smallest in Denmark, and last time Venstre won 4 mandates, almost a majority and quite the result for then mayor Tobias Birch Johansen. But the rest of the council said: “never mind that, let us make Karsten Nielsen from Dansk Folkeparti mayor.” A few days after the election Venstre also joined the agreement to keep the peace at this tiny island of 1.764 inhabitants.
I have absolutely no idea whether Nielsen will keep this, but I doubt it. The mayoralty has changed in the last three elections!

DPP has lost their only mayor in the country as Karsten Nielsen has defected to the Liberals just months before the election. I have no real idea about how popular he is on the island, but considering the Liberals' result last time and Nielsen's decision to choose the Liberals, I will guess that they are now significant favourites.

[Diouf]

Frederiksberg
Yet another candidate for Mayor.
Jan E. Jørgensen, long time (and sole) cllr and MP for Venstre has announced that he is candidate for Mayor, bringing the number of potentiale mayor candidates to four (Konservative, Socialdemokratiet, Radikale and Venstre).
Has he a chance? Perhaps. If Socialdemokratiet and Radikale fail to agree on who should take over the Mayoralty, if the Right loses its majority, Radikale might support Jørgensen, but he is an outsider and it will take som serious chenanigans if Jørgensen should become mayor.

Fun fact. Jan E. Jørgensen is married to Jane Jørgensen :-D
https://politiken.dk/indland/politik/art8234048/S%C3%A5dan-kan-denne-mand-kuppe-de-konservative-og-blive-Frederiksbergs-nye-borgmester

Would he have to give up his Folketing seat if elected mayor?

No, there is no requirement to do so. Some parties have internal rules against being a councillor and a MP at the same time, but Liberals are not one of them. But I'm sure he will leave parliament; I can't remember anyone in recent times being both a mayor and a MP at the same time. The municipalities are so big that is more than a full time job to be mayor, and similarly in parliament no party is so big that they can have a lot of MPs without much to do. Also the media scrutiny of someone who tried that probably be quite intense. Previously, it has happened. The most famous example I remember is Erhard Jakobsen, who was mayor in Gladsaxe for several years while being a MP for the Social Democrats. He only quit as mayor after starting his own party Centrumdemokraterne and causing the 1973 earthquake election. In their heyday, the Social Democrats could easily have 70+ MPs, so I believe it was quite common for mayors or trade union leaders to be a MP without having to do much legislative work.

[Diouf]

The electoral system is pure D'Hondt with 1, 2, 3 divisors. So it's slightly more favourable to the bigger parties than the largest remainder system used for national elections. In local and regional elections, the parties can and mostly do make electoral alliances, which means that their votes are pooled for the first D'hondt distribution of seats.
The Social Democrats and Liberals often do somewhat better than at national elections and hold most of the mayoral positions, with Conservatives also being a significant player in some places. The three old parties have advantages of strong, local organisations in all parts of the country. Also they are often in a position to benefit from incumbency.

[Diouf]

Regarding the electoral system at local and regional elections, two electoral scholars today recommended that the method is changed, so that the Sainte-Laguë Method is used instead of D'Hondt, and that the possibility of making electoral alliances is removed. They say that both aspects help the bigger parties to a larger share of seats than "deserved". D'Hondt in itself helps bigger parties. The electoral alliances were then meant to help the smaller parties to get a chance to get around that disadvantage. However, the scholars argue that in fact in often helps the bigger parties even more, because electoral alliances tend to be formed around the big parties and not just as alliances of small parties. Thereby, the big parties, mostly Liberals and Social Democrats, benefit from the D'Hondt Method twice, in that they benefit both in the round where seats are distributed between electoral alliances, and in the round where seats are distributed inside the electoral alliances where the big party will often be much larger than its alliance partners.

The Minister of Housing and the Interior, Kaare Dybvad, says there are no plans to change the system.

https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/ny-forskning-afsloerer-absurde-skaevheder-i-kommunal-valgmatematik

[Diouf]

Skive – Lean V
Peder Christian Kirkegaard narrowly won last time when he managed to persuade Radikale to support him. The question is whether Radikale will support him this time or even gain representation Once upon a time Skive was a bastion of Radikal strength but these days, Radikale has little support among smaller farmers (of which there is few left anyway). A local list run by former Socialdemokratiet mayor Per Jeppesen might give Socialdemokratiet and their lead candidate Peder Christiensen some problems.

