Forward? – A 2012 Election Game (Gameplay Thread)

[Lumine]

Turn Four: It's beginning to look
at lot like Christmas:

December 1st to December 25th, 2011

In the News!

Kim Jong-Il dead at 69!

Relatively unknown son Kim Jong-Un hailed as Supreme Leader of North Korea

American troops leave Iraq

Fulfiling a campaign pledge, President Obama announces the Iraq War "is over"

Economy shows little signs of recovery

Unemployment has a slight decrease, but hovers around 9.5%

Sarah Palin drops out of GOP race!

Citing poor fundraising and numbers, Palin is the next Republican to leave the race

Rod Blagojevich declared guilty!

14 years in prison for disgraced former Governor of Illinois

1.- Turn: This turn lasts across most of December, and it's the final turn to last a whole month. After turn four is over, turn five will cover the week before the Iowa caucuses. And there's two special endorsers! The Des Moines Register will be endorsing one candidate for the GOP and the Democrats each, and the Manchester Union Leader will endorse a candidate from the GOP. Rather than merely ask for them, you are invited to send a pitch as who you should recieve these endorsements.  

GE Polling

RCP Average:
2012 Presidential Election:

Generic Republican: 46%
Generic Democrat: 42%
Wesley Clark: 7%
Undecided: 5%

Primary Polling

RCP: Republican Primary:

Chris Christie: 28%
Bobby Jindal: 17%
Ron Paul: 15%
Walter Jones: 11%
Ernie Fletcher: 9%
Adam Carolla: 8%
Donald Trump: 4%
Fred Upton: 2%
Undecided: 6%

Republicans: Christie, the new Republican Frontrunner

The primary had been turned upside down, again. In most dramatic fashion, the two likely frontrunners since the beginning of the primary dropped out in different circumstances, Mitt Romney bowing out to take care of her wife due to ill health, and Sarah Palin leaving the field after what many described as an uninspiring or absent campaign. With eight remaining Republicans, the field seemed wide open as suddenly over a quarter of primary voters had to find a new candidate, and the Republican establishment panicked over what might happen afterwards. Alas, it is said that nature abhors a vacuum, and the space opened was soon filled by the new Republican frontrunner.

Having suffered his own share of blows in October, Governor Chris Christe came up fighting with all guns blazing in November, avoiding a lot of damage (despite attacks by Ron Paul or Walter Jones) and winning a debate with a memorable performance that allowed him to seize the spot of frontrunner. Appealing to Republicans of different backgrounds with his tough talking style, Christie got a substantial part of former Romney voters on board and shot his way to the top of the polls, opening leads in Iowa and New Hampshire. Behind and as his main challengers were Bobby Jindal - who leads the pack in Florida and South Carolina - and Ron Paul - now leading the chaotic polls in Nevada. Both Jindal and Paul, however, face the significant disavantage in having like-minded rivals for the conservative and the libertarian niche in Ernie Fletcher and Adam Carolla, both of whom are also on the rise.

With Donald Trump and Fred Upton still far back at the bottom of the polls, the remaining would-be challenger was Congressman Walter Jones, who has been picking up steam to overcome the 10% barrier  with his populist style. As December dawns, this month will be decisive for candidates to rise or fall under the weight of attacks, as the electorate remains incredibly volatile following the departures of Romney and Palin. While Chris Christie's lead is comparatively strong, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus stated that: "from here on, anything can happen."

RCP: Democratic Primary:

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Joe Biden: 27%
Russ Feingold: 11%
Phil Bredesen: 4%
Undecided: 9%

Democrats: Clinton on the rise, can Biden or Feingold stop her?

The Democratic primary was defined this month by the sudden departure of President Obama from the race, seen as many as an admission of the ground gained by Senator Clinton and that a bruising primary contest would probably doom the President's chances at the General Election. Obama's departure suddenly redefined the dynamics of the contest as Hillary Clinton's well oiled machine shot her up to the top of the polls. She was on target now, and it remained to be seen whether Governor Bredesen and Senator Feingold could do enough to catch up before other Democrats jumped in to the race at the last moment.

