Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

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Election just called for 18. June

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The latest poll before the election which Jens referred to:

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A few election posters of the leading candidates in Aarhus in the Eastern Jutland multi-member constituency.



An Alternative poster with their leading candidate in the constituency, the unknown Niko Grünfeld. Like the party leader, he was a part of the entrepreneur school the Chaos Pilots. Now he has his own education company which focuses on "social capital in the health sector". If they cross the threshold, he will certainly get a seat.
Below him is Liv Holm Andersen, which received the second of three Social Liberal seats in Eastern Jutland in 2011. The first seat is that of party leader and Deputy Prime Minister Morten Østergaard. She is one of the least competent MPs, but will probably just get in again. Despite the Social Liberal decline, Østergaard will probably ensure that they get two MPs in this constituency.



Jonas Dahl got two months as Minister of Taxation before SPP left the government. Now he is the SPP group leader, a position that can be somewhat compared with a whip I guess. In 2011, he got the first of two SPP seats in the constituency. With a bad result, 10 seats or below, they could lose one of their seats. However, he will get the first seat no matter what.



In this picture, you can see the two candidates which will probably get the most personal votes in the constituency. Social Democrat Nicolai Wammen is a former Mayor of Aarhus, and topped the chart in Eastern Jutland last time around with the fifth highest number of personal votes countrywide. In the last four years he has been a minister; first for European Affairs, then for Defence. Therefore, he will probably top the chart again.
His main challenger will be the Liberal Jakob Ellemann-Jensen. In 2011, he was elected as the second Liberal in Funen, but is expected to top the Liberal charts in Eastern Jutland this time. He is the party's European spokesperson, and the son of former Liberal leader and Foreign Minister Uffe Ellemann-Jensen, who received very high numbers of personal votes in Eastern Jutland, often ending in the very top of the national list.
In 2011, both parties received 7 seats in Eastern Jutland; this time one or both of them will probably lose a seat.
You can also see Enhedslisten (Red-Green Alliance)'s party letter Ø. Their top candidate in Eastern Jutland, Nikolaj Villumsen, is not that well-known, so they will probably mainly focus on their old-style way of only using the party and not the candidates. They will probably double their seats here from 1 to 2.


At the top you can see the eloquent, and sometimes slightly arrogant, Liberal Alliance top candidate Ole Birk Olesen. He is a former journalist, and owns the popular right-wing blog/debate site "180 degrees", and is the party's financial spokesperson. Him and the party have a lot of support, among especially young male students, in Aarhus, and he will probably get the company of an additional Liberal Alliance MP from the constituency this time.
Below him is the Liberal Fatma Øktem who I will probably vote for this time. She pipped her husband to the seventh and last Liberal seat in the constituency in 2011. Two of the Liberal women, who were elected here in 2011, are not running this time, which, along with 4 years as an MP, should help her secure another term, even if the Liberals lose one or even two seats in Eastern Jutland.



The Syrian-born Naser Khader lost his seat in the Copenhagen environs in the 2011 election, and has spent the last four years as a radio host and a fellow at the Hudson Institute. Both these jobs were related to the situation in the Middle East. After the attacks in Paris and Copenhagen, he returned to Danish politics, and was the man behind the "Stop Nazi Islamism" campaign. The current Conservative MP for Eastern Jutland Tom Behnke is not running, so unless the Conseratives melt down completely and only get 4-5 seats, Khader will probably win back a seat in parliament.

I haven't seen any DPP or Christian Democrat posters in Aarhus yet. They are probably focusing on the rural and suburban areas and in smaller villages where they will probably get far more votes than in urban Aarhus. Also DPP's posters have some times been removed in areas like this by far-left activists.

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Which one is DPP? The O?

Yes

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Eek... would Venstre actually have them in a coalition?