In Skive, both of the major parties, Liberals and Social Democrats, will run on their own this time without any electoral alliances. So their internal battle will be really important. Last time around, Liberals, DPP, Conservatives and LA ran together. This time it seems LA won't even be able to run candidates, while Conservatives and DPP form an electoral alliance. The alliance will win at least one seat, the question is for who if it's only one. DPP got 7.9% last time but their popular lead candidate is retiring. The Conservatives only got 2.2% in 2017, but are booming on the national level. New Right is running this time and will hope to steal much of the former DPP vote.
On the left, SPP and Red-Greens are running an alliance while the Alternative aren't running. Last time Social Democrats had an alliance with the Social Liberals, which secured a seat for the latter. A seat that proved decisive, and they used it to secure another term for the Liberal mayor. Therefore Social Democrats don't want to deal with them again. Instead, the Social Liberals will likely form an centrist alliance with the local list Skive-Listen. The Social Liberal current councillor is not running again, so even with the alliance they might not get enough support.
Finally, another local list is running, the Freedom List, whose lead candidate is slightly known locally for being behind the proposal about impeaching Mette Frederiksen which gathered enough votes to be discussed in parliament. It seems like a protest list + a healthy dose of covid denial; the lead candidate doesn't believe politicians know about the every day life, e.g. in the jobcenter, and wants to stop spending money on local art projects. Interesting to see whether it will gain traction.

The campaign hasn't started and there's no polling yet. An early guess could be Liberals and Social Democrats fairly equal, the left wing alliance slightly ahead of K+DPP, New Right just getting in. Skive-Listen ending with the 2-3 decisive seats.

[Diouf]

Viborg – Lead V
This is one, Konservative really wants. Søren Pape Poulsen, the current national leader of Konservative, was Mayor of Viborg before he went to the national stage and his successor, Torsten Nielsen got and very impressive election in 2017 with more that 7.000 personal votes and a gain of one mandate. But it wasn’t enough, because Socialdemokratiet decided to support Ulrik Wilbæk from Venstre.
Wilbæk is probably the most well-known mayor in Denmark, not because of his current occupation, but because he has coached both the female and male national handball teams, winning 1 Olympic gold, 1 World Cup gold and 4 European gold medals.
Socialdemokratiet would also like to retake the Mayoralty, but has the weakest of the candidates in Niels Dueholm, who only got one tenth of the personal votes of Wilbæk and Nielsen. But in the end, Socialdemokratiet probably will hold the decisive mandates.

Of the three big parties in Viborg, only the Liberals has formed an electoral alliance. They have joined the DPP in an alliance, while both the Conservatives and Social Democrats are running alone. So this could perhaps move a seat to the Liberals once everything is counted. Two of the other alliances are likely to mean a big chance of more smaller parties in the City Council this time. Social Liberals, Christian Democrats and Alternative have formed an electoral alliance, which means the one of them with the highest votes is very likely to get a seat. Something neither of them had probably secured on their own. Liberal Alliance and New Right are also allies, which should give a seat for one of them, most likely the latter. Finally, SPP and Red-Green Alliance have also formed an electoral alliance; both of them are already represented in the council.

[Diouf]

Holstebro – Safe A
Long time mayor, H. C. Østerby decided to stand for reelection, despite being 65 years old (I know, a youngster compared to the US Senate 😉 ) which made the municipality safe for Socialdemokratiet.

In Holstebro, the non-Social Democratic left(Social Liberals, SPP, Alternative & Red-Green Alliance) is again running in an electoral alliance, which should at least secure the three seats the parties won in 2017, and perhaps add one. The Social Democrats are alone, and while big favourites to retain the mayorship could lose a seat again this time due to the electoral alliances. The right wing parties are split in two electoral alliances. One with Conservatives, Liberal Alliance and Christian Democrats, and one with Liberals, DPP and New Right. The electoral alliance should help Conservatives win at least one more than the single seat last time, and then it's one of the tests of how much they can gain from a Liberal party without an incumbent mayor.

[Diouf]

Struer – Tossup
Niels Viggo Lynghøj is retirering which opens a door for Venstre and Mads Jakobsen. This might be one bright spot for Venstre on what looks like an otherwise dark night for Venstre.