With Feingold mostly inactive - preventing for now a surge from Obama supporters -, Bredesen took on the fight as the sole challenger to debate Clinton that month... and the race took a turn for the bizarre. From the revival of the Vince Foster controversy (to the joy of Limbaugh, Jones and a non-small part of FOX) to dismissing and attacking the record of the Clinton Administration (still heavily popular among most of the party), and then following up with inexplicable claims of sabotage by Breitbart (which the media source was quick to prove as false), the Bredesen campaign exploded in a wave of outrage as most donors and endorsers pulled out and many Democratic voters condemned the actions of the Bredesen campaign, pushing the Governor all the way back to 4%.

As December dawns and with one of Clinton's challengers almost crippled, all eyes are on Vice-President Joe Biden, who is expected to announce a bid for the presidency very soon. Tentative polling works to the  benefit of Senator Clinton by showing Biden on 27%, but with many undecideds and a lot of soft support for both Clinton and Biden pundits agree the race could take a dramatic turn depending on what happens in this last month before Iowa, often recognized as Clinton's weak spot.

[Lumine]

GOP Average Polling:

IOWA:

Chris Christie: 25%
Ron Paul: 22%
Bobby Jindal: 17%
Ernie Fletcher: 10%
Walter Jones: 9%
Adam Carolla: 7%
Donald Trump: 5%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 4%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Chris Christie: 35%
Ron Paul: 19%
Adam Carolla: 10%
Bobby Jindal: 8%
Walter Jones: 8%
Fred Upton: 6%
Donald Trump: 6%
Ernie Fletcher: 3%
Undecided: 5%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Bobby Jindal: 29%
Walter Jones: 19%
Ernie Fletcher: 16%
Chris Christie: 14%
Ron Paul: 7%
Adam Carolla: 6%
Donald Trump: 2%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 7%

FLORIDA:

Bobby Jindal: 27%
Chris Christie: 25%
Adam Carolla: 11%
Ron Paul: 9%
Walter Jones: 9%
Ernie Fletcher: 6%
Donald Trump: 3%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 9%

NEVADA:

Ron Paul: 26%
Chris Christie: 15%
Adam Carolla: 14%
Bobby Jindal: 13%
Walter Jones: 10%
Donald Trump: 6%
Ernie Fletcher: 5%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 10%

[Lumine]

DEM Average Polling:

IOWA:

Hillary Clinton: 39%
Joe Biden: 30%
Russ Feingold: 21%
Phil Bredesen: 1%
Undecided: 9%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Hillary Clinton: 57%
Joe Biden: 25%
Russ Feingold: 12%
Phil Bredesen: 0%
Undecided: 6%

NEVADA:

Hillary Clinton: 53%
Joe Biden: 32%
Russ Feingold: 5%
Phil Bredesen: 3%
Undecided: 7%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Hillary Clinton: 45%
Joe Biden: 33%
Phil Bredesen: 9%
Russ Feingold: 4%
Undecided: 9%

FLORIDA:

Hillary Clinton: 55%
Joe Biden: 29%
Russ Feingold: 6%
Phil Bredesen: 3%
Undecided: 7%

[Lumine]

Endorsements from Turn Three:

Christie: Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bradley.
Fletcher: Nathan Deal, Paul LePage.
Carolla: Dr Drew, Thomas Sorwell.
Paul: FreedomWorks, Bill Weld.
Jones: Pat Buchanan, Bob Smith.
Jindal: Charles Boustany, Jennifer Carroll.
Upton: Olympia Snowe, Dick Lugar.

Clinton: Diane Feinstein, Mark Warner.

Clark: David Boren, William Cohen.

[Lumine]

Debate Winners:

GOP:

The latest debate had the misfortune of having the lowest viewers so far, mostly because several candidates such as Romney, Palin, Trump and Jindal could not make it for personal reasons (or chose not to make an appearance), leaving only six to debate on the stage. Out of them, it was the common agreement that Governor Chris Christie had won the debate with an excellent performance, touching on his "tough-talking" style to appeal directly to the base and support his rise in the polls. Most of his rivals were seen as having put on a strong performance as well, although nowhere nearly as memorable as the one given by Christie. Despite not reaching the top, Jones, Fletcher, Paul and Carolla (in that order) drew benefits from the exposure, whereas Congressman Upton continues to draw negative headlines by promoting policies despised by his party's base.

