I also don't think we should count out Bob McDonnell's unpopularity with his corruption issues too.
McAuliffe really had a perfect storm to defy the historical pattern.
I was a GOP Convention Delegate in 2013 and any time McDonnell's name was mentioned over the loudspeaker for whatever reason, there were audible boos. A lot of us feel betrayed by McDonnell. He was the first person i ever voted for. I defended him for 3 years. And despite being the head of lawyer ethics and discipline for 4 years as AG, he took a fuqin Rolex. POS. I was sad when SCOTUS unanimously kept him out of jail.