UK 1997: Major, Conservatives to lead Britain into the new millennium

[Lumine]

You need way too many things to go different for the Tories in order for them to stand a chance in 97', and if the scenario is John Major as incumbent PM against Blair then I don't see how. Good economy or not, the party was bitterly divided, in shambles and it's reputation was incredibly low, not to mention the campaign was also indecisive and Major seemed beyond exhausted (I don't blame him).  That said, it should be noted that the Tories changing leaders in 95 does not mean they'll do better at all, Major always polled higher than, I believe, any other potential Tory leader at the time and, ironically, was probably an asset in some ways.

I mean, during the 92-97' Parliament the Tories saw their economic credibility utterly destroyed with Black Wednesday, they had to face sex scandals left and right, saw open civil war erupt over Maastricht (and had to contend with the Referendum Party), Major was often undermined and sniped by Thatcher and what he called "the bastards", their majority left them with little ground to maneuver on (and it turned into a minority by the end) and had to fight a finally competent Labour under Blair and Mandelson.

I've read elsewhere that one of the largest problems with that particular Tory Government was that the Conservatives in all likelihood did not expect to win the 92' GE at all, which is probably why they placed so much emphasis on Labour increasing taxes when any Government would have been forced to raise them. To make matters worse, they were left with a small majority that turned into nothing as they tried to buy time to be in a better position at the next election... better position that never came at all.