DEM:

Also a debate with low viewership, only Hillary Clinton and Phil Bredesen came to the debate stage. The early course of the debate itself was not necessarily controversial, with Clinton delivering a strong performance and Bredesen giving an acceptable performance as well. Alas, when the time came for Bredesen to attack Senator Clinton, things unraveled quickly for him. A disastrous attempt at mimicking Lloyd Bentsen's line against Dan Quayle was met with mocking laughter from the audience, and attacks on the Clinton Presidency (popular among Democrats) drew more criticism. Clinton was seen to have responded strongly, cementing the downward spiral of the Bredesen campaign and helping her shot to the top after President Obama left the race. As a result, it was almost unanimous among the pundits that Senator Hillary Clinton had scored a large victory.

[Lumine]

4th Democratic Presidential Debate:

Note: All Democratic candidates are invited to attend. You have a right to reply to other candidates, but don't make it a ten post argument. Finally, you can end your performance with a closing statement. Good luck!

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[Lumine]

4th Republican Presidential Debate:

Note: All Republican candidates are invited to attend, and you can of course reply to other candidates briefly. You can end your performance with a closing statement. Good luck!

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[Lumine]

Turn Five: Stop, Caucus Time:

December 26th, 2011 to January 3rd, 2012

In the News!

Iowa Caucuses approach

Clinton, Christie face key challenge in the first contest

Trump, Jindal drop out of GOP race

Two key candidates leaving the contest, Jones and Fletcher surging as alternatives?

1.- Turn: This is our fist "weekly" turn, covering the final days before the Iowa Caucuses. After months of laying the ground for your respective campaigns, actual voting will begin soon and momentum swings will certainly depend on your performances. As to the turn itself you're free on how you want to fight the caucus or whether to seriously contest it or not. The average of polls does have a margin or error than can go from -2 to +2% and there's still a decent number of undecideds, so a well executed strategy can pay off handsomely. There won't be a debate this turn, but there will be one before New Hampshire, before South Carolina and before Florida.

GE Polling

RCP Average:
2012 Presidential Election:

Generic Republican: 45%
Generic Democrat: 43%
Wesley Clark: 7%
Undecided: 5%

Primary Polling

RCP: Republican Primary:

Chris Christie: 31%
Walter Jones: 18%
Ernie Fletcher: 17%
Ron Paul: 17%
Adam Carolla: 12%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 4%

Republicans: New challengers arise?

The continued changes in the make-up of the GOP field were only making the momentum swings wilder and wilder, and with the departure of Donald Trump and particularly Bobby Jindal there were many GOP voters left for grabs for the candidates to pick. Helped by strong debate performances and a reliable campaign machine, Governor Chris Christie increased his lead by cracking 30%, suddenly released from the threat of a very credible challenger in Jindal. All in all Govenor Christie has been more or less successful in garnering support from different wings of the GOP, even with several Tea Party voters have slowly moved into other camps. Still, despide this lead Christie remains vulnerable in Iowa and far behind in South Carolina, leading some to wonder if an even more conservative challenge could defeat the frontrunner...

Enter Walter Jones and Adam Fletcher. Both candidates, previously unlikely longshots, have showed skill in appealing to particular areas of the GOP electorate to bolster their chances, with social conservatives beginning to turn out for Governor Fletcher as their man - evidenced by his strong numbers in Iowa and South Carolina - and the Tea Party has begun to embrace Congressman Jones following a fiery debate victory and the endorsement of Sarah Palin. Both are beginning to look like the more credible challengers against Christie, although much will depend on their ability to do well in the early states. Ron Paul is also maintaining himself strong and relevant, leading Nevada and being within shot of defeating Christie in Iowa but undercut by the limited amount of his potential supporters so far. Behind the main challengers is Adam Carolla, who nonetheless has a sizable following after the Donald Trump endorsement and ma yet play a key role if he plays his cards right. Congressman Upton, finally, appears to rely on a strong performance in New Hampshire to catapult himself into a surge.

