6th October, Latvian elections

[Diouf]

LTV exit poll

Harmony: 19.4%
Movement For!: 13.4%
National Alliance 12.6%
New Conservative Party: 12.4%
Who owns the state?: 11.5%
Union of Greens and Farmers:9.7%
Unity: 6.9%
Latvian Association of Regions 3.5%

Threshold is 5%

[Diouf]

The two parties who have held the PM position during the term, Unity and Unions of Greens and Farmers both drop significantly, and will likely be the two smallest parties in parliament. Three new parties enter parliament. Harmony remains the biggest party, but will somebody work with them now?

[Diouf]

LTV coverage here: https://ltv.lsm.lv/lv/tieshraide/velesanu-nakts.-saeimas-velesanas-2018/live.360/

[Diouf]

Results should come here: https://www.lsm.lv/velesanu-rezultati-2018/

[Diouf]

This page suggests that Union of Greens and Farmers could join Harmony.

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https://en.rebaltica.lv/2018/08/who-is-who-in-upcoming-latvian-parliamentary-elections/

[Diouf]

First real results are starting to come in.

https://sv2018.cvk.lv/pub/ElectionResults

3.02% counted

[Diouf]

10.5% counted. PAR will probably increase once more of the Riga vote starts coming in. Who owns the state? and ZZS are higher than in the exit poll so far, but some of that could be do to overrepresentation in the (rural?) areas counted first?

[Diouf]

10.5% counted. PAR will probably increase once more of the Riga vote starts coming in. Who owns the state? and ZZS are higher than in the exit poll so far, but some of that could be do to overrepresentation in the (rural?) areas counted first?

Some of this movement seems to be happening now. PAR up to 10.1%, ZZS down to 12.0%, KPV LV down to 14.2%. I guess the movement will continue in that direction, so it could be very close between several parties for 2nd. Right now, I think KPV LV looks like it could hold onto it?

[Diouf]

Current seat distribution

[Diouf]

The narrowing continues. KPV LV down to 13.8% and PAR up to 10.7%. New Conservatives are at 13.1% and with their quite equally distributed vote, they seem likely to finish 2nd in seats, even if they don't manage it in votes.

[Diouf]

KPV LV leader Artuss Kaimiņš says the party expect to get a lot of votes from expats in UK and Ireland, which apparently are yet to come in.

[Diouf]

PAR passes ZZS to enter 4th place. They are 11.000 votes behind New Conservatives in 3rd and 14.000 votes behind KPV LV in 2nd. That seems like a lot of ground to make up, although I guess Riga votes are still underrepresented in the current count. Haven't found any information about whether expats votes are counted today and how many votes are expected.

[Diouf]

KPV LV leader Artuss Kaimiņš says the party expect to get a lot of votes from expats in UK and Ireland, which apparently are yet to come in.

Not an unreasonable expectation if he's right that it still has to come in. The similar Polish demographic (young men, working-class jobs, get their news about the situation "back home" from the internet) tends to give a disproportional share of the vote to Kukiz, which is different in some regards but similar enough.

Let's see if NA can still pass ZZS.

Yep. Found the below comment on Latvian Radio. Google Translated.

"Currently, a quarter of the diaspora's vote is counted. The leader is KPV LV, followed by Development / Par. But the influence of the diaspora on the overall election results should not be overestimated, according to journalist Sallija Benfeld."

[Diouf]

With 16 polling places remaining

[Diouf]

LSM thinks a broad centre-right coalition is the most likely, and focus quite a lot on the role of the President:

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https://eng.lsm.lv/article/features/commentary/latvian-election-results-pose-problem-for-president.a295064/

[Diouf]

New Latvian Saeima will be slightly younger, much more female. The number of Women MPs rise from 19 to 31 in the 100-MP Saema. The average lowers from 49.1 to 47.3 years.

There are talks of a government with New Conservatives, KPV LV, For Development/For!, The National Alliance and New Unity. "The potential next prime minister, Janis Bordans of the New Conservative party (JKP) who has been taking the leading role in negotiations thus far, on Friday afternoon presented his vision of a coalition of five political forces, including a suggested division of ministerial portfolios. In his press conference Bordans emphasized that the proposed model of the five-party coalition will not be extended to include ZZS."We see that there is a unique opportunity to form a government without Harmony and the Greens and Farmers Union," Bordans said.""

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/five-party-coalition-being-discussed-with-zzs-out-in-the-cold.a295807/

[Diouf]

Gobzems demands Saturday decision from New Conservatives

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https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/gobzems-demands-saturday-decision-from-new-conservatives.a302009/

[Diouf]

The government formation process is still a mess, as far as I can see.

Yes, the President says Gobzems has exhausted his attempt to become PM. He will talk with the parties again, and find agreement on who could be the next candidate. Gobzems said he believed the country was heading towards new elections

[Diouf]

We might bizarrely end up with a government led by New Unity, the smallest party in parliament and one that got completely destroyed in the election. However, the other centre-right parties in the governing parties and their leaders have strong personal and political grudges against each other, and others seem to have very few political competences. So by process of exclusion, we are now left with New Unity's Krišjānis Kariņš, a MEP. He hopes to form a five-party government with Development/For!, JKP, KPV LV and National Alliance. He proposes that New Unity has the PM, Finance Minister and Foreign Minister post while the remaining parties share all the other posts.

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/new-unity-proposes-five-party-latvian-government.a303295/

[Diouf]

Latvia gets a new government led by Krišjānis Kariņš

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https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/latvia-gets-a-new-government-led-by-krisjanis-karins.a306967/