There's no way that ordinary swing-voter people don't punish the Tories for not having a coherent plan after Brexit. I base that off them only having a 10-seat majority.
Ordinarily, I would agree with you. Once again, I think the big caveat is the leadership in each party for the next election. But I just cannot see the UKIP vote staying anywhere close to the 12.6% it got nationwide last year. The Labour vote was a mess during this referendum. I think the UKIP vote will drop and be disproportionately Conservative. I can't see any hit by the Conservatives being any worse than the hit taken by Labour.
UKIP vote drop? I would think that most of those Conservatives, who might lend their vote to UKIP purely due to Euroscepticism, ended up staying with the Conservatives in 2015 due to the referendum pledge. I would expect UKIP to rise, perhaps especially with former Labour voters who saw almost all Labour MPs in favour of remaining. Most of those who voted UKIP in 2015 bought the whole package of anti-globalization, so I'm pretty sure they don't see this vote as "job done" at all.