RCP: Democratic Primary:

Hillary Clinton: 53%
Joe Biden: 28%
Russ Feingold: 14%
Undecided: 5%

Democrats: Clinton bests Biden on first round

Upon the departure of Governor Bredesen and the entry of Vice-President Biden into the Democratic race, many wondered what would happen with so few time before the Iowa caucuses. Vice-President Biden entered strong and without much of the baggage that dragged President Obama down, and after launching his first blows against Senator Clinton - angering many of her loyalists by denouncing a "Clinton dynasty" -, the Clinton machine went in full force against the Vice-President. Effective ads dealt significant damage to his standing and a resounding debate win for Hillary allowed the Senator to expand her national lead and significantly limit Biden's gains, who barely won more voters (most of those gains from the Bredesen supporters) than he lost.

The other side of the coin, of course, is represented both by Senator Feingold and by the Iowa question. Feingold himself as seen as solid in the debate and has made progress in building a "progressive coalition", allowing himself a polling increase which could concievably turn him into a kingmaker if a Clinton-Biden race becomes more competitive or in a challenger if Biden flounders. And while Vice-President Biden may have taken some losses, a decision to focus only in Iowa has put him in dead heat with Senator Clinton, Iowa still being a weak spot for her. With Feingold also strong it is impossible who tell who will win the Iowa caucus, but it may just be the change for any of the three candidates to achieve a dramatic victory.

[Lumine]

GOP Average Polling:

IOWA:

Chris Christie: 27%
Ron Paul: 24%
Ernie Fletcher: 18%
Walter Jones: 16%
Adam Carolla: 12%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 3%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Chris Christie: 37%
Ron Paul: 23%
Adam Carolla: 15%
Walter Jones: 9%
Fred Upton: 8%
Ernie Fletcher: 5%
Undecided: 3%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Walter Jones: 30%
Ernie Fletcher: 29%
Chris Christie: 17%
Ron Paul: 10%
Adam Carolla: 8%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 6%

FLORIDA:

Chris Christie: 33%
Adam Carolla: 17%
Walter Jones: 14%
Ron Paul: 13%
Ernie Fletcher: 11%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 11%

NEVADA:

Ron Paul: 30%
Adam Carolla: 19%
Chris Christie: 16%
Walter Jones: 16%
Ernie Fletcher: 9%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 10%

[Lumine]

DEM Average Polling:

IOWA:

Hillary Clinton: 35%
Joe Biden: 35%
Russ Feingold: 24%
Undecided: 6%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Hillary Clinton: 59%
Joe Biden: 21%
Russ Feingold: 16%
Undecided: 4%

NEVADA:

Hillary Clinton: 57%
Joe Biden: 33%
Russ Feingold: 6%
Undecided: 4%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Joe Biden: 40%
Russ Feingold: 5%
Undecided: 6%

FLORIDA:

Hillary Clinton: 56%
Joe Biden: 32%
Russ Feingold: 7%
Undecided: 5%

[Lumine]

Endorsements from Turn Three:

SPECIAL:

Des Moines Register: Hillary Clinton (Dem), Walter Jones (GOP)
Manchester Union Leader: Chris Christie (GOP)

Christie: Brian Sandoval, Kelly Ayotte.
Fletcher: Bill Owens, Mike Huckabee.
Corella: Mick Mulvaney, Arthur Laffer, Donald Trump.
Paul: Jesse Ventura, Barry Goldwater Jr.
Jones: Sarah Palin, Jeff Sessions, Butch Otter.
Upton: Mark Kirk.

Clinton: John Hickenlooper, Debbie Stabenow.
Biden: Beau Biden, John Kerry.

Clark: Rocky Anderson, Dan Boren.

