Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Diouf]

Politico writes about the possible scenarios. Apparently di Maio already presented his possible ministers before the election.

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https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-government-5-scenarios-after-messy-election/

[Diouf]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/berlusconi-says-league-plotting-government-with-five-star

"Berlusconi Says League Plotting Government With Five Star"

It seems FI and Lega alliance is on the brink.

[Diouf]

Di Maio says he wants to launch a "government contract" either with the League or the PD, but rejects cooperation with Berlusconi's FI. PD continues to rule out any part in a government cooperation, and Salvini says that FI will be a part of any deal and that Salvini will have to be PM, not Di Maio. Both Salvini and Di Maio seem very confident, and very unwilling to give up the PM position at the moment. The question is whether one of the two will ultimately accept to play second string, or they will prefer to make a new electoral system with a majority for the winning bloc/party and have a new election (before the Constitutional Court rules it out). If Berlusconi and Salvini makes a clear schism, I guess Salvini could easier budge.

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2018/04/04/presidential-consultations-on-govt-start-2_9e357169-6d8f-4a9b-8d03-895aa899b375.html

[Diouf]

Di Maio met President Mattarella and repeated that the only two possible coalition partners for him were PD and Lega. He prefers a "German-style government contract" with one of the two. He said M5S wants a government of change, but stated that an M5S-led government Italy would stay in NATO and the EU, including the monetary union.

Salvini insists on a united centre-right coalition, and the three party leaders will go to President Sergio Mattarelal together for the second round of government-formation consultations next week.

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2018/04/05/german-style-govt-contract-2_b6a5bf3c-d913-4cc6-8e56-8fcee5cd9067.html

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2018/04/06/centre-right-to-go-to-pres-together-2_6408f1cc-1521-47cf-b085-7691fc7a6061.html

[Diouf]

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2018/04/23/fico-gets-mandate-for-m5s-pd-deal-5_21beac37-4f7d-4556-aaf8-107413d11e6d.html

[Diouf]

Di Maio a few moments ago: "Talks with League are over; still deep differences with Democrats. Any discussion with Lega ends here. Salvini has condemned himself to irrelevance. Government with the CentreRight is no longer viable. I ask the PD to come to the table, not immediately to sign the contract but to check if there are the conditions to put it on its feet. If talks with PD fail, only alternative is a new election."

[Diouf]

Di Maio a few moments ago: "Talks with League are over; still deep differences with Democrats. Any discussion with Lega ends here. Salvini has condemned himself to irrelevance. Government with the CentreRight is no longer viable. I ask the PD to come to the table, not immediately to sign the contract but to check if there are the conditions to put it on its feet. If talks with PD fail, only alternative is a new election."

But if PD becomes a junior partner to M5S then I can see PD level of popular support falling over time as PD support will move to M5S or Center-Right bloc.  Of course if there is another election right away it would be a Center-Right bloc vs M5S choice election and PD would do worse but then they will live to fight another day in opposition.

Yes, PD will have problems in many different scenarios. However, it would make sense to me, if there's a part of the PD that sees this as an option to actually make some left-wing reforms after being tied to the centre-right in previous governments. I know there's a deeply personal dislike between many persons in the two parties which can easily cause negotiations to fall, but if the alternative is the centre-right, flat tax etc, it might be possible to convince enough people in the PD.

[Diouf]

Extremely disappointing that M5S-Lega will not happen; still unclear to me why this is the case and who is to blame. Any ideas?

Both of them really wants to be PM, and both of them are not very eager to make compromises. Di Maio has another door open in the potential deal with PD, which is obviously not possible for a Lega-led centre-right. Still quite possible with a new electoral law that gives an absolute majority to the winning bloc, which I think both of them would really like (at least at the moment where they look like being the two competitors). If there is to be a coalition, it is pretty obvious that Salvini needs to budge and accept to play the second fiddle.

And that is ofc before going into all the structural problems in terms of policy disagreements, many M5S voters regard themselves as quite leftist etc.

[Diouf]

5 Stars already collapsing...

Increased incentive for them to do a deal and not take a new election?