Probably not. Lars Løkke has said that his government would campaign in favour for changing Denmark's opt-out on justice and home affairs to an opt-in in the referendum planned for 2016. Like in any EU-referendum, DPP campaigns against further EU-integration, so while this is not a very important question in the election campaign, it probably means that such a coalition would not happen. Also DPP very much enjoyed their position in 2001 - 2011, where they could make agreements with the government in most areas, but also be in opposition to it when there was a scandal. The DPP leader Kristian Thulesen Dahl often talks about the mistakes of the SPP; he will not be in government for any price. Basically, they are in some ways still a party of protest, and would not like be in a position where they should take responsibility for everything that happens. Some have speculated whether the DPP would join the government AFTER the EU referendum; this would be an unprecedented form of coalition building, but perhaps not completely unlikely. However, there could soon be new EU referendums, which by the logic would then mean that the government would be dissolved again; not that pratical.

It is the preferred government among voters:
Norstat poll for altinget.dk

Liberals - DPP 26 %
Social Democrats 16%
Social Democrats - Social Liberals - SPP 14%
Liberal - Conservative 13%
Social Democrat - Social Liberal 9%
Liberals 4 %
Don't know 17%

Ironically, the two least preferred government are the two most likely outcomes. Many classic Social Democrat voters do not like the Social Liberals, but it is hard to see the Social Democrats going for it alone. They would still have to come to agreements with the Social Liberals, and will see that as easier to do inside a government. I can only see it happen if the Social Liberals are completely crushed and only end up with 5-6 seats, which does not look likely to happen.

As mentioned above, I don't think Liberal-DPP is likely. The Conservatives are probably still the most governmental of the other right-wing parties, but I don't think they would enter into another Liberal-Conservative coalition. They know that the Liberal Alliance would hound them continously for not being right-wing enough on economic issues, they look like they will be a very small party, and it is quite likely that their party leader Søren Pape Poulsen will not be elected. Most experts predict that he will only get in if the Conservatives get 9 seats or more. An extinction-threatened party without a leader will probably not join a government. The Liberal Alliance has claimed that they are open to entering a government, but that it should be a four party majority government like the Alliance in Sweden. If they could get a government with as clear goals on tax cuts and lower public spending as the Swedish Alliance, then they would probably agree to it. However, the DPP would prefer not to enter government, and if they do it is extremely unlikely that they, as perhaps the biggest party, would accept such an economic platform. A Liberal - Conservative - Liberal Alliance could perhaps be a possibility, but in addition to all the problems mentioned above, I think the Liberals would be afraid that they would be drawn to far away from the centrist welfare voters which would then prefer the Social Democrats or DPP. Also there would be a lot of bickering between the two small parties on which ministries to get in order to get the honor for all the nice tax cuts.

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I'm curious: are there any Voting Compasses? Curious whether I'd get V, O, or I.

By the way, many thanks for all your contributions, Charlotte Hebdo. Really interesting.

Most of the tests are for candidates, not parties, although the answers from same party candidates are probably very similar.

http://politik.tv2.dk/valg2015/kandidattest

Here is one for TV2, I will try to translate

First of you need to pick the two most important topics for you. They are:
Employment, hospitals and health, refugees and immigrants
Social policy, education, the elderly, taxation, economy
Children and youth, foreign and defense policy, law and order
Environment and climate, EU, animal welfare

Then there's 18 statements where you can answer:
Completely disagree, partly disagree, neither nor, partly agree, completely agree

The actual statements are:
There should be more employees in the public sector
It is neccessary to introduce user fees in more areas of the health sector
The Danish immigration and refugee policy is too tight
Too many people stay on benefits because the benefits are too high
There is too much focus on tests in the Danish schools
In the long term it will be necessary to introduce user fees in areas of the elderly care
The top tax bracket should stay
The Danish salaries are so high that they damage the Danish economy
There should be more economic support for families with children
Denmark should be less active in international military operations
The sentences should be longer for violent crimes
The green taxes for companies should be increased
Denmark has given up too much power to the EU
It should be made more beneficial to go from traditional farming to ecological farming.

The last four statements depend on the topics which you chose:
Employment:
More should be done to ensure that EU-immigrants do not undercut Danish wages
The amount of time you need to work to re-earn your unemployment benefits should be cut from 12 to 6 months.

Hospitals and health:
One of the main priorities for the health sector should be more coherence so that the same doctor and the same nurses follow the patient throughout the treatment
Increased competition from private companies makes the public health sector perform better.