[Lumine]

Debate Winners:

GOP:

With a rapidly shrinking field the latest GOP debate had six candidates on stage as well, and quite a spirited night they had. The debate was in many ways dominated by a tough exchange between Carolla and Christie on the issue of terrorism, and one that was widely seen as a significant victory for Christie (despite coming out wounded) because of the public's much more enthusastic response to his stances than that of Carolla, very popular among libertarians but not so much amongst the wider electorate. With Ernie Fletcher's solid responses (but without a breakthrough moment) landing him 3rd place and Christie's wounds from his round with Carolla leaving him in second despite very well recieved responses on corruption and Bush, it was Congressman Walter Jones who won the debate, particulary because of responses regarding the Tea Party that increased his exposure to a national audience. Congressman Upton was noted as being on much better form than past ocassions, but still far away from Republican orthodoxy on most issues.

DEM:

The stakes were high, and a large amount of Americans tuned in to the first debate between Senator Clinton and Vice-President Biden, with Senator Feingold returning to the debate stage as well. For most pundits the veredict was clear in that Senator Hillary Clinton had achieved a noteworthy victory against her newest challenger, even though she'd looked vulnerable at times (particularly as some former Obama supporters did boo her on one of her responses). It was believed Vice-President Biden gave a poor performance, particularly so on the North Korean issue, where Clinton managed to "twist the knife" and deliver a tough blow to the Vice-President. Biden wasn't helped as well by Clinton's response to the scandals Biden brought out, cementing his defeat. Senator Feingold avoided such controversy, thus achieving a strong second place that regained momentum for his bid.

[Lumine]

Turn closed. Please refrain from posting, updates will come through the night.

[Lumine]

Iowa Caucus, Part One:

"And here we are at CNN, covering the final hours of campaiging before the results of the important Iowa Caucus start coming in. Most candidates are relying on either a victory or a very strong result to allow their campaigns to show their viability, and the fight for the state has been rather heated, more so in the Republican field than the Democratic one. Frontrunners Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton are noted for their strong, organized campaigns, although for both Iowa represents a danger as compared to New Hampshire, were both enjoy strong polling leads. The final exit poll is about to come in a few moments, so in the meantime let's see what some Iowa voters had to say today:"

Footage of several Iowa residents across the state:

Voter 1: Well I've been for Senator Feingold since the first day. I believed Obama back in 2008 and came up disappointment, and I think Russ is the sort of politician who understands what must be done. I wish he'd been more open about his proposals though, many of my friends have moved back to undecided after not seeing him much on the state...

Voter 2: I'm voting for Clinton and I'll even canvass for her today, come what may. She was unfairly treated just for being a female candidate back in 08', and she would have been much better than Obama. I like the president, but I wish he was as good as governing as he is at talking.

Voter 3: As an African American I can't tell you how proud I was of President Obama. Things have been tough for him, and he more than deserved a second term. It wasn't right for Hillary to put her ambition first and treat Obama so unfairly, so I'm voting Biden today.

Voter 4: I was interested in what that governor from Tennessee had to say. He seemed honest and direct, until he started with those stupid conspiracy theories Republicans are always on about. I sure don't like Hillary and Biden seems way too old and hopeless, so I've decided none of them gets my vote. I liked what General Clark had to say, so I might vote for him in November.

Voter 5: One of the things I hate about living in Iowa is that I have to hear all that babble from politicians every four years for months, and it drives me crazy. At least Christie cuts through the c-, sorry, speaks his mind, so he has my support. It's such a weak field I won't believe it if Christie doesn't win.

Voter 6: As an Evangelical voter I take values very seriously. I like seeing so many pro-life candidates, but that's not always enough. I need to know the guy I'm voting for is a man of true faith. It took a lot of time, but I think I've found my man in Governor Fletcher. Hadn't heard of him before, but he sure seems like a man of faith. Many from my family and friends are voting for him today as well.

Voter 7: I liked Mitt Romney, or at least what he had to say as candidate. With him gone, I think it was obvious to support Christie, he seems like a candidate who can actually win and not sound crazy. Plus the Governor likes him, and I think Terry Branstad knows how to pick a candidate.

Voter 8: Dr. Paul is the only choice! America needs something different, it needs a man who knows you absolutely cannot trust government to do the right thing. I voted for him back in 08', and I'm happy to see so many new people supporting Dr. Paul. I think we can win today!

