Norway election, 11th September 2017

[Diouf]

Immigration Minister Sylvi Listhaug having a great election. Frp close to being the largest party in her district, Møre & Romsdal, where 62,2% of the votes are counted. Frp is at 22,8% (+2,8%), Høyre at 23.7% (-2,5%), Ap at 20,8% (-4,3%).

[Diouf]

KrF will probably just cross the threshold, but hard to see them avoid getting their worst result since its two first in 1933 and 1936.

Hareide just giving his speech now. Claiming that the election became a presidential contest between Støre and Solberg (Funny, how both of their parties are down then, eh?) and that the electoral games have played too big a part (Would perhaps have been avoided if you had been clearer about what you wanted, and then not change it 4 days before the election).

[Diouf]

Huh, you're right.

These small changes are really weird to my Dutch eyes. And Ap being the Biggest Loser as opposition leaders is just embarrassing.

Not that I really want to defend Ap, but you could very well argue that at least some of this is a structural development. The general process of fragmentarization certainly seems to be happening in Norway as well with the three biggest parties declining. In fair proportional electoral systems, it will be hard to maintain huge uneven voter coalitions. For Social Democratic parties it is difficult to avoid this tendency as it is difficult to reconcile many different voter groups, particularly young well-educated voters with very left wing values on immigration, environment etc. and traditional working class voters with right wing values.

But Ap's campaign was certainly very poor, and it will be quite interesting how the post-mortem analysis will play out in the party. Will the internal criticism focus on the proposed tax increases, the attacks on Frp on immigration or their lack of a Green profile. What direction will a new leader choose on these subjects?

[Diouf]

V now at 4.1% according to NRK, but no idea where that comes from...

They talked about some examples of Venstre progressing with quite a bit in some traditional strong Høyre areas, which could help them the last step above the threshold.

Oslo is still only 54,6% counted, so even if they back a bit there, it will still be one of their strongest areas.

[Diouf]

Venstre at 4.1 on TV2 and 4.2 in NRK's prognosis with around 80% counted. Looks like they will just make it

[Diouf]

Still no votes counted from today in Bergen, where the upcoming World Championships in cycling is apparently causing major transport problems, so that it took a long time to collect votes to the counting places.

TV2 says that KrF is as good as safe, while it is likely that Venstre will make it as well.

[Diouf]

The party leader round will take place at 00.30 in parliament.

89% counted now. Venstre at 4.1%

[Diouf]

TV2 says that Venstre only needs 2.4% of the remaining 10% of votes that needs to be counted, which is highly likely. And most of the remanining votes are in Bergen, a big city, as well as a bit in Oslo and Trondheim

[Diouf]

It seems like the question is whether it will be a continued H-Frp government or a H-Frp-V government. KrF has ruled out government participation with Frp. They state that if they cannot get a H-V-KrF government, it will go into "constructive opposition", i.e. no formalized cooperation agreement and no promise to support the government for the full term. This will obviously make the government less stable, but will also give it more flexibility as it can then make deals with Ap alone for example, unless of course it is something crucial for KrF, which could make it tear down the government if overlooked.

It is a bit surprising that Venstre is considering joining the government, even with Frp, but as the last four years have shown, you are not shielded from "government wear and tear" as a support party. Government participation could in fact make in more obvious where V is getting its policies through, e.g. education or climate. However, it will clearly be quite difficult for V and Frp to reach an agreement on many issues, so if this proves to be a serious option, government negotiations could take a while.

I don't think it's particularly likely that Frp will leave the government. Both government parties held up well, and the internal government cooperation seems to have worked quite well. And while neither of the two small centre-right parties are particularly fond of Frp, I think the election outcome means that they don't have that much legitimacy in forcing Frp to leave the government. And Frp will probably not accept it either. Some talk about the possibility that immigration minister Listhaug could be left out of the next government as a sign of goodwill to the two small parties, but it would be madness by Frp to sacrifice their holy cow like that. They could perhaps let her move on to Justice or something where you can also be tough, and where she can expand on her profile.

[Diouf]

For the first two weeks after the election, Erna Solberg lead talks with the three other party leaders in the governing bloc. KrF has been reluctant all the time, and today they as expected announced that they won't participate in a new government. The party will go into their so-called "constructive opposition" where they will not take down the government, but won't promise its support for the whole term nor be an automatic partner in negotiations. So the question is whether Venstre will join the government now or stay out as in the last term. The party seems quite willing to go into government, and hope that this will give them a better chance to promote their wins. However, it will probably be a while before we find out. The whole process for the 2018 budget is about to start now, which will likely delay government negotiations or even be a part of them.

[Diouf]

The new government is likely to be in place next week. The three parties, Høyre, FrP and Venstre, have made serious progress in negotiations, and will present the results for their parties on Sunday. If the agreement is approved in all three parties, the new government will likely be presented during next week. There haven't been a lot of policy details in the media yet, although VG writes that the compromise on immigration will be tightened family reunification rules and an increase in the number of quota refugees through the UN programs.

Former FrP party leader Carl I. Hagen has been critical of Venstre's inclusion in the government, partly because Venstre recently joined with the centre-left parties to block Hagen from joining the Norwegian Nobel Committee which picks the Nobel Peace Prize Winner, but also for sound strategical reasons. Hagen argues it that there are no benefits from including Venstre in the government. There would be benefits if KrF joined as well in a majority cabinet, but Venstre's inclusion alone could make things more rather than less difficult since there will be more intra-cabinet disagreements but the same amount of parliamentary struggles. Hagen would prefer a Høyra-FrP cabinet which could roam free, and make deal with Sp and Ap on issues like immigration and climate. 

[Diouf]

The parties approved the government programme today, which was presented later in the day. 
It as expected includes several proposed actions to liberalize the economy. The government's alcohol monopoly shops will get expanded opening hours until 21.00 at workdays and saturdays  and normal shops will get easier to open on sundays (unpopular with KrF). There will be cap on the local property tax, which will mean it will have to be lowered in at least 70 municipalities. More competition in the public sector, which will be opened up to more private companies. Remove the license fees for the state broadcaster, and likely decrease overall funding, which will instead happen through regular taxation.

While Høyre largely runs the economic policies, there are some clear wins for Venstre and Frp in other areas:

The wins for Venstre: There will be no oil exploration in the sensitive areas Lofoten, Vesterålen and Senja. Banning fur farming per 2025 (likely another case for Sp to complain wide and loud about). Keep the generous tax benefits for electric cars and introduce higher enviromental taxes for companies. Increase in UN quota refugees if spontaneous asylum seeking stay at the current low levels. Increased paternity leave.

The wins for FrP: Niqab and Burqa ban. Tougher rules on family reunification. More difficult to get Norwegian citizenship (8 years' residence). More police officers.

The government will of course need to find majorities for all these proposals. The cabinet names are relatively similar to the previous government. Siv Jensen, Frp leader, stays as Minister of Finance, Trine Skei Grande, Venstre leader, will be become Minister of Culture, while Frp star Sylvi Listhaug will get a superministry with both justice and immigration.