The electoral alliances and candidates here seems to favour the Liberals. Firstly, this time they are in an alliance with Liberal Alliance and Conservatives. That alone would have won the Liberals the decisive seat last time around. Also the DPP split, which meant wasted votes and bad blood last time, is not running this time. And DPP is in an alliance with New Right, which should ensure representation for one of them. Social Democrats are on their own, while Social Liberals and SPP run together.

[Diouf]

Herning – Safe V
Dorte West has this one. Venstre might lose a little, but nothing will change in the city of entrepreneurs on the moorlands.

The first local poll I have noticed is from Herning, where Liberals are down but just manages to retain their absolute majority. A new breakaway local list of three current councillors is winning a seat here, while the covid-deniers in the Freedom Party is not finding much fertile ground. An ugly result for DPP, which could be repeated in many areas if current national polls are correct. SPP on this result wins two seats due to the electoral alliance with the Red-Greens. The Conservative lead candidate is former MP Per Ørum. He was elected into parliament in 2005, but had to leave the Conservatives after drunk driving in 2010. He joined the Christian Democrats and towards the end of the term had the decisive seat in parliament keeping the centre-right government in power and necessary for its budgets. Christian Democrats tried to benefit from his role by making him leader, but the party only won 0.8% in the 2011 election. He left the party and tried to start his own party, the Democratic Party in 2012, but that never came even close to running for parliament and was disbanded in 2015. He then joined the Conservative Party again.

Jysk Analyse for TV Midt/Vest.

Liberals 47.6% (-8.0%) 16 seats (-3)
Social Democrats 18.1% (+1.3%) 6 (+1)
Conservatives 7.3% (+3.1%) 3 (+1)
Social Liberals 5.5% (+0.5%) 1 (=)
SPP 4.4% (+0.1%) 2 (+1)
New Right 4.1% (+3.6%) 1 (+1)
Christian Democrats 3.4% (+0.2%) 1 (=)
Citizens' List 3.1% (new) 1 (new)
DPP 2.4% (-3.3%) 0 (-1)
Red-Green Alliance 1.5% (-0.7%) 0 (-1)
Liberal Alliance 1.4% (-0.1%) 0 (=)
Freedom List 0.0% (new) 0 (new)

[Diouf]

Bornholm – Likely A
Long time social democratic mayor Winni Grosbøll retired at the start of the year and Thomas Thors, who was mayor from 2003 to 2005 took over again. Grosbøll was extremely popular but wanted to do something other than being mayor, became CEO of Friluftsrådet and moved in with her boyfriend in Cph (across the street from me :-D ). Thors has just been elected as the lead for the election, and will probably keep the power (but has a history of losing the mayoralty in spectacular fashion)

A quite astounding poll from Bornholm. Made by Jysk Analyse for TV2 Bornholm.
The Social Democrats halved, and the Red-Greens as clearly the biggest party. It seems like the decisive factor is the deeply unpopular budget for 2022, which was recently agreed with an unusually narrow set of parties. Only the Social Democrats and the Liberals made the deal, which cuts quite toughly in some welfare areas while spending a lot of money on buildings, primarily to unite municipial employees at three places instead of their current scattered placement. The red-green deputy mayor Morten Riis has come to be the main spokesperson against the budget, but it has certainly also helped DPPs Rene Danielsson towards keeping the party on a high level. In traditional left-right terms, there is a 12-11 left wing majority, but with the budget in mind I think such a scenario is not as likely. Would be interesting to see whether the Red-Greens would get their first mayor post ever with such a result.

Red-Green Alliance 25.8% (+19.5%) 7 seats (+5)
Social Democrats 17.8% (-16.4%) 4 (-4)
DPP 17.4% (+1.7%) 4 (=)
Liberals 14.0% (-4.6%) 4 (-1)
Conservatives 5.4% (+4.6%) 1 (+1)
SPP 5.2% (+1.7%) 1 (=)
Bornholmerlisten 4.2% (-1.6%) 1 (=)
Christian Democrats 4.1% (-0.1%) 1 (=)
New Right 3.4% (+2.9%) 0 (=)
Social Liberals 1.5% (-1.3%) 0 (=)
Alternative 1.1% (-4.9%) 0 (-1)
Vegan Party 0.1% (new) 0 (new)
Lower Taxes and Duties 0.0% (new) 0 (new)

[Diouf]

Today the campaign officially started as candidates are allowed to put up posters. Below is a picture from Holbæk with the mayor Christina Krzyrosiak setting up her posters.
This also means we will start to have TV debates and hopefully a fair bit of polling as well.

