EP elections 2014

[Diouf]

The Movimento 5 Stelle will try to create a new group in the European Parliament according to Luigi Di Maio, who is one of the highest ranked members of the party and Deputy President of the Chamber of Deputies. He says that it will be crucial to create this new group within the first two weeks of the new EP, because otherwise the other parties will just try to be admitted into one of the current groups. The task does look difficult for the Movement, especially to reach members from six other countries.

http://www.ansa.it/europa/notizie/rubriche/speciali_elezioni2014/2014/03/30/a-bruxelles-m5s-cerchera-di-costituire-nuovo-gruppo_ce72a340-f5ab-4902-931c-6cdf8c404cad.html

Their program for the European Elections:


Referendum on the euro
Abolish the fiscal compact
Create Eurobonds
Make a Mediterranean alliance which will fight for a common policy
Investments in innovation and new productive activies should be exempted when calculating whether a country is within the 3% budget deficit rule.
Not completely sure, but as far as I understand they want a restructuring and renationalisation of the agricultural support.
The last point says something like the abolition of the balanced budget, which I guess means the general ideas of a deficit limits, the European Semester etc.

[Diouf]

I'd say number 6 is rather on the lines of "financing agricultural and breeding activities that are destined to be consumed by internal consumers".

I feel like that needs some translating still. What does that mean policy-wise?

[Diouf]

If it's allowed for me as a new member, I would have some questions to the members of the forum on specific national issues :

1. Denmark

What tendency has the Liberal Alliance regarding their ballot status? Will it compete alone, or in partnerchip with the national-conservative Danish People's Party or the Conservatives?

This has not been decided yet, but I still believe that alone is the most likely answer. The DF front runner swells in his me vs every one else role, and just recently argued how un-democratic electoral alliances were and that they should be forbidden, so that rules them out. I don't think they are likely to join the Liberal-Conservative electoral alliance again, as they have become markedly more Eurosceptic. The Liberals and the Conservatives also sound more Eurosceptic, especially due to the current debate in Denmark, but not at all to the same degree. If the Liberal Alliance did join, the electoral alliance might reach five seats instead of the four, that they have been predicted to get in almost every poll, but the Conservatives are probably be afraid that the Liberal Alliance ends up bigger than them. That would make it almost impossible for the Conservatives to get a seat out of the alliance, I reckon.  

2. Finland

What trend do have the Christiandemocrats with regard to their choice of participation? Will they compete alone, or with the "True Finns" as the last time?

From what I've read there will be no alliance this time. Either way, it will be extremely difficult for the Christian Democrats to get elected, so an electoral alliance will in all likelyhood just give the Finns Party three seats instead of two.

[Diouf]

Northern League might stick with Farage since they're not excessively right-wing.

Salvini has announced that they will join the Le Pen-Wilders Alliance.

http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2014/03/29/news/salvini_alle_europee_alleanza_con_le_pen_e_partiti_no-euro-82228442/?ref=HREC1-33

[Diouf]

True Finns will not join  FN or PVV. There has been speculation about ECR.

It's the same with DF. They also wanted to join ECR in 2009, but were rejected. They are used to being somewhat pragmatic in Denmark, and taking part in quite a lot of negotiations. So I guess their MEPs would like to be in a group with some possibility for influence as well.

[Diouf]

Today, the Liberal Alliance, as expected, announced that they will not take part in an electoral alliance. That means that they need 7-8 % of the votes to get at seat which looks very difficult. Party leader Anders Samuelsen gives this explanation for the choice: "We don't like the banking union like the Liberals and the Conservatives and we don't like protectionism and closed borders like DF. We have our own position".

If they do get seat, Samuelsen says that they will not be a part of the ALDE group where Samuelsen himself sat as a Social Liberal MEP from 2004 to 2007. He believes that the group is for supereuropeans. He hopes for a new liberal, but more eurosceptic group to emerge after the election. I can't really see that happening, so ECR still looks the most likely group if they get a seat

[Diouf]

As for Schulz/Juncker as EC President, that's probably not the choice that will face the EP after Merkel decides whom she really wants.

