EP elections 2014 - Predictions Thread

[Diouf]

Denmark prediction

DF 26.6 % 3 seats
Liberals 22.5 % 3
Social Democrats 20.7 % 3
People's Movement against the EU 8.1 % 1
SF 7.1% 1
Conservatives 6.4 % 1
Social Liberals 6.2 % 1
Liberal Alliance 2.4 % 0

The first 11 seats are quite easy to distribute; 4 seats for the Soc Dem-SF-Soc Lib pact, 3 seats for the Liberal-Conservative pact, 3 seats for DF, and 1 seat for the People's Movement against the EU. The big question is which of the three big actors that will miss out one of the last two seats. The Lib-Con pact is arguably a slight favourite to gain one of those seats which will in all likelihood mean that the Conservatives regain their seat in the EP. With the percentages predicted above, the centre-left pact just nicks the last seat ahead of DF, which will mean that the Social Liberals will enter the EP. However, DF could just as well get their fourth seat as the front runner Morten Messerschmidt looks set to break the record for most personal votes ever. The current record is 407 966 and set by former PM Poul Nyrup Rasmussen in the 2004 EP elections.

Unified patent court referendum
61.8 % yes
38.2 % no

I'm fairly confident that it will be a yes, but the polls have shown a narrowing of the gap which I think will continue until election day.

[Diouf]

Denmark prediction

DF 26.6 % 3 seats
Liberals 22.5 % 3
Social Democrats 20.7 % 3
People's Movement against the EU 8.1 % 1
SF 7.1% 1
Conservatives 6.4 % 1
Social Liberals 6.2 % 1
Liberal Alliance 2.4 % 0

Unified patent court referendum
61.8 % yes
38.2 % no

DF 26.6% 4 seats
Social Democrats 19.1% 3
Liberals 16.7% 2
SF 11% 1
Conservatives 9.1% 1
People's Movement against the EU 8.1% 1
Social Liberals 6.5% 1
Liberal Alliance 2.9% 0

Unified patent court
60.45% yes
36.19% no

A quite okay prediction. The DF and People's movement predictions were spot on and the Social Liberals and the Liberal Alliance were not far away either. I underestimated the significance of the more popular and well-known candidates from SF and the Conservatives, who took a lot of voters from the Social Democrats and the Liberals respectively. In general, I overestimated the centre-right pact as I thought the centre-left pact looked more likely to lose a seat to DF, while in the end it was the Liberals who lost that seat. A lot probably depended on the scandal regarding the Liberal leader, which might have kept Liberal voters at home or turned more towards the Liberal Alliance or even the centre-left parties. In the end, the Liberals would have only needed a few thousand votes to retain their third seat.
The unified patent court referendum was almost like predicted; I didn't include blanks in the prediction.