I have made a polling comparison to november 2017 to show the movements on the national level since then. Some giant movements on the right wing side with Conservatives and New Right adding a lot of votes and Liberals, Liberal Alliance and DPP with huge losses. The left wing parties are mostly remarkably similar to their standing in 2017. The only really notable change is Alternative collapsing and SPP gaining ground. Others should mostly be the Moderates, who still haven't officially registered as a party. The combined left and right wing percentages are basically the same with almost a 3% lead for the Red Bloc parties.

Social Democrats 28.4%(+0.1%)
Social Liberals 5.5% (+0.2%)
Conservatives 14.7% (+10.0%)
New Right 6.7% (+4.9%)
SPP 8.3% (+3.3%)
Vegan Party 0.4% (new)
Liberal Alliance 2.7% (-2.7%)
Christian Democrats 1.5% (+0.5%)
DPP 6.6% (-9.6%)
Liberals 12.6% (-7.0%)
Red-Green Alliance 8.0% (-0.1%)
Alternative 0.8% (-3.9%)
Others 4.1% (+3.9%)

[Diouf]

Fredericia – Likely A
The former mayor, Jacob Bjerregaard left the position last year to start as director for a Public Affairs bureau, but before he got the chance to start at his new job, the news broke that he was involved in some nasty corruption. Apparently, he ordered the administration to sell an extremely attractive building lot to him and his wife ahead of another bidder. Not a nice thing, and he lost the job at the PA bureau and is now facing corruption charges. How this will affect the current mayor, Steen Wrist, is to be seen. But Socialdemokratiet will probably loose its majority, but not the mayoralty.
Fredericia seems to collect on colourful mayors. Former mayor, Thomas Banke (Venstre) had a cocaine addiction and some issue with differentiate between his own money and the money of the municipality.

Poll of Fredericia by Jysk Analyse for Fredericia Dagblad.
Social Democrats as expected lose quite a lot after the Bjerregaard scandal, but remains by far the largest party. They no longer have a majority on their own, but with SPP and the Red-Green Alliance, there is still a 12-9 left wing majority.

Social Democrats 44.0% (-10.3%) 10 seats (-3)
Social Liberals 2.0% (+0.8%) 0 (=)
Conservatives 6.5% (+4.1%) 1 (+1)
New Right 4.6% (+3.8%) 1 (+1)
SPP 4.8% (+1.3%) 1 (+1)
Liberal Alliance 1.0% (-0.4%) 0 (=)
Christian Democrats 0.7% (+0.4%) 0 (=)
DPP 9.5% (-2.7%) 2 (-1)
Free Danes 0.3% (new) 0 (new)
Liberals 19.2% (+1.0%) 5 (+1)
Borgerligt Community 0.8% (new) 0 (new)
Red-Green Alliance 6.3% (+2.3%) 1 (=)
Alternative 0.1% (-1.3%) 0 (=)

Silkeborg – Lean A
Another municipality where councilors have been changing parties like crazy! See if you can keep up: Venstre gained two, one from Liberal Alliance and one from Dansk Folkeparti, but also lost two, one to Socialdemokratiet and one to Konservative, SF gained two, one from Alternativet (their sole cllr) and one from Socialdemokratiet, in all 6 councilors who changed party, SF and Konservative being the winners, both doubling their numbers, Socialdemokratiet and Venstre at status quo and Dansk Folkeparti and Liberal Alliance losing out.
All that doesn’t really matter come November. Will Steen Vindum keep the mayoralty? Currently he leads a strange coalition consisting of Venstre, Konservative, Dansk Folkeparti and Radikale and SF. Radikale isn’t that strange but SF is a bit unusual, and before the councilor from Alternativet changes parties to SF, he was also a part of the coalition. Radikale and Alternativet held the decisive votes and choose to support Vindum. Because of all the party changing shenanigans, the leftwing parties has the majority now and I think they will keep that after the election, making Helle Gade the new mayor. But if Radikale holds the decisive mandate, anything can happen!