Refugees and immigrants:
It should be easier to expel foreigners which have commited crimes
There should be more differentation in the immigration system, so people from some countries get an easier access than others.

Social policy:
The economic inequality in the Danish society should be reduced.
The obligation to support your partner when considering eligibility for cash benefits should be removed.

Education:
Pupils in schools should be graded earlier than they do today (8th grade, around 14 years old)
There should be a bigger focus on discipline in schools.

Elderly:
More money should be allocated to elderly care, even if this means that other welfare areas would get less resources.
There should be income adjustments in the elderly care so wealthy elderly should pay for some of the services they get.

Taxation:
Property taxes should be increased in order to lower income taxes.
The VAT should be differentiated so that it is lower on healthy products, and higher on other products.

Economy:
It requires more investments in the public sector to strengthen the economy
If conditions are made better for the private sector, then it will help our competitiveness and the economy overall

Children and youth:
There should be an increased focus on families with social problems and a decreased focus on well-functioning families. (Don't really understand this question)
The day-care centres should focus more on teaching the children discipline.

Foreign and defense policies:
Denmark should increase its defence budget.
Denmark should decrease its development aid budget.

Law and order:
The age of criminal responsibility should be lowered from its current level of 15 years.
There should be less focus on punishment and more focus on resocialisation.

Environment and climate
It is an important political task to get the Danes to reuse more than they currently do.
It would be good for both the environment and the economy if more was done to transform the society into using more renewable energy.

EU:
Denmark should remove its opt-out on justice and home affairs.
In the long term, Turkey should be able to join the EU.

Animal welfare:
Fur farming should be illegal
Battery hens should be illegal.

Then you have to state which party you voted for at the last election

Whether you are male (mand) or female (kvinde)

Your age

And where you live. If you want to see the candidates from my pictures, then choose Aarhus Kommune. But there are 97 others to choose from

Then it shows the candidates you agree and disagree with the most, and the score for each party.

[Diouf]

Wow, many thanks for this!

Although I think I got 2 different questions, probably because I selected the EU as something important. The questions are "Danmark bør afskaffe retsforbeholdet i næste valgperiode" and "Tyrkiet skal på sigt kunne komme med i EU", I guess the first question relates to the opt-outs that Denmark has with regard to the euro and immigration while the second one is about Turkey entering the EU (as if that would happen).

My result for Aarhus: 5 I candidates (82%, 81%), a V candidate and an O candidate (80%) and then a whole bunch of candidates from V, C, I and O until 75%, lol. Doesn't seem to give a clear result, but that's exactly what I expected. Party results at the end of the page: I 83%, C 78%, O 76%, V 74%.

Sorry, I didn't realize the questions actually changed. I chose immigration and economy as I think those two, along with health, usually tops the charts.
The first statement you got was that Denmark should remove its opt-out on justice and home affairs, which will be voted on in late 2015 or early 2016. The second is in the long term Turkey should be able to join the EU, and yes not a very relevant question at the moment.

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I have updated the post with the different questions you get with each different topic now.

My own party list:
Liberals 86%
DPP 77
Social Democrats 73%
Christian Democrats 70%
Conservatives 67%
Social Liberals 64%
Liberal Alliance 63%
Alternative 59%
SPP 54%
Red-Green Alliance 42%

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For Aarhus:
Social Liberal 82%
Social Democrat 80%
Christian Democrat 79%
Alternative 76%
SPP 76%
Red-Green 72%
DPP 64%
Venstre 53%
Conservative 46%
Liberal Alliance 44%

I would vote Social Democrat, although I'd be willing to lend a loan vote to another member of the red bloc teetering on the threshold to help them get more seats.
Odd that one can get a high result for both Soc Lib and Christian Dems, though. Then again I didn't choose social issues as my important issue.

Yeah, there is no abortion, gay marriage or teach christianity in school question where they are far apart. But generally they are both in favour of open immigration policies, mostly for christians for one them of course, and a broadly centre-right economic policy with a stated focus to help the weakest.

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(Bloomberg) -- Danish PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s Social Democrat-led bloc leads opposition 50.5% to 49.1%, according to Voxmeter poll published by Ritzau.