[Diouf]

It seems that there is movement in the centre-right bloc. As I understand Salvini is ready to give up being PM, while Berlusconi is open to not vote against a M5S-Lega government. Further negotiations should be ongoing; Salvini apparently doing them from his seat at the Coppa Italia final

[Diouf]

DavidB is right that "Basic Income" is quite a spin to put on a programme with welfare benefits and conditions. The whole definition of basic income is income without conditions. From what I can read, this will primarily favour the young, unemployed since current welfare benefits are primarily based on previous employment. So the young, unemployed does not currently have much of a safety net.

Is there any measures aimed at actually getting funds in to the state coffers or are we going for dynamic effects, more growth etc.? I mean, a significant reduction of non-western immigration and deportation of illegals will certainly be a benefit economically, but that would mostly show in the long run. In the short run, it will probably require investments to carry out these policies after the negligence of the PD-led government.

[Diouf]

Conte resigned from mission to create the new govt.

Apparently Mattarella vetoed Savona as Finance Minister. Lega's choice as minister with strong Eurosceptic views.

After Ireland's reversal of a referendum, time for another referendum reversal here? Vittorio Emanuele IV perhaps?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_institutional_referendum,_1946

[Diouf]

Now, it looks as if Conte gives up on forming a government:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44275010

I don't know that much about Italian politics, but this reaction to Mattarella's veto seems weird - one must ask oneself what really is the background of this.

Mattarella argues in two ways, basically. One is the financial risks are too big, with the increasing market spread etc. The second is that "being in the Euro is fundamental for the future of our country and our young people. If we want to discuss it, we have to do it openly, as it hasn't been a salient topic of the latest elections". So he sees Savona as a way for M5S and Lega to favour an euro exit without really saying it clearly. Both parties seemed to have reeled back their Euro opposition in the election campaign, and it was not a part of the coalition agreement, but Mattarella probably interpreted Savona as a sign they would leave the euro anyway. So he wants the parties to openly commit to leaving the euro (it that is indeed the plan).

With regards future, he said "No minority government. Preference is a neutral caretaker government with elections in Dec. If parties find another solution, this govt resigns and hands over to the new political govt. If no caretaker, elections in Autumn.

[Diouf]

Di Maio statements."Today they blocked our government for change, and not because we insisted on Savona, but because all those like Savona were not okay, all those [...] who were critical of the Euro and of Europe were not okay as ministers of the Republic. If this is the issue, we've got a big problem in Italy, which is called democracy. This is not a free democracy in these conditions. I profoundly admired Mattarella but this choice is incomprehensible. In the coalition agreement there wasn't the exit from the €. In that contract there was the revision of treaties and some European rules. [...] We were ready to abolish the pension reform, precarious contracts, to address immigration and economic problems, they didn't allow us. What was the problem? That rating agencies and investors were worried? Then let's say it: voting is useless, the governments in Italy are decided by rating agencies and financial lobbies and banks. Always the same decide the govt, even when the people vote for forces of change. It's an unprecedented level of institutional conflict. What's the point of new elections? We win again, propose Savona and get vetoed again [...] I'm very angry, it took over 80 days to secure a good govt for this country, but they're doing everything not to let us into govt". He then concluded with a list of ministers proposed. Di Maio was to be deputy PM and Economic development and social policies minister while Salvini was to be Deputy PM and Interior Minister".

Salvini statement: "We have a democracy. The names of the ministers are decided by the Italian people, not by the Germans, the French or the Portuguese. Without Savona [in the cabinet], we're headed for a new vote.".

Meloni calls for impeaching the president, while Berlusconi calls such talk "irresponsible".

[Diouf]

So let's say there are new elections and 5 Star and Legs increase their majority. How does that change anything if the President won't accept their cabinet? It sounds like unless Italians suddenly elect an establishment government, there will be another impasse.

According to Mattarella's statements, then he will probably accept an M5S-Lega government with an Eurosceptic Finance Minister if they campaign on Euro withdrawal.

But this is a very peculiar decision. It seems like it will boost the two parties, but things are probably hard to predict in this environment. And will both parties then campaign on leaving the euro? And how will that affect support?