Poll by Jysk Analyse for TV2 Østjylland, TV MidtVest og Midtjyllands Avis.
The Liberals and DPP fall back, but Conservatives + New Right's gains are of a similar size. This means we have a similar scenario as last time. 15 blue seats, 14 red seats and two decisive seats in the middle. Last time it was a union with a Social Liberal and an Alternative, but this time it looks like Social Liberals will take both of these seats. The Social Liberal lead candidate Johan Brødsgaard has announced himself as candidate for mayor. That might not happen, but on this result, he would certainly get a lot of influence again.

Social Democrats 29.8% (-0.2%) 10 (=)
Social Liberals 5.4% (+1.2%) 2 (+1)
Conservatives 8.8% (+4.4%) 3 (+2)
New Right 3.4% (new) 1 (new)
SPP 6.3% (-0.9%) 2 (=)
Liberal Alliance 3.3% (-0.3%) 1 (=)
Christian Democrats 1.4% (+0.5%) 0 (=)
DPP 4.1% (-2.1%) 1 (-1)
Liberals 28.4% (-4.4%) 9 (-2)
Participation List 0.5% (+0.1%) 0 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 7.1% (+1.6%) 2 (=)
Alternative 1.5% (-0.9%) 0 (-1)

[Diouf]

Yes, I remember Enhedslisten were predicted to come first in Copenhagen last time too...

Although, as I recall that was mostly in polls quite far out from the election. The polls closer to the election showed a Social Democratic lead, although narrower than the relatively clear difference at the end (27.6% - 18.4%).

If I was to make an argument for why they will hold up better this time it's primarily candidate quality. Their lead candidate last time, Ninna Hedeager Olsen, had very little experience and performed quite poorly. This time they are running experienced ex-MP Line Barfoed. And conversely the Social Democrats aren't running an incumbent mayor as lead candidate this time, although Sophie Hæstorp Andersen as the leader of the Capital Region is a familiar name.
Another point in their favour is the collapse of the Alternative, who won 10.5% in 2017. Those voters should be more likely to go for the Red-Greens (and SPP).

[Diouf]

Hedensted – Tossup
Venstre looked like they had it in the bag last election and that Kirsten Terkilsen could continue as mayor, but it was payback time for Dansk Folkeparti, who was left out of the agreement in 2013. Led by MP Hans Kristian Skibby, Dansk Folkeparti threw its weight behind Kasper Glyngø and to make the alliance even stranger, the sole mandate from Kristendemokraterne also joined (along with SF, but that was to be expected). Glyngø needs to with big this time to keep the majoralty, but he has a decent chance especially since Terkilsen isn’t running for reelection. Venstres new lead is Ole Vind, who got a fraction of the votes compared to Terkilsen. Another wildcard is how well (or more likely bad) Dansk Folkeparti will do. DF will probably lose votes to Nye Borgerlige if they are running. We’ll see about that. 

The Social Democrat + DPP + Christian Democrats + SPP combination, who last time had a majority of 14 seats, is on 13 here. So very close whether the same majority could be enough again. Socail Democrats and DPP are in an electoral alliance, which in no way binds the parties after the election, but might indicate that Skibby and DPP have been happy with the cooperation and could very well support the Social Democrats again, although Skibby is also touting himself as a candidate for mayor. SPP will surely support Glyngø again, but the Christian Democrats have said they go to the election with an open mind. And the Christian Democrats could punch above their weight as they have made a clever electoral alliance with the three minor parties, Social Liberals + the two local mini-parties.
Liberals + Conservatives + New Right are also on 13 seats here, so we're not far from them being able to form a majority without having to deal with DPP or Christian Democrats.

Hedensted poll by Jysk Analyse for Horsens Folkeblad

Liberals 35.4% (-4.5%) 10 seats (-2)
Social Democrats. 24.6% (-3.2%) 7 (-1)
DPP 10.2% (-6.3%) 3 (-1)
Conservatives 6.2% (+4.7%) 2 (+2)
New Right 5.5% (new) 1 (new)
Christian Democrats 5.4% (+1.0%) 2 (+1)
SPP 4.0% (+0.1%) 1 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 4.0% (+2.0%) 1 (+1)
Social Liberals 2.4% (+1.3%) 0 (=)
Liberal Alliance 1.7% (-0.1%) 0 (-1)
Elevator List 0.3% (new) 0 (new)
Socialconservatives 0.2% (new) 0 (new)
Alternative 0.0% (-1.0%) 0 (=)

[Diouf]

I'm sorry, 'Elevator List'?

