EP elections 2014

[Diouf]

Some ehh... interesting views from the leader of the Congress of the New Right which currently looks like crossing the threshold in Poland and getting three seats.

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http://euobserver.com/eu-elections/124011

[Diouf]

One of the first interesting poster campaigns in Denmark today from the Liberals



"Is a border barrier the most effective way to stop foreign criminals?

The Liberals want a strengthened duty control, repatriation of foreign criminals and continued membership of EUROPOL.

Vote for the Liberals on 25 May - because complaints are not enough"

The ad is obviously targeted at DF. A bit surprising that they actually directly counter DF's argument instead of just focusing on how tough they themselves are on crime.
The left wing parties might argue that it sounds a bit hollow as the Liberals accepted DF's demand of border controls in exchange for economic reforms at the end of their latest period in government.

[Diouf]

The Danish Parliament has made this video in an attempt to make more people vote in the European elections. They have apparently been told that sex and violence sell...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltvV7_-6GUw

EDIT:

The video has been withdrawn. http://euobserver.com/tickers/124114

It can still be seen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT4lhERDZ8s

[Diouf]

Italian poll by Epoké Ricerche.



A rare poll that shows Scelta Europea crossing the threshold. It might be an outlier though; a low PD result and a very low Forza Italia result.

[Diouf]

The latest PollWatch2014 aggregation of the polls provides this result:

EPP 212
S&D 209
ALDE 63
GUE-NGL 52
ECR 43
EFD 39
Greens/EFA 38
NI 95

VoteWatch have made an attempt to predict how the new parties will position themselves, and whether new groups will emerge: http://www.votewatch.eu/en/news.html#3944

They end up with this result based on current polls

EPP 213
S&D 209
ALDE 76
EFD 64!
GUE-NGL 54
ECR 46
EAF 39
Greens-EFA 35
NI 15

The main reason for the high score of the EFD is that they assign Grillo to that group. I still very much doubt that it will happen. I think NI is the most likely. If they are to join a group I think it would be more likely with the GUE-NGL or perhaps the Greens. Quite a lot will probably depend on the MEPs they get elected. I also doubt the placement of AfD in EFD; I think ECR remains the most likely.

[Diouf]

Isn't 90 minutes a bit short for 5 candidates ?

I hope they let them speak a bit this time and not cut them off after 20 or 30 seconds ...

I don't think that it's necessarily too short time, but I'm afraid it's gonna be time tyranny again like in the Maastricht debate.
From the rules of the debate:

Each Participating Candidate will have no more than one minute to answer each question.

Each Participating Candidate will then have no more than one minute to comment on the answers and statements of the other Participating Candidates.

There will be a clock indicating the time remaining for statements, answers to questions and responses. This will be visible to the Participating Candidates and moderator, the studio audience and on-screen.

[Diouf]

Weighted average of Danish polls by altinget.dk

DF 27.6 % 4 seats
Liberals 22.5 % 4
Social Democrats 19.8 % 3
People's Movement against the EU 8.3 % 1
SF 7.7 % 1
Social Liberals 6.0 % 0
Conservatives 5.3 % 0
Liberal Alliance 2.8 % 0

DF gets four seats, which means that there are only four seats for the A-B-F pact as well. No seats for neither the Social Liberals nor the Conservatives.



This shows how many voters who are still in doubt about who to vote for, divided after who they voted for in the general election in 2011. This table is based on the online EU-test EU-vox in Denmark. 30.000 have answered, but there are obviously some caveats there.
Unsurprisingly, the biggest number of doubters are among those who voted for Enhedslisten in 2011. Enhedslisten is not running in these elections, and especially some of the voters they have picked up from the Social Democrats and SF might be uneasy about voting for the People's Movement against the EU. A very low number of doubters for DF. Their base is fully behind their Eurosceptic policies so it will be crucial for them to get as many as possible of them to vote. A potential negative thing for DF could be if some of the many doubters from the other parties, of whom a significant number is probably currently leaning DF, will end up voting for their 2011 party

[Diouf]

I think this debate was somewhat better than the Maastricht debate. Even though the debate format was again far from perfect, there was, at least in the first part of the debate, some actual discussion and interaction between the candidates. In that way it probably also helped that Tsipras took part so the dividing lines between the candidates were quite clear. The quality fell during the second part. Mainly due to some weird themes like crucifixes or headscarfs in public spaces or themes on which there are little difference like corruption and lobbyism, Ukraine and whether one of them would become commission president. Again, I would have liked if the debate throughout focused on clear questions where there are differences between the candidates; things like climate goals, working conditions, environmental regulation, TTIP were barely mentioned.

Finally, there seemed to be some technical problems. In the stream on the eurovision site, there was only the original language, and generally there were too many problems with the quality of the stream.

[Diouf]

Swedish poll by Novus for Ekot



The Pirate Party is very close to regaining one of its seats; the threshold is four percent.

Seat distribution
Moderates 4
Liberals 2
Centre Party 0
Christian Democrats 1
Social Democrats 6
Left 2
Greens 3
Sweden Democrats 2
June List 0
Pirate Party 0
Feminist Initiative 0

[Diouf]

Increased speculation that DF and the Finns Party might join the ECR after the elections. Some of the moderate Tory MEPs are warning against an inclusion of these parties, but I think it's fair to say that they are in a minority in the party.

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www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/16/conservative-leader-euro-parliament-courts-anti-immigration-party

[Diouf]

Danish poll by Megafon for TV2 and Politiken

Unified Patent Court Referendum
65.4 % yes
34.6 % no

The no-side will probably increase further, but it looks like it won't be really close.

Liberals 24.2 % 3 seats
DF 21.5 % 3 
Social Democrats 21.1 % 3
People's Movement against the EU 9.4 % 1
Social Liberals 7.5 % 1
SF 6.2 % 1
Conservatives 6.1 % 1
Liberal Alliance 2.6 % 0

A quite low result for DF compared to the average of 27 %. The polls have tended towards all of the three small parties in the electoral alliances, Social Liberals, SF, and Conservatives, getting a seat but it's still by a very narrow margin.

The expected turnout is 56 %. In 2009, it was 59.5 %, but it was higher due to the referendum on the royal succession rules. Between 1979 and 2004, the turnout was between 46.2 % and 52.9 %.

[Diouf]

DF to ECR seems very likely. Today Dan Hannan, Tory MEP, said the following to the Danish newspaper Berlingske: "Morten Messerschmidt, the DF front runner, is a hard-working and impressive politician. A wide range of ECR-politicians see ham as a trustworthy colleague, and in my opinion his views on the EU match ours better than those of any other Danish party." Hannan adds that he would vote yes to DF joining, and that he thinks the chances of it happening are very good as Messerschmidt is a very popular politician in the ECR.

[Diouf]

Last Danish poll by Epinion



Such a result would more or less satisfy everyone, perhaps except the Liberal Alliance, but they had probably not really expected to get a seat. It will be a big win for DF, the Social Democrats and the Liberals both hold on to their 2009 results in a Eurosceptic time, the People's Movement against the EU increases their result a bit and holds on to their seat, the Conservatives and SF retain a seat each despite difficult times for the parties, and the Social Liberals re-enters the EP after a five-year break.