OK, how accurate do Danish polls tend to be? Because Stephen Kinnock's missus i.e. the Danish PM was fully present for a blow-up just under a month ago.

Not fantastic I would say. In 2011, a weighted average the day before the election gave the red bloc 51.9% and the blue bloc 48.1%. The result was 50,2% to the red bloc and 49.7% to the blue bloc. They underestimated the Liberals by about 2.5%, and overestimated the SPP by 1.4%. As far as I recall no polls, not even the exit poll, had showed the Liberals as the biggest party, which they ended up being, and very few had the blocs as close as they were.

At the local elections in 2013, DR/Epinion had an incredible polling debacle. First of all the polls varied a lot; crudely one half of them had terrible results for both the Liberals and especially the Social Democrats, while the other half had them both to remain with rather high figures. DR/Epinion then made of their own kind of poll; an exit prognosis; a weird mixture between an exit poll and a standard poll. They thought that it was so good that they even had to publish it at 14 50 when there was still hours to the polls closed. The exit prognosis showed the Social Democrats at 22.7%, a gigantic defeat, going back 8%. It was adjusted slightly, but it still showed a terrible result for the Social Democrats, which made the PM concede early on election night that it has been a grave defeat for them etc. However, when results started flowing in later in the evening, they were not at all bad for the Social Democrats. In fact, they ended up on 29.5%, only going back by 1.2%.

The polls generally did fine at the European elections 2014, but the exit polls were again off. DR/Epinion underestimated DPP by 3.6%. Additionally, their seat prediction model was either wrong, or their hosts didn't understand it, as they continiously misstated which parties were the closest to losing/gaining seats.

Unlike the UK, the tabs are not published, so we need to rely on the media to get additional information about voter movements etc, which they don't do a lot. Therefore it is hard to really know why the polls have changed so drastically from clear blue bloc leads to basically neck-and-neck since the election campaign started. Have the doubters been dominated by 2011 red bloc voters, who are now making up their mind and voting red bloc again? Or have the Social Democrats actually managed to draw back some voters from the DPP? We don't really have any idea; the media are ofc most focused on the polls themselves, and the movements up and down from day to day.

BTW the latest JP/Wilke poll gave the red bloc 51.6% and blue bloc 48.4%. Probably the best poll for the red bloc since the 2011 election.

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As I wrote earlier, the most likely scenario seems that it will still be a Social Democrat - Social Liberal government if the red bloc wins, but we are getting near scenarios where it could be the Social Democrats on their own. A DR/Epinion poll today, which show the blue bloc lead 50.9 - 49.1%, has the Social Democrats on 26.1% and the Social Liberals on 4.5%. That means only 8 seats for the Social Liberals and 46 for the Social Democrats. In such a scenario I think the Social Liberals would start to consider very seriously whether they should join a government as the single, very junior party. The main reason is of course that it would be more difficult for them to get a say in the government, but there is also simply a practical problem. They would probably have and want at least 3, and probably 4 ministers. This would only leave 4 regular MPs to handle all the committee work and other parliamentary activities. That is too little for a government party, so either they would have to bring in ministers from outside their MPs, which will probably cause quite some dissatisfaction among them, or, as they did a decade or two ago, make their ministers resign as MPs so their replacements get into parliament, which again will make the press go crazy as they did then, "more people on the gravy train" etc. These hurdles could be overcome, but along with a lessened influence and a recent beating at the election, it could make them want to stay out.

This is just one (really bad) poll for them; another one today has them on 7.4%, which would of course be another situation entirely. But their polls have generally been downwards trending, so not as given as it has looked for 4 years, that the Social Liberals would join a new red government.

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50/50 and Christian surge?

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Not much substantial is happening in the campaign, so the noticeable things in the last few days have mainly been single candidates coming with obscure proposals which are then quickly ruled out by said party's leadership.

The Danish People's Party's cultural spokesperson Alex Ahrendtsen proposed that there should be a tax on commercial activities which uses foreign words. He believes the creative class prefer English because they think it makes them sound smarter; with this proposal he wants to talk to their patriotic heart, "if they have one". Another problem is of course the immigrant shops in Inner Copenhagen which uses Arabic in its promotion.