But surely the SPD must have something to say as well. If Schulz can collect just something resembling a majority, the SPD will be quite the laughing stock if they just allowed Merkel and/or some of the other big countries to straight out reject him.

[Diouf]

NCD and UDC ally for the European elections, and apparently they are in negotiations with Mario Mauro's new Popolari per l'Italia as well. Popolari per l'Italia is a split off from Mario Montis Scelta Civica, and sits in a common group with the UDC in the parliament. They have a deputy minister and three undersecretaries in the Renzi Cabinet.
According to the newest poll from Ipsos for Corriere delle Sera, they are able to cross the threshold and get 5 seats. However, in this poll neither the Tsipras alliance nor the ALDE alliance (Scelta Civica - Europa) are above the threshold. But neither are that far from doing it.



http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2014/04/03/news/elezioni_europee_ncd_di_alfano_si_allea_con_udc_d_alia_insieme_verso_ppe_italiano-82618482/

[Diouf]

So NCD, and UCD etc will be in an alliances, FI will go with La Destra. What are the chances off FDI and the liberal alliance getting 4% each?! FDI seems to be polling  almost 4% and the liberals better than in national polls.

Well, the question is whether they will be able to carve out their niche. The liberal alliance will try to be a quite distinctly pro-european centrist force which could make them relatively unique, I reckon. They will probably mainly fight with PD and NCD/UDC for votes. They can at least partly brand themselves as the new, fresh liberals, who will create real change as opposed to EPP and S&D.
FDI-AN will more or less have the role of Lega Nord outside of Northern Italy. Forza Italia will be more Eurosceptic than normally, so the FDI will probably be even more shrill to secure the hard-core Eurosceptic and anti-immigrant vote.

There are arguably more voters for FDI to hunt, but their competition is probably harder as well. A lot will depend on the candidates as well. If the liberal alliance manages to convince Emma Bonino or another reputable candidate, then that should boost their chances of crossing the threshold. The liberal alliance will present their candidates in Rome next saturday

[Diouf]

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Svp - 0,00%

The threshold isn't important for them, however. Although, their support has faded somewhat, it seems like they will still be able to reach the neccessary 50.000 votes to retain their seat.

[Diouf]

AB Analyse for Altinget.dk poll for Denmark

DF 26.7 % 4
Social Democrats 22.8 % 3
Liberals 21.2 % 3 seats
People's movement against the EU 9.1 % 1
Social Liberals 8.9 % 1
SF 6.2 % 1
Conservatives 4.1 % 0
Liberal Alliance 1.0 % 0

In this poll, DF pulls ahead of the Liberal-Conservative alliance and gains a fourth seat. It does look quite weird that the Liberal Alliance should only get 1 %, and most of their eurosceptic right-wing support is probably at DF in this poll.

[Diouf]

Poland TNS Polska EP poll



For the first time in a long time, Donald Tusk's Civic Platform is the biggest party in the polls.

Seat calculation:
Civic Platform (EPP) 18
Law and Justice (ECR) 18
Democratic Left Alliance (S&D) 6
Europa Plus Alliance - Your Movement (ALDE and S&D) 3
Polish People's Party (EPP) 3
Congress of the New Right (?)* 3
United Poland (EFD) 0
Poland Together (ECR) 0

*Described as ultra-liberalist on economy, conservative on values, and quite eurosceptic. So EFD most likely?

http://euobserver.com/eu-elections/123773

[Diouf]

Voxmeter EP poll. Denmark

Liberals 28.1 % 4 seats
Social Democrats 27.1 % 4
DF 20.4 % 3
SF 7.6 % 1
Social Liberals 6.6 % 1
People's movement against the EU 3.7 % 0
Conservatives 3.4 % 0
Liberal Alliance 3.2 % 0

Voxmeter is normally a reliable poller, but this polls looks really weird. Extremely high numbers for the Liberals and the Social Democrats, which is 7-8 % increases compared to the EP elections in 2009; all other polls have shown them around 19-24 %. Especially for the Social Democrats it seems weird considering how poor their national polls are. Also quite low figures for the two main Eurosceptic parties DF and the People's Movement, which are both around 5 % higher in other polls. Also poorer results than normally for the Social Liberals and the Conservatives.

