Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)

[Lumine]

More polls! This time the more reliable Adimark:

Opinion Poll:

Adimark, July 3rd:

Bachelet Approval: 30%/63%

Presidential:

Voting Intention:

Piñera 31%
Guillier 15%
Sanchez 13%
Ossandon 4%
F. Kast 3%
Mayol 3%
Goic 2%
J. A. Kast 1%
Parisi 1%
Ominami 1%
Others 3%
Undecided 23%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 59%, Guiller 17%, Sanchez 4%, Ossandon 2%, Goic 1%, Other/None 17%

If you consider coalitions:

Chile Vamos: 39%
Nueva Mayoria: 17%
Frente Amplio: 16%
Others: 5%

[Lumine]

With a favorable vote of 95% of party councilors the centrist liberal party Amplitud (created after a splinter in RN and the right in 2014) has endorsed Sebastian Piñera as their nominee, thanks in great part due to lobbying by Amplitud Senator Lily Perez, a known ally of the former President.

While Amplitud is still set to run on a parliamentary list with Ciudadanos and not with Chile Vamos, it should aid Piñera on a projected rush towards the political center.

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, July 10th:

Bachelet Approval: 25%/64%

Presidential:

Voting Intention (OPEN)

Piñera 30% (+8)
Sanchez 15% (+4)
Guillier 9%
Ossandon 2% (-5)
Goic 1%
J. A. Kast 1%
Parisi 1%
F. Kast 1% (-4)
Others 5%
Undecided 35% (+1)

Voting Intention (likely voters, closed question)

Piñera 30%
Sanchez 21%
Guillier 13%
Parisi 4%
Goic 3%
J. A. Kast 3%
Ominami 2%
Undecided 24%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 66%, Guiller 11%, Sanchez 6%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 16%

Who do you prefer to govern: Chile Vamos 33%, Frente Amplio 18%, Nueva Mayoria 13%, Democracia Cristiana 8%, None/Other 28%,

If you consider coalitions:

Chile Vamos: 34%
Frente Amplio: 15%
Nueva Mayoria: 10%
Others: 6%

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, July 17th:

Bachelet Approval: 25%/64%

Presidential:

Voting Intention (All voters)

Piñera 30%
Sanchez 19%
Guillier 15%
J. A. Kast 4%
Goic 2%
Ominami 2%
Parisi 2%
Undecided 26

Voting Intention (likely voters)

Piñera 40%
Sanchez 23%
Guillier 20%
J. A. Kast 3%
Parisi 3%
Goic 2%
Ominami 2%
Undecided 6%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 63%, Guiller 13%, Sanchez 7%, Goic 1%, Ominami, 1%, Kast 1%, Other/None 14%

[Lumine]

Is Sánchez having a real rise in support or is this just her consolidating support/having a bump from winning the FA primary?

I would have to say the second is looking more likely now. As it stands she's losing ground in the polls again (and has been a bit silent on the past few days) while Guillier recovers some points. It seems the exposure from the primary helped a lot, but it doesn't seem this is a definitive rise in support yet.

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, July 24th:

Bachelet Approval: 26%/61%

Presidential:

Voting Intention (All voters)

Piñera 31%
Sanchez 16%
Guillier 16%
J. A. Kast 4%
Ominami 3%
Goic 2%
Parisi 2%
Undecided 25%

Voting Intention (likely voters)

Piñera 40%
Sanchez 21%
Guillier 21%
J. A. Kast 4%
Parisi 2%
Goic 2%
Ominami 2%
Undecided 8%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 65%, Guiller 14%, Sanchez 9%, Goic 1%, Parisi 1%, Other/None 10%

[Lumine]

Franco Parisi drops out (to run for Senate instead), Guillier finally presents about 60,000 signatures to confirm his candidacy. Field currently as follows:

Cleared to enter the first round:

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Chile Vamos)
Senator Alejandro Guiller (Nueva Mayoria)
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (Frente Amplio)

Senator Carolina Goic (Democracia Cristiana)
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO)
Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Independent)
Eduardo Artes (Union Patriotica)