It is a one-man party by Steinar Sørensen, who some years ago had a short term as a SPP councillor. He is apparently an engineer who, after his wife slipped and fell in 2018, has taken a big interest in the local roads and paths. He is and has been complaining about the local municipality to the relevant authorities a number of times, and seem to have won some of them. It mostly seem to be complaints about the lack of municipal repairs, or cases where the municipality deem certain roads and paths to be private (so houseowners around it have to pay repairs) instead of municipal. Some of which bizarrely seems to be due to one of the smaller municipalities, who was merged into Hedested, knowingly adminstrered illegally by registrering certain roads as simultaneously private (so houseowners had to pay repairs) and municipal (so they could enforce municipal rules regarding the looks and use).

Regarding the name:

"My first thought was the the party should be called Tillidslisten (Trust List). Then I noticed the party letter E was available, so I decided to start by picking that. It was the highest up the list available" He then thought it made most sense to have his party starting with that letter. "So I chose the name Elevatorlisten. The name has an aha-effect; it makes people wonder. To me it's a metaphor. An elevator raises people up. I want to raise the quality of the casework. I want to raise the trust in the local municipality".

https://hsfo.dk/artikel/steinars-kone-faldt-p%C3%A5-fortov-og-en-terrier-blev-f%C3%B8dt-derfor-vil-han-s%C3%B8rge-for-bid-i-byr%C3%A5det

[Diouf]

There isn't a lot of polling in these elections, but yesterday the state-owned bookie Danske Spil published its betting lines for several races. While the liquidity in most of these bets is very limited, it gives perhaps some idea of how the election is expected to end up.
Some of the most notable municipalities below plus three around my area in mid/western Jutland.
They still have the Conservatives as arond 60% favourites to keep Frederiksberg. For some time, I would have considered him the underdog with the very narrow win in 2017, his personal scandal + the way Frederiksberg is trending. But perhaps the popularity of their governance is still so high, they can withstand it. And with the investigation of the Mink scandal damaging the Social Democrats in the polls, it could very well end up with a bluer national environment than in 2017. Eva Kjer Hansen is around 63% likely to win in Kolding, where another former Minister Villy Søvndal from SPP is also running for mayor. Considering the abysmal polling for the Social Democrats on Bornholm, I'm surprised they still have Thors a narrow favourite (52-53%) to stay on. In Viborg, they believe hard in Wilbek getting an incumbency boost + still having better relations than the Conservatives with the decisive Social Democrat seats. In Skive, Kirkegaard is a narrow underdog (44%); they must think a fairly likelyhood that the probably decisive local list will turn left or that the left wing will even win outright. Steen Vindum in Silkeborg given even less chances (34%) in an election, where he would likely have to convince at least the Social Liberals to support him again if he is to keep his post.

Copenhagen: Sophie Hæstorp (Social Democrat) to become Lord Mayor 1.08
Frederiksberg: Simon Aggesen (Conservative) to remain mayor 1.55
Vejle: Jens Peter Christensen (Liberal) to remain mayor 1.50
Kolding: Eva Kjer Hansen (Liberal) to become mayor 1.45
Bornholm: Thomas Thors (Social Democrat) to remain mayor 1.75
Esbjerg: Jesper Frost Rasmussen (Liberal) to remain mayor 1.40
Odense: Peter Rahbæk Juel (Social Democrat) to remain mayor 1.08
Skive: Peder Christian Kirkegaard (Liberal) to remain mayor 2.10
Silkeborg: Steen Vindum (Liberal) to remain mayor 2.70
Viborg: Ulrik Wilbek (Liberal) to remain mayor 1.13

[Diouf]

TV2 in their daily local elections programme, revealed the results of a national poll for the local elections.
The poll carried out by Electica.
They only revealed the results for four parties. Hopefully, we will get the numbers for the other parties in the next shows.

