Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Diouf]

TV4 exit poll. Company is Sifo. One of those pollsters, who has had SD at 16-17% normally.

S 25,4%
V 9,8%
MP 5,8%
C 9,4%
KD 6,6%
L 5,7%
M 18,4%
SD 16,3%

[Diouf]

SVT1 Exit Poll

V 9,0%
MP 4,2%
S 26,2%

C 8,9%
L 5,5%
KD 7,4%
M 17,8%

SD 19,2%

[Diouf]

I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

Based on SVT's poll, this could have happened. But Greens were far bigger in Tv4, so who knows

[Diouf]

I didn't see any polling company mentioned by SVT, so maybe it's their own invention.

TV4 was made by Sifo, and is quite similar to the Sifo polls before the election, so we aren't much wiser about whether their methods are correct.

[Diouf]

Voter movements on SVT showed that SD has drawn voters equally from S and M

[Diouf]

The official election site is horribly slow here......

[Diouf]

Now SVT has changed from their exit poll to showing results. But it seems to be just straight results, not a projection based on changes in the counted districts. The latter would have been much more helpful...

[Diouf]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

[Diouf]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

All the Allianse parties have made a point about not just letting forward another Red-Green government. As I wrote beforehand, we might end there. But based on everything they said in the campaign, the Allianse parties will try to form a government with this result.

[Diouf]

For those who are convinced this result will mean a Löfven reelection, I would recommend betting right now. Kristersson is quite clear favourite to become PM most places. At Unibet he is only at 1.35 now. Again, I'm not ruling out it could end with Löfven, but it would stride against what the Allianse parties have said during the campaign

[Diouf]

For those who are convinced this result will mean a Löfven reelection, I would recommend betting right now. Kristersson is quite clear favourite to become PM most places. At Unibet he is only at 1.35 now. Again, I'm not ruling out it could end with Löfven, but it would stride against what the Allianse parties have said during the campaign

But if the Center-Left bloc emerge larger, even slightly, I do not see a path to a Center-Right government given how certain Center-Right parties feel about working with SD.

All paths are difficult with this scenario. Some of it will be a war of attrition between the two blocks; how long will they keep saying no to letting the other bloc govern. And for how long will they say straight no, and when will they open for maybe letting the others govern on some conditions. I think a significant part of the bookmaker's calculation is that SD is fairly certain to vote against all centre-left governments, while it is less certain how they will react to a centre-right government (also dependent on which kind of centre-right government, both in terms of parties and policies).

[Diouf]

The general European trend of fragmentation continues, although at a slightly slower rate than expected. The two biggest parties lose a lot of votes, and both S and M lose them to both side of the value spectre. Both parties lost many voters to SD, but also to V and C respectively. It does not seem like this balancing walk will be easier to walk succesfully in the years ahead.

[Diouf]

Jimmie Åkesson, before the coughing sat in,:"Now it is up to you, Ulf Kristersson, do you choose Stefan Löfven or Jimmie Åkesson?"

[Diouf]

143-143 between the blocks in seat distribution right now!

[Diouf]

Kristersson:"The Red-Green government should never have been formed. Now it's time for it to go". Urges Löfven to resign, and let the Speaker of Parliament start the consultation for forming a new government. As expected, he repeats points from election: The Allianse will stay together, and it is the biggest government alternative.

[Diouf]

All Allianse leaders state the same message: Löfven should resign, and they will form an Allians government. It is quite central what SD does. The smartest for Åkesson is probably to state clearly that they will vote against any government that does not make an agreement with them. This will mean that either one or more of the parties decide to actually talk to him (very unlikely) or that the other parties will have to make some uncomfortable cross-block agreement that will go against much of what they said during the campaign (very likely).

[Diouf]

The final result will only be in place on Wednesday. Here there will be a count of the last early votes; those that did not make it to the right polling place for today. So this can be votes from Swedes abroad, or those voting early somewhere far from their normal polling place. This shouldn't be many votes, but it can change a few decimals, which could be decisive in such a close election. There might also be recounts in some places.

[Diouf]

Löfven says that he hopes the damaging bloc politics is now over; and that broad cooperation between the parties will now take place. But he adds that if the Allianse parties insist on bloc politics, it is of course logical that the biggest bloc should govern. It would be wholly illogical for the smallest bloc to govern.

So, like all Allianse leaders, a total repeat of what was said during the election campaign, and we aren't much closer to knowing what will happen.

[Diouf]

Expressen writes that in 2014, the counting of additional votes on Wednesday meant that the Social Democrats dropped 0,2%, while the Moderates and Greens each gained 0,1%. We also still seem to be missing the results from two polling places in Stockholm

[Diouf]

A) S remains in power, drops the Greens and rules either outright together with or with support from C and L, or some combo that includes the Greens or other centre-right parties. V cannot be part of such an agreement because the centre-right wouldn't accept it. This is Löfven's preferred option. It is not something any other party wants though, especially because ruling with S has historically been brutal for a right-wing party.