Not yet cleared to enter:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais)
Roxana Miranda (ANDHA)
Nicolas Shea (Todos)
Abraham Larrondo (Independent)
Carola Canelo (Independent)
Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (Independent)
Marcel Claude (Independent)

(Note: All of those who haven't reached the first round yet are doubtful to do so, probably a couple or three at best will manage to gather the signatures)

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, August 7th:

Bachelet Approval: 26%/64%

Presidential:

Voting Intention (All voters)

Piñera 39%
Sanchez 18%
Guillier 15%
Goic 5%
J. A. Kast 3%
Parisi 3%
Ominami 2%
Undecided 24%

Voting Intention (likely voters)

Piñera 40%
Sanchez 20%
Guillier 20%
Goic 6%
J. A. Kast 3%
Ominami 2%
Parisi 1%
Undecided 8%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 67%, Guiller 11%, Sanchez 7%, Goic 1%, Parisi 1%, J. A. Kast 1%, Other/None 12%

[Lumine]

Several of the less hopeful candidates drop out as there's only two days left to present the signatures (Jocelyn-Holt and Shea included), and with eight candidates currently cleared for the first round it seems unlikely the field will grow larger than that:

Cleared to enter the first round:

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Chile Vamos)
Senator Alejandro Guiller (Nueva Mayoria)
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (Frente Amplio)
Senator Carolina Goic (Democracia Cristiana)
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO)
Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Independent)
Eduardo Artes (Union Patriotica)
Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais)

Not yet cleared to enter:

Roxana Miranda (ANDHA)
Carola Canelo (Independent)
Marcel Claude (Independent)

So you'd have Kast (conservative right), Piñera (center-right), Goic (center to center-left), Guillier (social-democratic left), Ominami (progressive left), Navarro ("boliviarian" style left), Sanchez (student-aligned left) and Artes (hardcore left). Usually it doesn't really matter to see many left-wing candidates, but unlike 2013 the left is really fragmented this time around.

While Piñera does have to worry about Kast taking quite a few of his voters on the first round, he is not going to be outflanked from the center (certainly not with Goic polling badly). He seems to consolidate as a favorite to win, much more than what it looked like by the start of the year.

[Lumine]

The economic team of the government resigned today, including both the Finance and the Economy ministers. It's going from bad to worse for Bachelet...

[Lumine]

New polls!

Cadem:

Piñera 42%
Guillier 18%
Sanchez 17%
J. A. Kast 4%
Goic 4%
Ominami 1%
Navarro 1%
Artes 1%
Undecided 12%

CEP:

Piñera 39.8%
Guillier 18.1%
Sanchez 17.9%
Goic 5.4%
J. A. Kast 3.4%
Ominami 1.8%
Navarro 0%
Artes 0%
Undecided 10.8%

Adimark:

Piñera 34%
Guillier 16%
Sanchez 15%
Goic 5%
J. A. Kast 2%
Ominami 1%
Navarro 0%
Artes 0%
Undecided 27%

[Lumine]

About another month of campaign has passed, and believe it or not, it has been incredibly boring. Piñera retains his lead as Guillier re-emerges as his main contender, Sanchez and the FA steadily losing support as they continue to run a rather disappointing campaign.

With about a month left to go, here is the latest poll, released today:

Cadem: Likely Voters

Piñera 43%
Guillier 20%
Sanchez 13%
J. A. Kast 5%
Goic 4%
Ominami 4%
Navarro 0%
Artes 0%
Undecided 11%

Cadem: All Voters

Piñera 34%
Guillier 15%
Sanchez 12%
J. A. Kast 4%
Goic 4%
Ominami 4%
Navarro 0%
Artes 0%
Undecided 27%

Cadem: Runoff Scencarios:

Piñera 51%
Guillier 36%
Undecided 13%

Piñera 53%
Sanchez 33%
Undecided 14%

Piñera 51%
Goic 27%
Undecided 22%

Piñera 54%
Ominami 22%
Undecided 24%

Piñera 50%
J. A. Kast 14%
Undecided 26%

[Lumine]

Another weekly poll:

Cadem: Likely Voters

Piñera 42%
Guillier 21%
Sanchez 13%
J. A. Kast 5%
Goic 5%
Ominami 3%
Navarro 1%
Artes 0%
Undecided 10%

Cadem: Runoff:

Piñera 47%
Guillier 42%
Undecided 11%

[Lumine]

I haven't updated this closely because, well, it's been a rather dull and boring campaign. Piñera retains his strong lead in the polls no whatever what attacks are launched against him, and the center-left to left candidates are engaged in all-out war to reach the second round. Marco Enriquez-Ominami has been particularly vocal in taking down Guillier, so much that there are clues that he might do much better than expected in the first round.

With a week to go (and proyections of a deeply divided Congress), this was the final Cadem poll before the two-week polling blackout:

Cadem: Likely Voters

Piñera 45%
Guillier 23%
Sanchez 14%
J. A. Kast 6%
Goic 6%
Ominami 5%
Navarro 0,5%
Artes 0,5%

Cadem: Run-Off

Piñera v. Guillier:
Piñera 50%
Guillier 38%

Piñera v. Sanchez:
Piñera 51%
Sanchez 36%

Piñera v. Kast:
Piñera 49%
J. A. Kast 18%

Piñera v. Goic:
Piñera 50%
Goic 31%

Piñera v. Ominami:
Piñera 51%
Ominami 29%

[Lumine]

Widespread shock today as Senator Fulvio Rossi (expelled from the Socialists some time ago and now seeking reelection as an independent) was attacked today morning, being stabbed in the abdomen. He is in a grave condition but in no vital risk, and there's a significant degree of speculation as to why he was attacked (some of his supporters point to his harsh stance on illegal immigration, some, like a Communist Deputy, imply it was a self-inflicted or planned attack).

[Lumine]

Seems like Piñera will win in a landslide. Any chance he wins in the first round by getting more than 50%?

It's possible, but unlikely, Kast should draw several right-wing voters away from Piñera and the whole matter depends strongly on turnout. If turnout is unusually low then Piñera has a chance to win on the first round (as polls show his supporters are far more committed to show up), and if turnout was to be higher than 50% or so then I'd say his chances of outright victory are very low.

As to a second round, it all depends on the distance with his main challenger (probably Guillier). If the difference is greater than 15% experts believe Piñera will win without problems. If it's less than 15%, Piñera could still lose the second round if the left unites against him.

[Lumine]

It will be quite an exciting day! Here's hoping for a strong victory for the center-right, although everything depends on turnout.

Tomorrow I will vote for president, deputy and Core (regional council), my choices are:

-President: Leaning Guillier
-Deputy: Fernando Atria, from the Socialist Party, constitutional lawyer and part of the wing of the PS that is in favor of a closer relationship with the Frente Amplio. I'm actually very happy for this vote, and I convinced some people to vote for him! . My district is very right wing (and the wealthiest in the country) but I think Atria is the best candidate to get the left-wing vote here.
-CORE: Marco Undurraga, from the Socialist Party, he is an english teacher for a engineering company and he is the finance chair of the company union. I really don't know his chances but I feel comfortable of voting for him.

Interesting, seb_pard, from what you've said so far Atria makes perfect sense but I was a bit surprised you're leaning Guillier, I would have been certain you'd go for Sanchez.

As for myself I've decided not to go for Piñera in the first round and vote Kast instead, I rather like his economic agenda and his intentions to cut down on the size of government, even if strongly oppose his stances on social issues. I'll probably vote for RN candidates for Senate, Deputy and CORE as well.

[Lumine]

Turnout would appear to be higher than expected, it will be interesting to see how it will affect the results.

[Lumine]

It was quite a night, Chile Vamos and the right won an astounding victory in Congress and with the Frente Amplio having such an unexpectedly good performance Nueva Mayoria is now reduced to virtually a third of the Chamber of Deputies. The candidate I was working for also won with some good numbers, so I'm very much encouraged after last night.