Social Democrats 29.8% (-2.6%)
Liberals 19.1% (-4.0%)
Conservatives 12.9% (+4.1%)
DPP 5.9% (-2.8%)

[Diouf]

Viborg – Lead V
This is one, Konservative really wants. Søren Pape Poulsen, the current national leader of Konservative, was Mayor of Viborg before he went to the national stage and his successor, Torsten Nielsen got and very impressive election in 2017 with more that 7.000 personal votes and a gain of one mandate. But it wasn’t enough, because Socialdemokratiet decided to support Ulrik Wilbæk from Venstre.
Wilbæk is probably the most well-known mayor in Denmark, not because of his current occupation, but because he has coached both the female and male national handball teams, winning 1 Olympic gold, 1 World Cup gold and 4 European gold medals.
Socialdemokratiet would also like to retake the Mayoralty, but has the weakest of the candidates in Niels Dueholm, who only got one tenth of the personal votes of Wilbæk and Nielsen. But in the end, Socialdemokratiet probably will hold the decisive mandates.

Of the three big parties in Viborg, only the Liberals has formed an electoral alliance. They have joined the DPP in an alliance, while both the Conservatives and Social Democrats are running alone. So this could perhaps move a seat to the Liberals once everything is counted. Two of the other alliances are likely to mean a big chance of more smaller parties in the City Council this time. Social Liberals, Christian Democrats and Alternative have formed an electoral alliance, which means the one of them with the highest votes is very likely to get a seat. Something neither of them had probably secured on their own. Liberal Alliance and New Right are also allies, which should give a seat for one of them, most likely the latter. Finally, SPP and Red-Green Alliance have also formed an electoral alliance; both of them are already represented in the council.

So as expected, it seems like Viborg will still be a city council with three big parties. Liberal gain one seat, Social Democrats lose one and it's status quo for the Conservatives. So again, it will probably come down to whether the Social Democrat favour the current Liberal mayor Ulrik Wilbek or his predecessor, the Conservative Torsten Nielsen. If it's the latter, they need another party in the mix. Among the small parties, tiny changes can move seats back and forward. The Christian+Socialliberal+Alternative alliance, as expected, looks like getting a seat. Here the Social Liberals gain it, but I still wonder if there could be a surprise gain for the Alternative here amid the national meltdown as their candidate seems better and more well-known than any of the Social Liberals. Liberal Alliance + New Right also gets enough for a seat, and it's very close but the Liberal Alliance edges it out here. Finally, the Red-Green Alliance is just a bit below half of SPP, which means that the SPP gets both seats in their electoral alliance in this poll.

Poll of Viborg by Jysk Analyse for TV Midt/Vest & Viborg Stift Folkeblad

Liberals 32.3% (=) 11 seats (+1)
Social Democrats 25.5% (-3.5%) 8 (-1)
Conservatives 21.0% (+2.4%) 7 (=)
SPP 6.0% (+0.8%) 2 (=)
DPP 3.5% (-2.7%) 1 (-1)
Social Liberals 2.7% (+0.2%) 1 (+1)
Red-Green Alliance 2.5% (+0.2%) 0 (-1)
Liberal Alliance 2.3% (+1.2%) 1 (+1)
New Right 2.0% (new) 0 (new)
Alternative 1.2% (-0.7%) 0 (=)
Christian Democrats 0.5% (-0.1%) 0 (=)
Freedom List 0.4% (new) 0 (new)
What could go wrong? 0.2% (new) 0 (new)
The Local list 0.0% (new) 0 (new)

[Diouf]

So, who's gonna be new Copenhagen mayor?

Sophie Hæstorp Andersen, the lead candidate of the Social Democrats is the major favourite. It would be one of the biggest shocks in Danish political history if she does not end up as Lord Mayor in Copenhagen. It could be close regarding who's the biggest party, but even if the Red-Green Alliance tops the poll, it's hard to see which parties should provide a majority for a Red-Green lord mayor. Maybe if Alternative or any of the other tiny climate parties get a councillor or two elected, they could support them. But they would be far from a majority as all the other parties would rather have a Social Democrat lord mayor. Both the Liberals and Liberal Alliance candidates have already said publicly that they would support the Social Democrats, and then except a centre-right figure on the second-most important post, the Mayor of Technics and the Environment with responsbilities for road, parks, city planning, energy, environment etc.. A post which the Red-Green Alliance has held for the past 8 years.