The Alternative candidate Søren Rønhede wants to ban all food products with artificial additives, flavouring and colouring. By his own estimate, that would mean a ban on around 80 % of the food products.

In the more serious end, several Social Democrats want the property taxes to rise, including MPs and a candidate which was previously a part of the independent economic advisers to the government. However, the Social Democrats, like the blue bloc parties, are opposed to this because it is very unpopular. A recent poll showed that only 16% was in favour. However, the Red-Green Alliance, the Alternative, the SPP and crucially the Social Liberals are in favour of increased property taxes, so with some Social Democrats wobbling, the right wing parties have a great opportunity to campaign against this. I would expect it to feature prominently for them in the coming days.

[Diouf]

The first poll has been made on the Faroe Islands which will elect two MPs. It looks like the two current MPs will be reelected, one blue and one red.

The full results of the polls have not been reported, as far as I can see, but the three most important parties are:
Sambandsflokkurin (cooperates with the Liberals) 26.1%
Javnaðarflokkurin (cooperates with Social Democrats) 24.6%
Tjóðveldi (socialist, separatist, republican) 20.6%

The two seats go to the two biggest parties unless the biggest party has more than twice the number of votes as the second largest party. It looks like Edmund Joensen and Sjúrður Skaale will be reelected. However, as you can see the difference is not very big, especially as the turnout is lower than at elections to the Faroese parliament, and the current Faroese centre-right government is not very popular, so two red seats are not out of the question. Tjóðveldi has said that they would prefer the Prime Minister which would give the biggest degree of independence to the Faroe Islands. However, normallt they have cooperated with the SPP and it is quite hard to imagine them supporting a centre-right government in Denmark.

In Greenland, the dominance of Siumut (Social Democrat) and Inuit Ataqatigiit (Socialist) is so big that it is extremely hard to see an outcome other than those two red parties getting a seat each. However, the leading Siumut candidate is Aleqa Hammond, who was Greenland's PM from 2013 to 2014. She had to resign after being caught in using the Treasury as her private bank. During her term she loaned 200 000 kr(£27 000), which she used for private trips to Paris and Iceland. A week ago, as the full scale of her actions was disclosed, she was reported to the police. Furthermore, she was very outspoken in terms of independence and did not have the best cooperation with Denmark. In all likelyhood, she will still be elected, but she could be a more troublesome partner than the Greenlandic MPs usually are. Perhaps that could tempt even many of the red bloc MPs to vote for her as unworthy to be an MP if she is sentenced for her use of the Treasury.
IA, like their Faroese counterpart, has said that they will not commit to one bloc, but will choose the PM which is best for Greenland's interests. Again, it is difficult to imagine a socialist and separatist party supporting a centre-right government. It seems like a way to try and push some of their demands further, for example a Minister for the Arctic

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As much as you would hate it you might fit the Christian Democrats best..

Don't be silly, if I had a vote I wouldn't waste it on a party that won't even break 1%

Hmm, I didn't know LA is sort of eurosceptic. How Eurosceptic are they exactly? What their opinion on the retsforbeholdet for example?

If their votes rise proportionately across the country, the Christian Democrats "only" need around 1.6% to get in as they will get a seat in the Western Jutland multi-member constituency and therefore be eligible for top-up seats and end up on 3 seats. It surely will not happen, but their road is a bit shorter than for other small parties.

In the European Committee in parliament, the Liberal Alliance are the most eurosceptic party. They have only voted in favour of the negotiating mandates 57% times; 60% for Enhedslisten and 68% for DPP. 98/100% for all the other parties as they are basically the ones who decide upon the mandates before they are presented. The party basically votes against anything that costs money in someway, or is not cooperation within trade or defense. So they want to keep the opt-out on justice and home affairs and on the euro, but want to abolish the defense opt-out and the special rule which means that foreigners (i.e. Germans) can't buy our summer cottages.

[Diouf]

In the category of people unlikely to get into parliament, Voxmeter has made a poll of the independent Yahya Hassan's chances to get in in the Eastern Jutland multi-member constituency. He needs around 4% to get in.
1 % say they are very likely to vote for him
3% say they are likely to vote for him
82% are unlikely or very unlikely to vote for him
14 % have not decided.