As to the second round, it's impossible to say. On one hand, it shouldn't be feasible for Guillier to go from 22% to more than 50% given the large distance involved, but on the other hand it is hard to see where Piñera could gain more votes among those who already voted on the first round. Even if we assume Kast voters all go for him and most of the Christian Democrats do too (which is a bit of a far-fetched scenario) it still doesn't amount to 50%.

It will be tense, although I've relaxed after seeing the numbers in Congress. Even if Guillier is elected he'll be a lameduck with that level of support, not even a deal with the Frente Amplio (which would be extremely divisive) will get him a parliamentary majority. If Piñera fails, well, we'll just have to stand strong in Congress and try another time.

[Lumine]

So what do the Congress results look like? I can't find anything on Wikipedia.

Senate (43):

Chile Vamos (19): 9 UDI, 8 RN, 2 EVO
Nueva Mayoria (16): 7 PPD, 7 PS, 1 PRSD, 1 IND
Frente Amplio (1): 1 RD
Other (7): 5 PDC, 1 PAIS, 1 IND

Deputies (155):

Chile Vamos (73): 36 RN, 31 UDI, 6 EVO
Nueva Mayoria (43): 18 PS, 9 PRSD, 8 PPD, 8 PC
Frente Amplio (20): 10 RD, PH 5, PL 2, PEV 1, PI, 1, PODER 1
Other (19): 13 PDC, 4 FRSV, 1 PRO, 1 IND

[Lumine]

Cas Mudde, expert on the populist radical right in Europe and the U.S., tweeted that José Antonio Kast is "far right". What is his profile exactly, beyond what was said in the OP?

I would assert the "far-right" monicker to be rather misguided, Kast is a right-winger and has a fair share of alt-right followers (very present in social media), but to put him aside people like Le Pen for example would be a mistake.

Kast is for all purposes a staunchly social conservative, pro-free market figure with a hard-line profile given his ocassional ties to pro-Pinochet views (unlike many in UDI, it should be noted Kast was not in politics during Pinochet's regime), but with a platform with views that would be considered normal for a right-wing candidate in other parts of the world. He supports fighting the deficit, reducing the government size, some increased gun rights and he has a strong anti-left discourse.

He's demonized as this uber pro-Pinochet right winger by quite a few, but the more I learned about Kast during the campaign the more interested he seemed regardless of how much I disapprove of many of his policies. Being a country that leans to the center-left and Piñera being in permanent moderate hero mode, it's refreshing seeing a presidential candidate actually defending right-wing views or policies.

[Lumine]

The campaign to win over more allies is in full force! Piñera has gathered Jose Antonio Kast and his bitter rival Senator Jose Manuel Ossandon, solifidying the right behind him. He's also recieved support from some members of the centrist liberal party Ciudadanos, although Andres Velasco has remained neutral. Guillier has recieved the endorsements of Goic, Navarro and Ominami, plus the Federación Regionalista Verde Social (a minor party that just won 4 Deputies thanks to the new electoral system).

Several parties inside the Frente Amplio have refused to support Guillier or declared their party members are free to vote for any candidate (that is to say, to freely vote Guillier or not vote at all). It is however possible that Revolucion Democratica (by far the most powerful party inside the coalition) decides to support Guillier.

There's the first poll too, from Cadem. Cadem itself has come under heavy fire for overestimating Piñera and underestimating Sanchez, so don't read too much into it:

Cadem: Runoff:

Piñera 40%
Guillier 37%
Undecided 23%

[Lumine]

Just finished a first riund map of results by commune. It's too big-sized for uploading to my gallery, so I'll leave a link.

https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/chile-2017.png

Great work, Velasco!

[Lumine]

Wow, Guillier may yet win this.

I would argue he has a 40-45% chance of winning, actually. Piñera's ceiling is way too low, so it's all depending on turnout. If more than 60-70% of Sanchez voters turn out for Guillier, Piñera is toast.

Either way it should be awfully close, closest election since 1999-2000.

[Lumine]

This will be a tense afternoon... I want to think Piñera pulls it off as it doesn't look like turnout was strong, but I'm prepared for a very narrow Guillier win based on mere anti-Piñera voters.

[Lumine]

Early projection from Radio Bio Bio has Piñera in the lead, still a long way to go.