45 % of those asked, answered don't know.

[Diouf]

There is also the electio site, which allows you to vote on 20 of the most important votes from the EP 2009-2014. Afterwards you can see which MEP, candidate, party or group you agree with the most.

http://www.electio2014.eu/

My best match is Anna Ibrisagic (81 %) from the Swedish Moderates, and my best Danish match is the Conservative Bendt Bendtsen (80 %). My worst match is Marie-Christine Vergiat from the French Front de Gauche (13 %), and my worst Danish match is Søren Søndergaard from the People's Movement against the EU (23 %).

Groupwise the match is:
ALDE 70 %
EPP 61 %
ECR 59 %
S&D 50 %
EFD 43 %
Greens/EFA 41 %
GUE-NGL 30 %

[Diouf]

Gerald Keuzer (SPÖ)

Who is this ?

Never heard of this guy.

You should know that Kreuzer better than me. It's just a silly typing error, very common on the other hand.

Maybe some candidate way back on the SPÖ list ...

A Gewerkschaftssekretär apparently and yes quite a bit down on their list.

http://www.gdgfsg.at/eu_wahl2014/Kandidatenliste.pdf

[Diouf]

Epinion poll for Denmark

Liberals 24.5 % 4 seats
DF 24.0 % 3
Social Democrats 22.8 % 4
People's movement against the EU 7.3 % 1
Social Liberals 6.9 % 1
SF 5.7 % 0
Conservatives 5.5 % 0
Liberal Alliance 3.3 % 0

[Diouf]

N-VA used to be a sub-group of CD&V (Flemish Christian Democrats, light nationalists) and have always had a conservative-liberal backbone to their nationalism (There used to be a left-wing nationalist party called Spirit but they're in Groen now). When they split from CD&V, the latter got very cross and managed to get N-VA kicked out of the EPP.

Thing is N-VA had only one MEP at the time anyway and she was actually to the left of the party and on good terms with the Belgian Greens and more importantly wasn't a hardcore Flemish nationalist (she's from Limburg). I talked to an ecolo MEP and he said it was a potential PR disaster (a Walloon party sitting in the same group as a Flemish nationalist party) but they didn't want her in the non-inscrits because she was europhile, limburgish and did a lot of good work.

Anyway she is no longer MEP as she was elected as mayor of Bilzen and now N-VA are set to get more seats with a way more right-wing list than the last time out (since De Wever is riding on the tide of right-wing populism). They look set to join the ECR although that could get embarrassing for Cameron with the Scotland debate. Personally, I think they should just rejoin the EPP because they are not eurosceptic (yet).

I think Ecolo and the way that other Walloon parties have kept questioning them as to why they sit with Flemish nationalists both in EP and in federal government opposition is the realpolitik nature of what just happened. This is what happens in campaigning time I guess...

The shift that happened when N-VA changed their MEP is also rather obvious when looking at their voting record on votewatch.eu. Frieda Brepoels, the lady from Limburg, voted with the Green/EFA group 77.45% of the times, while her replacement Mark Demesmaeker only voted with the group 62.75% of the times.

[Diouf]

Agorà/Ixé poll for Italy



M5S has made significant process in recent weeks, and their polling average is now 25 % according to Electionista. Both the Tsipras list and FdI-AN are hovering around the treshold. The Verhofstadt list is quite far away from the 4 %, but this poll includes an option that was just called Scelta Civica which received 1.4 %. However, the Scelta Civica is a part of the Verhofstadt list and not running on its own AFAIK, so they are probably not that far away. I believe other polls have shown them around 3-3.5 % as well.

43 % answered don't know or will not vote.
 