Voter 9: I didn't know Walter Jones at first, I suppose he was just another of those Congressmen to me. But you know, he's grown on me. He seems really serious about representing the views of the Tea Party, and I was starting to get worried I wouldn't have a candidate to represent me when Palin quit the race. He better win tonight, I'm sick of voting for moderates.

Voter 10: Didn't knew who to vote for until I saw the Donald speak, and it was just so obvious how all the candidates were more of the same. I don't quite get what Carolla's deal is, but at least he hasn't been in Washington forever. I'll vote for him, if only to send a message to those politicians that they should start caring a bit more about what happens to America.

[Lumine]

Iowa Caucus, Part Two:

"The exit poll is just about ready, so what do we think about the campaign so far? Let's start by looking at the Democrats."

Pundit 1: Come on, we all know this is Hillary's race to lose. With Obama gone she can't lose this primary, and much less if her rivals are Vice-President Biden or Senator Feingold.

Pundit 2: You say that, but polls do show Clinton much weaker in Iowa than nationwide...

Pundit 1: So what? Her rivals blew it. Biden can't stop putting his foot on his mouth and going all "Phil Bredesen" on the campaign trail and Feingold is basically not a factor anymore.

Pundit 3: I disagree, and I think you're underestimating the resistance Clinton still creates. Lest we forget, she unseated a sitting President, and there's many Obama supporters angry out there. A poll released today even showed Joe Biden had rising support among many African Americans.

Pundit 2: Probably an outlier though, it's hard to see those voters resisting Clinton so much. After all, they would have voted for her in 08' if a candidate of the caliber of Obama wasn't there.

Pundit 1: You miss the point, the thing is that just being anti Clinton can't win you the nomination. It can make things problematic for Hillary, but you need a vision to win. Feingold's got one, but he can't win the primary, much less a General Election.

Pundit 3: Biden's got a vision too. At least we should agree that defending Obama's legacy is a credible message.

Pundit 1: Yeah, but where's that? He'd rather talk NATO or conspiracy theories, or something like that. America doesn't quite care about that.

"Let's talk predictions. Who wins Iowa and by what margin?"

Pundit 1: Not her best state, but her campaign was strong. I say Clinton beats Biden by six or seven points.

Pundit 2: Not entirely sure, but I would bet Clinton over Biden, but no more than two, three points of difference.

Pundit 3: I'm going to take a risk here, I say Biden wins by one. All those Feingold voters may defect to another candidate just to stop Clinton.

[Lumine]

Iowa Caucus, Part Three:

"And the Republicans?"

Pundit 2: That's a tough one. I see Christie winning the primary, but there's no telling whether the GOP electorate will not fall in love with another challenge.

Pundit 1: Sure, it's possible, but who? It's a weak field right now, losing so many candidates over the past weeks has drained them of actual talent.

Pundit 3: You say that, but there are many accomplished candidates in that field. I can disagree on some issues with Jones, or Paul, or Fletcher, but they have records, experience and shouldn't be counted out.

Pundit 2: Walter Jones seems to be attracting a lot of attention right now. Still, there is a question of whether it may be too late for him to win Iowa.

Pundit 1: True, Evangelicans have been more and more prominent as potential Fletcher supporters. I suppose he could pull off an upset there. Same goes with Jones with the Tea Party, or Paul with his libertarian crowd.

Pundit 3: How about Carolla?

Pundit 2: *Laughs* Let's be serious now, he isn't a real candidate for President.

Pundit 3: He very much is. Laugh if you want, but many Republicans like outsiders and he polls strongly in some places.

Pundit 1: Be as it may, he's not winning Iowa. Maybe a state or two along the line, but I'd wager on him remaining fifth.

Pundit 2: And the less said of poor Fred Upton the better.

Pundit 1: Agreed.

"Predictions then. Which Republican wins this caucus?"

Pundit 1: Christie by a nose. He then gets a landslide in New Hampshire.

Pundit 2: Christie surprises and breaks 30%. His campaign was very impressive these past days.