The two top ones combined do sum up to the needed 4%, but very unlikely that all of them will actually vote for him. This seems more like a could you possibly vote for him poll, which always gives balooned figures. In regular polls, where he is included, he polls much lower. In the most recent one, he got 4 votes out of 1000 respondents.

Hassan is a 20-year old poet who became very famous in 2013 when he published his poems, which have sold 120 000 copies so far; an incredibly high figure for a poem collection. The poems were, among other things, about the lack of integration in the ghetto where he grew up and the hypocrisy he saw in many muslims who claimed to be an image of piety, but at the same time hit their children and cheated the state in order to get the highest possible benefits. These criticisms reflected what many right-wing politicians had been saying for years, so he quickly became their favourite muslim and was seen by many of them as a vindication.
However, in the recent months, he has joined the National Party, a centre-left party created by a number of immigrants with the base in a local list in the Copenhagen suburbs. His speeches and political points have mainly focused on the negative consequences of the Danish wars in the middle-east and on support for the Palestinians. The question is, however, whether that is enough to redeem him in immigrant communities, where many still seem to see him as a traitor. Also many of them can't or don't vote.
If a giant shock is to happen on election night, he could be it, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Diouf]

the special rule which means that foreigners (i.e. Germans) can't buy our summer cottages.

Don't be silly, us Norwegians will buy some too

What will LLR's future be if the center-right fail to win this election?

Don't you guys have enough of a coast line already?

If the blue bloc loses, LLR will certainly retire. Then he will have lost twice to Helle Thorning-Schmidt in addition to leading the party to a terrible defeat at the European elections. Also a significant part of the party wanted and expected him to leave a year ago, so there's no chance he is going to stay.
In terms of leaders leaving on election night, the Conservative Søren Pape Poulsen must be the favourite as it is very doubtful whether he will be elected himself. The losing bloc leader, HTS or LLR, will most likely retire as well. HTS may stay on for a while if the party result is good, but difficult to see her in charge of the party at the next general election in case the red bloc loses this time.

It will be interesting to see the personal votes of the two PM candidates. In 2011, LLR clearly won with 56 285 votes, while HTS finished 4th with 33 564 votes. More than 16 000 less than in 2007 for HTS. However, this time HTS' popularity is on the rise while LLR's has been clearly waning. Enhedslisten's "leader" Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen and the DPP's leader Kristian Thulelsen Dahl are probably the favourites to finish 1st this time. Schmidt-Nielsen was 2nd in 2011 with 47 002, whike Thulesen Dahl was 7th with 27 393. Since then the DPP looks poised for a big increase in their vote share and Thulelsen Dahl has become party leader, so him doubling his personal vote share would not be a great surprise.

[Diouf]

Silly question, but what is happening with Thorning Schmidt and her husband? Are they now living and working in parliaments in two different countries? That must be pretty aggravating for both parties...

It's not silly, but it doesn't really fill much in a Danish context. HTS marriage are the least problem both her oiwn and Venstre have with her, and her own are happier to see her husband as a MP in UK than as a good little capitalist in Switzerland. Venstre have stayed far out of mentioning her husband, in hope people don't remember who leaked her tax papers. Only two unpleasant former members (Krarup and Langballe; the black priests*) of DPP brings it up, and the existing parties in parliaments don't mention it.

*black are not for the colour of their skin, but for the colour of their souls , or rather because they're hateful reactionary nationalist and Christian fundamentalists.

Something which a 25 mio kr(£3.35 mio) investigative commission couldn't find out of course

I wouldn't say all Venstre persons stay completely away from the topic, but they like to emphasize the point about the interpretation of the tax law being changed during Stephen Kinnock's case so that he had not commited anything illegal rather than the point about who leaked them.

[Diouf]

A slight elaboration on the electoral system:

175 seats are at play in Denmark, 2 in Greenland and 2 in the Faroe Islands.