B) The Alliance forms a government. This is the Alliance's preferred option. Their calculation is that when push comes to shove SD would vote for them over the Red-Greens so they can force Löfven's hand and make S support them from the outside. S of course do not want this because accepting it basically means giving up power forever.

C) A government consisting of a subset of the Alliance that can make themselves broadly palatable by dropping parties toxic to some other people. This could either be C/L to make SD more inclined to support it or M/KD to make the left parties more supportive.

I think A is very unlikely and B probably most likely. That's also what the betting markets were saying before the election.

The thing counting against B is that it will require either Löfven (or the two small left wing parties) or Åkesson to make a big mistake. As you say for S it will set a precedent leading to eternal opposition, and for Åkesson, it would be a historical humiliation to let C and L sit in government after this election campaign.

[Diouf]

The reason I Think my option B is the most likely is that it has the strongest math. Sure, neither S nor SD want it but what can they do? It's not like they can provide a stronger government alternative. What SD has said is that they can't accept a government where C rules the immigration policy (or something like that). I expect C won't have much influence on an Alliance immigration policy.

They can prevent it from taking office. SD's alternative is a M-KD-SD cooperation (which would have more seats than Allianse government, so would be stronger). S' alternative is a cross bloc cooperation with a majority (so also stronger). And even if they couldn't present a stronger alternative, they could certainly present one which would be more favourable to them. It would be a crazy mistake from SD to let an Allianse government take over. All other options would be better for them. Either they get a government they prefer better (M-KD or M), or a government is formed where they have no blame/responsibility. And if possible, it would be an even crazier mistake if S lets an Allianse government come to power.

[Diouf]

An election district in Västra Götaland sent in the wrong results to the Election Bureau. They send in the figures for the regional election instead of the national election. This mistake has now been corrected. This changes the seat figures as one seat goes from C to SD, so now the Red-Green lead has increased to two seats before the count of the last votes on Wednesday.

[Diouf]

All votes have now been counted, and the distribution is still 144 for the Red-Greens, 143 for Allianse parties and 62 for Sweden Democrats. This the preliminary result. Friday and during the weekend, there will be a recount of all votes, and then the official result will be announced. However, normally this will only change very few votes.

[Diouf]

The official results are now out, and the recount did not change anything.

Social Democrats 100
Left Party 28
Green Party 16

Red-Greens combined 144

Moderates 70
Center Party 31
Christian Democrats 22
Liberals 20

Allianse combined 143

Sweden Democrats 62

The new parliament will open on 25 September, but the day before the new Speaker will be elected. This position is quite central as the Speaker has taken over the position in government formation that would traditionally belong to the monarch. The Speaker talks to representatives of the parties and names formateurs, informateurs or PM candidates. In the first two round of voting, a MP needs more than half of the votes to be elected Speaker. If that doesn't happen, the top-two votegetters from the second round will face off in the third round, where the one with the most votes is elected Speaker.

If Stefan Löfven does not resign as PM, one of the first jobs of the new Speaker will be to arrange a confidence vote about the PM. This confidence vote must be held within two weeks of parliament opening. It is important to note that in order for a PM to lose the confidence of the house, a majority of MPs need to actively vote against the PM. So any blank vote is de facto a declaration of confidence in the PM. Based on their statements in the campaign, it currently seems unlikely that the Allianse parties will prop up Stefan Löfven for four more years. Similarly, SD will almost certainly vote against Löfven. So Löfven either resigns or is voted out, and then consultations with the Speaker starts about finding a new PM. The Speaker can then present a new PM candidate for parliament, who will face a confidence vote. Again it requires a majority of MPs to vote actively against a candidate. The Speaker is allowed four chances to present a PM-candidate for parliament. If they all fail to be accepted, there will be a new election within three months.

[Diouf]

Expressen poll of 609 Moderate councillors and local party leaders. Should the party negotiate with SD if it's necessary to gain power? 324 (53%) says yes, 285 (47%) says no. So a narrow majority is opposed to the current party line. Polling of Moderate voters tend to show an even bigger share willing to cooperate with SD.

Dagens Industri newspaper reports that the Allianse will propose Moderate MP Andreas Norlén as Speaker. The 45-year old has been a MP since 2006, and led the Constitutional Committee in the last term. Social Democrats so far state that they will try to reach a cross-bloc deal about the Speaker; a deal that would hopefully lead to a cross-bloc government negotiation as well. If the Allianse parties stay together in this question, then Norlén will very likely end up as speaker. In the last round of voting, you would expect SD to go for him over a left-wing candidate.