Pundit 3: Upset win by a challenger I say, but a very narrow victory. If I had to guess, Fletcher scores the upset thanks to Evangelical voters.

[Lumine]

Iowa Caucus, Part Four:

"I have to interrupt you there, we have our very own exit poll and a projection of how we think results will be. Remember that this is just an exit poll with a margin of error of 3%, and given the sheer closeness of several candidates the final results may vary somewhat from this poll. On the Democratic side, the exit poll predicts...

IOWA:

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Joe Biden: 37%
Russ Feingold: 21%

"That Senator Clinton would defeat Vice-President Biden by five points, 42 to 37 percent. On the Republican side, the exit poll predicts:

IOWA:

Chris Christie: 24%
Ernie Fletcher: 23%
Walter Jones: 21%
Ron Paul: 19%
Adam Carolla: 12%
Fred Upton: 1%

"Well, that's a close result. It would predict a narrow Christie win over Fletcher with Jones in a strong third place, but the margin of error is large enough to allow for the possibility of even Ron Paul coming out on top.

[Lumine]

Iowa Caucus, Part Five:

"It's been a long night, and we can finally deliver our final results. When it comes to the Democratic side and after a tighter result than our exit poll predicted, Senator Hillary Clinton will defeat Vice-President Joe Biden:

Democratic Iowa Caucus:

Hillary Clinton: 40.83% (25)
Joe Biden: 38.61% (21)
Russ Feingold: 20.56% (10)

Democratic Primary:

Delegates:

Hillary Clinton: 25
Joe Biden: 21
Russ Feingold: 10

Superdelegates:

Hillary Clinton: 7
Joe Biden: 4
Russ Feingold: 1

"And in the Republican side of the night, it's Governor Chris Christie who pulls ahead, followed by Ernie Fletcher in second and Walter Jones in a strong third place:

Republican Iowa Caucus:

Chris Christie: 28.15% (19)
Ernie Fletcher: 22.97% (5)
Walter Jones: 20.47% (2)
Ron Paul: 18.56% (2)
Adam Carolla: 9.27%
Fred Upton: 0.58%

Republican Primary:

Delegates:

Chris Christie: 19
Ernie Fletcher: 5
Walter Jones: 2
Ron Paul: 2
Adam Carolla: 0
Fred Upton: 0

[Lumine]

Turn Six: We're off on the road to New Hampshire:

January 4th to January 10th, 2012

In the News!

Frontrunners survive Iowa

Both Clinton and Christie face commanding leads in New Hampshire

Do challengers have what it takes?

Biden, Jones and Fletcher show promise, but can they find a springboard?

Chief of Staff stands down

William Daley leaves the White House, replaced by Jack Lew

1.- Turn: This weekly turn covers the New Hampshire Primary, also subject to increasing momentum swings. There will be a debate for each party held in NH, which will have an impact on the results. Good luck!

GE Polling

RCP Average:
2012 Presidential Election:

Generic Republican: 46%
Generic Democrat: 43%
Wesley Clark: 7%
Undecided: 4%

Primary Polling

RCP: Republican Primary:

Chris Christie: 32%
Walter Jones: 21%
Ernie Fletcher: 20%
Ron Paul: 14%
Adam Carolla: 10%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 2%

Republicans: Christie on the lead

Even though Chris Christie faced increasing fire from other candidates, an extremely effective campaign sealed the deal for the Governor, allowing him a five-point win that cements him as the frontrunner. With New Hampshire approaching and a Christie victory in sight the Governor is close to becoming the anointed establishment candidate, but with some signs of trouble on account for Ernie Fletcher and Walter Jones's rise among evangelical and Tea Party voters. With Fred Upton stuck on the downside and Ron Paul and Adam Carolla still strong on more libertarian states, many wonder on how decisive the remaining January primaries will be. If Christe sweeps them he may ride all the way to the nomination, but his challengers may have far different plans...

RCP: Democratic Primary:

Hillary Clinton: 54%
Joe Biden: 30%
Russ Feingold: 14%
Undecided: 3%

Democrats: Can Clinton seal the deal?