Of the 175 Danish seats, 135 are constituency seats which are distributed among the ten multimember constituencies in our three electoral regions, while the remaining 40 seats are compensatory seats in order to achieve full proportionality. Most of the multimember constituencies have between 10 and 20 seats, but the remote island  of Bornholm has its own constituency with two MPs. Each constituency distributes it seats via the regular D'Hondt method.

Then the 40 compensatory are to be distributed between the eligible parties. There are three ways that parties can be eligible for compensatory seats: The first way is to get a constituency seat. The second way is to achieve at least 2% of the votes nationwide. The third way is obtaining in two of the three electoral regions a number of votes corresponding – at least – to the regional votes/seat ratio. The first way often means that the threshold in reality is even lower than the 2%; as mentioned above the Christian Democrats would probably only need to be at 1.6-1.7% nationwide to win a constituency seat in Wester Jutland. Similarly, had the Alternative been hovering around the same percentages, they would probably have gotten in through a constituency seat in Copenhagen or Eastern Jutland.

Once it is determined which parties are eligible for seats, the votes for ineligible parties and independents are removed. Then it is calculated how many of the 175 seats each party deserve via the largest remainder method. The parties then receive enough compensatory seats to reach their deserved number. The number of compensatory seats has always been sufficient for full compensation, even though that will theoretically not always be the case.

Greenland and the Faroe Islands each work like a seperate constituency which distributes 2 seats according to the regular d'Hondt Method. If Siumut implode in Greenland due to Aleqa Hammond's misuse of the Treasury, then perhaps IA could take both of the Greenlandic seats. If one thing should be changed in the electoral system, then it arguably is that these seats should be changed into the single transferable vote.

[Diouf]

Interesting poll by Gallup for Berlingske of the Western Jutland constituency:
(compared to 2011)

Social Democrats 23.7% (+0.7%) 4 constituency seats (=)
Social Liberals 4.9% (-2.4%) 0 seats (-1)
Conservatives 5.3% (+1.5%) 1 seat (+1)
SPP 4.2% (-3.9%) 0 seats (-1)
Liberal Alliance 7.0% (+2.1%) 1 seat (+1)
Christian Democrats 4.6% (+1.7%) 0 seats (=)
DPP 18.7% (+6.5%) 3 (+1)
Liberals 25.4% (-8.9%) 4 (-1)
Red-Green Alliance 4.9% (+1.4%) 0 seats (=)
The Alternative 1.3% (+1.3%) 0 seats (=)

First of all, it should be noted that the seat distribution is only the constituency seats. The compensatory seats will probably add 3 or 4 seats to the constituency; most likely to the four parties that looks likely to cross the electoral threshold nationwide.
However, the interesting parts about this polls is the result of the Conservatives and the Christian Democrats. While the Conservative polls are terrible on the national basis, it looks like the party leader and former Viborg mayor Søren Pape Poulsen has actually managed to make the Conservatives increase their share in Western Jutland by so much that he will get a constituency seat. This is only one regional poll, and his seat is the most marginal seat distributed, but it will be a great achievement if he pulls it off. Even if he does not get a constituency seat, a significant increase in Western Jutland and decreases everywhere else could mean that a compensatory seat is very possible.
The Christian Democrats also go significantly ahead compared to 2011. Their chance is to get a constituency seat in Western Jutland, and they are actually not far away from that. They probably need a further increase of around 0.7-0.8 % in Western Jutland to get in. It's probably not gonna happen, but they are closer than I thought. The coverage of this poll could perhaps be decisive; either to get right wing voters to help them above the threshold or people leaving because it seems like a wasted vote.
Also, if the national polls are not enough to show the degree of the Liberal disaster, then a 8.9% decrease in their Western Jutland heartland should hammer home the point. The Alternative's low score unsurprisingly suggests that they will get some amazing results in Copenhagen, Aarhus and other cities since their national average is between 4 and 5 %.

[Diouf]

The polls open tomorrow at 9 and close at 8. As they close, the two main channels DR1 and TV2 will both publish an exit poll. I presume that both of them will have live streams on the internet which people outside Denmark can follow as well.