[Diouf]

Vejle - Tossup
Current mayor Jens Ejner Kristensen has a slim majority of one, who even is a conservative gone independent and this is also one that Socialdemokratiet really wants to retake, having lost it back in 2009. Martin Sikær is the new lead candidate for Socialdemokratiet, not the biggest vote getter, but he has a decent chance. I don’t think that Konservative will steal this, nor that SF will return to former glory and retake the mayoralty they held from 1994 to 2007 (in the smaller previous municipality).

A good poll for current Liberal mayor Jens Ejner Christensen. He only needs to add 4 seats to his party's tally to build a majority. And according to this poll, he could even just do it with just New Right, DPP and Liberal Alliance, so without adding the seats of the Conservatives, who has been non-committal and whose lead candidate also wants to be mayor. And with such a result, it seems likely that the Conservatives would end up supporting the Liberals here. A very big DPP -> New Right shift here with the latter getting an impressive poll result here which would get two of their just three candidates elected.

Poll by Jysk Analyse for Vejle Amts Folkeblad

Liberals 34.6% (+4.6%) 12 seats (+2)
Social Democrats 28.2% (-2.1%) 9 (-2)
Conservatives 8.2% (+1.0%) 2 (=)
SPP 6.6% (-0.5%) 2 (-1)
New Right 6.4% (+4.8%) 2 (+2)
Social Liberals 4.8% (+0.7%) 2 (+1)
DPP 4.2% (-6.9%) 1 (-2)
Liberal Alliance 3.5% (+0.6%) 1 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 1.9% (-0.7%) 0 (=)
Alternative 1.3% (-0.6%) 0 (=)
Christian Democrats 0.2% (-0.4%) 0 (=)
Liberal Citizenlist Vejle 0.2% (new) 0 (new)
Denmark First 0.0% (-0.1%) 0 (=)

[Diouf]

A new poll of Copenhagen by Gallup for Berlingske, and the Social Democrats is not closing the gap on the the Red-Green Alliance, they are now clearly behind them. Would be quite a shellacking for the governing party. It would still very likely be Social Democrat Hæstorp as Lord Mayor, but the negotiations will be quite interesting. Will there be a broad coalition without the Red-Green Alliance, so the party could even get shut out from the second choice mayor post? Could the Red-Green Alliance try to convince other parties to support a non-Social Democrat mayor? I doubt they would succeed, but in this poll, there is a majority with the Alternative, SPP and Social Liberals. Particularly SPP will probably be hard to lure away from the Social Democrats, and if the Social Liberals are to be in such a majority, they would probably have to get the Lord Mayor post.

Red-Green Alliance 22.7% (+4.3%) 13 seats (+2)
Social Democrats 16.9% (-10.7%) 10 (-5)
Conservatives 13.4% (+7.8%) 8 (+5)
SPP 13.3% (+5.0%) 8 (+3)
Social Liberals 10.9% (+2.0%) 6 (+1)
Liberals 7.6% (-0.3%) 5 (=)
Liberal Alliance 3.0% (-0.9%) 1 (-1)
New Right 2.6% (+1.6%) 1 (+1)
DPP 2.5% (-2.5%) 1 (-2)
Alternative 2.4% (-8.1%) 2 (-4)
Other parties 4.8% (+1.9%) 0 (=)

[Diouf]

Another poll, another underwhelming result for the Social Democrats.This time for Odense. It's really starting to look like the cooling off of the Covid-effect + the ghosts of minks past are combining to create a fairly difficult electoral situation for the party. Also another brilliant result for the Conservatives, who more than double their vote share to regain the position as the biggest centre-right party in Odense City Council. Still an unchanged, clear Red Bloc majoriy in the country's 4th largest municipality according to population.

Poll by Jysk Analyse for Fyns Amts Avis

Social Democrats 35.1% (-6.7%) 11 seats (-2)
Conservatives 18.7% (+10.1%) 6 (+3)
Liberals 12.5% (-6.7%) 4 (-2)
SPP 7.8% (+2.8%) 2 (+1)
Red-Green Alliance 6.6% (=) 2 (=)
Social Liberals 6.4% (+1.7%) 2 (+1)
Liberal Alliance 3.0% (+1.0%) 1 (+1)
Alternative 2.8% (-0.3%) 1 (=)
DPP 2.9% (-3.5%) 0 (-2)
New Right 2.8% (+2.0%) 0 (=)
Vegan Party 0.5% (new) 0 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.5% (+0.3%) 0 (=)
Other parties 0.3% (-1.2%) 0 (=)