Paul manages to do this well, how? With the aid of libertarian fairy dust and the free market?
Polls during the primary season showed Obama beating Paul by roughly the same margin as Romney. With that in mind, Paul would probably perform better in more libertarian-leaning states (CO, NH, NV) and worse in states more dependent on government largesse (FL, OH, VA, NC)
You have to take into account the process of the GE season between Obama and Paul. The Republican Convention would probably be a mess, and some republicans might openly encourage voters to stay home. Besides, if Romney couldn't take Colorado and New Hampshire I don't see Paul carrying those states, despite his advantages in the youth vote and the enthusiasm of libertarians he is unelectable, and the voters would see him as crazy instead of an honest politician. Obama could easily carry states like Missouri and Georgia.