[Diouf]

Denmark poll by Megafon

DF 25.6 % 4 seats
Liberals 22.6 % 4
Social Democrats 20.9 % 3
People's Movement against the EU 12.7 % 1
Social Liberals 5.8 % 1
SF 5.0 % 0
Conservatives 3.8 % 0
Liberal Alliance 3.5 % 0

This is the poll with the biggest percentage for the eurosceptic parties so far. This is some of the highest results for both DF and the People's Movement against the EU, but with the current anti-EU sentiment, it is probably not far off. I still think it's surprisingly low results for both SF and the Conservatives.

[Diouf]

Top 5 in Germany
CDU 65.8 %
Tierschutspartei 61.8 %
FDP 60.5 %
CSU 60.5 %
Freie Wähler 60.5 %

Expect for the animal party, pretty much as expected. However, generally I had quite low agreements with all parties when 65.8 % is the highest score.

Bottom 5 in Germany
PRO NRW 34.2 %
PSG 42.1 %
NPD 43.4 %
CM 46.1 %
DKP 46.1 %

Small, extremist right, left or Christian parties. Of the normal parties, die Linke were my worst match.

[Diouf]

Not a fan of the three presenters, and the tight structure. I think they should focus more on a few concrete areas and proposals to get some real debate instead of hurrying through a lot of short subjects and questions from the audience and the internet.

[Diouf]

I think Verhofstadt did quite well. Generally the three to the left acted more like a normal debate, while Juncker often looked a bit absent and didn't really engage with the others, although that did seem to be partially due to his poorer English skills.

The debate had a somewhat better flow in the last part of the debate, but that was unfortunately on the subject of Ukraine where there were not really much difference between them. I hope the debate on 15 May will function better; it looks positive that there is only one host.
In this debate, I believe there was a number of problems. First of all, the presenters talked far too much about time; all the time saying thirty seconds, forty seconds, one minute. That is okay for opening and closing statements, but good hosts can run a debate so the time is divided quite fairly without these constant time references. It made it seem more important to keep the structure than to actually have any real debate.
Furthermore, I have yet to see a debate that gains much from switching to a "Twitter watcher" who tells how many are tweeting, trying to find out what the "consensus" is among the tweeters and to find questions. This generally works better when it is integrated in the program, and not as a seperate point that you have to get by a number of times. It can be integrated by having a social media line in the bottom of the screen with good/funny comments to the debate, and edited by a web editor behind the scenes. This editor can then also provide questions to the presenter if something genious emerges; otherwise it is often better to just keep to the prepared questions.
Finally, the presenters should have focused on fewer and clearer points. It often resulted in candidates starting out by answering other candidates' questions to get some debate, and ended up without enough time to answer the questions they were given. This often made it more like detached questions and answers instead of debate.

[Diouf]

New Danish poll. Epinion for DR.



The conservatives are now within 1 % of a seat. With the Liberals on 24.3 % and four seats in the electoral alliance, the Conservatives will need 6.1 % to take one of the Liberal seats.
The Social Liberals and SF both get a seat with this poll. With the Social Democrats on 22.4 % and five seats in the electoral alliance, they only need 5.6 % to get a seat.
However, DF is not far away from a fourth seat, which would be gained from one of the two electoral alliances and make life very difficult for either SF or the Conservatives.

Also the poll included the referendum on the unified patent court. 42 % will vote in favour, 18 % will vote no, and 40 % don't know. I suspect the final result will be much closer. However, the no-side not only needs a majority for no, it also needs at least 30 % of those entitled to vote to vote no.

[Diouf]

Danish EP-poll in Børsen today

DF largest party... sigh

That looks unavoidable, but by those margins!!!

[Diouf]

Danish EP-poll in Børsen today

DF largest party... sigh

That looks unavoidable, but by those margins!!!

It do look like an outliner - Turnout will probably also be significant. DF voters are more likely to stay home

Have you tried SF's talking posters?

Yeah, normally they would be more likely to stay home, but i don't know whether that's the case now. Have you seen any polls with crosstabs? I actually think DF now could have almost ukippish numbers with a massive lead among the 60+ which are generally more likely to turn up than younger voters.

I've barely seen a SF poster yet, so that's a no. Nice initiative though