Prediction:
Social Democrats 24.5% 44 seats
Social Liberals 6.0% 11
Conservatives 3.4% 6
SPP 5.6% 10
Liberal Alliance 8.0% 14
Christian Democrats 0.9% 0
DPP 16.5% 29
Liberals 21.1% 37
Red-Green Alliance 8.5% 15
The Alternative 4.8% 9

Faroe Islands: Seats for the Union Party and the Social Democratic Party
Greenland: Betting on an upset: Two seats for IA

So results: 92-87 for the Red Bloc. IA have said that will not commit to supporting anything, but can't see them going anywhere but Red Bloc, especially if they win in Denmark.

Party leaders to resign on election night: Conservative leader Søren Pape Poulsen who fails to get a seat, and Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

Top 15 personal votes:
Kristian Thulelsen Dahl, DPP leader
Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen, Red-Green "leader"
Helle Thorning-Schmidt, Social Democrat leader and PM
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Liberal Leader
Nicolai Wammen, Social Democrat Minister of Defence
Pia Kjærsgaard, DPP former Party leader and now spokesperson on values
Mette Frederiksen, Social Democrat Minister of Justice
Carl Holst, Liberal leader of Region Southern Denmark
Bjarne Laustsen, Social Democrat rebel and spokesperson for fisheries
Anders Samuelsen, Liberal Alliance leader
Uffe Elbæk, the Alternative leader
Dan Jørgensen, Social Democrat Minister of Agriculture
Morten Østergaard, Social Liberal Leader
Inger Støjberg, Liberal Political Spokesperson
Pernille Skipper, Red-Green de facto "deputy leader" and spokesperson for Justice

Honorable mentions:
Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, third generation Liberal MP and spokesperson for European Affairs
Magnus Heunicke, Social Democrat Minister of Transportation
Søren Pape Poulsen, Conservative leader

Have probably forgotten someone

[Diouf]

Any links on results when they come in ?

The official result site is http://www.kmdvalg.dk/main
However, they will only publish all the local and regional results as they come in. Usually, they don't make national aggregations or predictions.
To get that you will probably have to go to one of the TV channels (dr.dk and tv2.dk) or the newspapers (jp.dk and politiken.dk and b.dk).

DRs election coverage is here with a TV stream:
http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/live/live.htm

[Diouf]

Pictures of the campaign:

The classic "PM with baby"


The Social Liberal, Conservative and DPP leader all admiring the Red-Green Leader just before one of the TV debates


The Alternative leader Uffe Elbæk and his party letter in rainy conditions in Skagen, the northernmost part of Denmark



SPP leader Pia Olsen Dyhr targeting the children (and the hipsters) with these versions of her election poster


Christian Democrat leader Stig Grenov arguing his case at a gay bar in Copenhagen


Liberal Alliance leader Anders Samuelsen controlling his party's boat at the Folkemøde (People's Meeting) at Bornholm


Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen visiting Vollsmose


The two PM candidates meeting before one of the TV duels

[Diouf]

Is it not possible for Blues to win in terms of seats and votes in Denmark proper but for Reds to come out ahead in total seats since Reds will most likely win 3-1 in Faroe Islands and Greenland? If a Red government is formed this way how would  Denmark proper react ?

Yeah, fully possible. A lot of polls have showed that 88-87 victory for Blue Bloc in Denmark proper which would lead to the outcome you suggest. It is hard to gauge before it happens, but I don't imagine any significant backlash. We already had the 1998 election where the main story is that it was a bus full of Faroese people who decided the election as the expected 3-1 Blue win turned into a 2-2 and another term for the Social Democrat PM.

Søren Espersen from DPP says:"Faroese and Greenlandic seats are A-seats just like any others. That is how the constitution is, and I won't be mad about that just because I happen to be blue." If you were expecting any party to come out with any criticism of it, it would probably have been the DPP, so when they say like that, little will happen. In fact, those who seem to be the most critical of the North Atlantic influence are the North Atlantic candidates themselves. Especially the separatist candidates have said that they don't believe that the Faroese should decide who becomes PM in Denmark, because of course they don't believe that Denmark should have any say in how the Faroe Islands are ruled.

[Diouf]

Turnout at midday 27.3%. It was 27.8% in 2011. Final turnout in 2011 was 87.74%, so it looks like we're on road to a similar or slightly lower turnout this time.