Continuing a well-organized, efficient campaign which has proved miles more successful than her 2008 campaign Senator Clinton has survived Iowa, if narrowly. A challenge from Vice-President Biden and several frustrated Obama supporters came close, but Clinton's effective messaging and organizational support pushed her along the line. As a result, Senator Clinton is anointed in the media as the clear frontrunner heading for what could be a landslide in New Hampshire, and much like Christie could realistically vanquish Biden is she sweeps the January primaries.

On the other hand, Senator Russ Feingold's coalition of progressives remains strong despite a third-place in Iowa, and Biden supporters boast of the Vice-President's strong result despite a late campaign. Indeed, Biden has managed to break 30% in the national average, but his percieved lack of a message and the apparent focus on Clinton controversies appears to have done far more harm than good. While those who know the Vice-President are certain he has what it takes for a full-blown comeback, it remain to be seen what will happen.

[Lumine]

GOP Average Polling:

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Chris Christie: 38%
Ron Paul: 21%
Adam Carolla: 17%
Walter Jones: 10%
Fred Upton: 6%
Ernie Fletcher: 6%
Undecided: 2%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Ernie Fletcher: 31%
Walter Jones: 31%
Chris Christie: 18%
Ron Paul: 9%
Adam Carolla: 7%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 4%

FLORIDA:

Chris Christie: 35%
Walter Jones: 16%
Adam Carolla: 15%
Ernie Fletcher: 14%
Ron Paul: 12%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 7%

NEVADA:

Ron Paul: 29%
Chris Christie: 18%
Adam Carolla: 18%
Walter Jones: 17%
Ernie Fletcher: 11%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 7%

[Lumine]

DEM Average Polling:

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Hillary Clinton: 60%
Joe Biden: 23%
Russ Feingold: 15%
Undecided: 2%

NEVADA:

Hillary Clinton: 56%
Joe Biden: 35%
Russ Feingold: 6%
Undecided: 3%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Joe Biden: 43%
Russ Feingold: 5%
Undecided: 3%

FLORIDA:

Hillary Clinton: 58%
Joe Biden: 33%
Russ Feingold: 6%
Undecided: 3%

[Lumine]

Endorsements from Turn Four:

Christie: Terry Branstad
Fletcher: Jim DeMint, Newt Gingrich.
Corella: 50 Cent.
Paul: Andrew Napolitano, Raul Labrador.
Jones: Steve King, Michelle Bachmann.
Upton: Charles Bass.

Clinton: Tom Harkin, Dave Loebsack.
Biden: Shelly Berkeley, Jim Clyburn.

Clark: Leon Panetta.

[Lumine]

5th Democratic Presidential Debate:

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[Lumine]

5th Republican Presidential Debate:

Note: Rather than candidate specific questions, this debate will innovate a bit with four general questions. That will allow a more straight comparison and would make debate and criticism easier, hopefully.

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[Lumine]

Extra GOP Polling:

MAINE:

Chris Christie: 31%
Ron Paul: 25%
Adam Carolla: 15%
Walter Jones: 11%
Ernie Fletcher: 8%
Fred Upton: 2%
Undecided: 8%

MINNESOTA:

Walter Jones: 26%
Ernie Fletcher: 24%
Ron Paul: 21%
Chris Christie: 14%
Adam Carolla: 8%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 7%

COLORADO:

Chris Christie: 33%
Walter Jones: 20%
Ernie Fletcher: 18%
Ron Paul: 11%
Adam Carolla: 10%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 8%

MISSOURI:

Walter Jones: 29%
Ernie Fletcher: 28%
Chris Christie: 22%
Ron Paul: 8%
Adam Carolla: 6%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 7%

ARIZONA:

Chris Christie: 31%
Walter Jones: 25%
Ernie Fletcher: 19%
Ron Paul: 10%
Adam Carolla: 7%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 8%

MICHIGAN:

Chris Christie: 29%
Ernie Fletcher: 19%
Walter Jones: 18%
Fred Upton: 16%
Ron Paul: 7%
Adam Carolla: 4%
Undecided: 7%