Quebec 2022 Election

[Poirot]

Two Segma riding polls showing CAQ dominating in regions. It gives CAQ 59% in Chicoutimi and 56% in Jonquière.

My local PLQ candidate stopped by while I was outside and asked for my signature to get the number of signatures needed to be allowed to run. I think there are only five days left to do this. So today I helped democracy.

[Poirot]

Pontiac would be a big surprise. It would be a CAQ dreams to sweep the Outaouais but so far I think most think PLQ will hold. I haven't heard of it being a PCQ target or if they have a lot of members. I've seen federal Pontiac had the most votes in Quebec in the federal leadership election. I don't know if CPC tranlsates to PCQ, if there is PCQ media support like there could be for Poilievre (maybe not if some listen to Ottawa stations).

In 2018 PLQ got 54% and CAQ 20%. PLQ would need to lose half its vote, CAQ only make small gain ot not at all so PCQ would need near 30% to win.

The language most spoken at home in the riding in 2016 was 52% French, 38% English and the rest multiple languages or other languages. I imagine English is higher now because the latest census showed English gaining in Gatineau, people moving from Ontario and a lot settling in Aylmer.

There is a list of ridings to watch in the Montreal area (mostly PLQ potential losses).
https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-ridings-to-watch-in-the-montreal-region

The pecentage for parties on the map in the article is projection from poll aggregator, not past results.

[Poirot]

Pontiac would be a big surprise. It would be a CAQ dreams to sweep the Outaouais but so far I think most think PLQ will hold. I haven't heard of it being a PCQ target or if they have a lot of members. I've seen federal Pontiac had the most votes in Quebec in the federal leadership election. I don't know if CPC tranlsates to PCQ, if there is PCQ media support like there could be for Poilievre (maybe not if some listen to Ottawa stations).

In 2018 PLQ got 54% and CAQ 20%. PLQ would need to lose half its vote, CAQ only make small gain ot not at all so PCQ would need near 30% to win.

The language most spoken at home in the riding in 2016 was 52% French, 38% English and the rest multiple languages or other languages. I imagine English is higher now because the latest census showed English gaining in Gatineau, people moving from Ontario and a lot settling in Aylmer.

There is a list of ridings to watch in the Montreal area (mostly PLQ potential losses).
https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-ridings-to-watch-in-the-montreal-region

The pecentage for parties on the map in the article is projection from poll aggregator, not past results.

Is that people moving from Ottawa to the Outaouais? Is that for cheaper housing prices?

Rent and housing is much cheaper, but with the increased taxes it evens out.

Yes, it's for housing.
I found an article that says in the year 2020-2021 4,000 to 4,500 Ontarians came live in Gatineau.
In the 2021 census there were 5,000 more unilingual anglophones in Gatineau than in the 2016 census. We were talking about Pontiac so only the west side of Gatineau but some people probably went there.

[Poirot]

For the September 15th debate there are three big blocs of topics.

Environment, quality of life, economy
Health, family, education
Immigration, language, identity

49% think the second one is most important to them, 39% the first and 9% the third.
34% may change their vote
30% think Legault will win, 11% Duhaime, 9% Nadeau-Dubois, 6% Anglade, 4% St-Pierre Plamondon

[Poirot]

Three parties have the name of the leader in the official party name (and appear on the ballot): CAQ, PCQ and Bloc Montreal.

[Poirot]

There are some debate performance numbers.

Mainstreet asked which leader won the first debate:
Legault 18%
St-Pierre Plamondon 16%
Nadeau-Dubois 15%
Duhaime 15%
Anglade 8%
Undecided 28%

Léger for TVA on who won the debate:
Nadeau-Dubois18%
St-Pierre Plamondon 16%
Duhaime 10%
Legault 9%
Anglade 3%

St-Pierre Plamondon did the best in surpassing expectations. They were very low sinceon questions like who would make best premier or will win the debate the result can be counted on one hand.
28% say he did better than what they expected, 20% met expectations, 16% worse than what they expected
Nadeau-Dubois: did better 22%, same 28%, worse 16%
Duhaime:  better 14%, same 29%, worse 21%
Anglade: better 6%, same 30%, worse 29%
Legault: better 4%, same 30%, worse 36%

Legault had the highest expectations, I think 30% thought he would win.

[Poirot]

I think I remember the Duhaime thing, it was first gay leader of a conservative party in Canada or North America. Could not tell if it's true. Maybe the region got left off.

There are five themes for tonight's debate.
Environment
Cost of living and the economy
Health
Education and services to citizens
French, immigration and identity

[Poirot]

I don't like the big differences in polling. Qs is either at 21% Ekos or 11% Mainstreet. PCQ is 12% Ekos or 17% Mainstreet. If you do an average you get Léger, opposition parties in the mid teens.

[Poirot]

The trend of more voters casting ballots before election day continues. 22.9% have already voted.

Quebec City region is where advanced voting was more popular. I think overall they vote more.

Louis-Hébert 39,50%   So half of all votes probably already cast!
Lévis 33,77 %
Chauveau 32,53%
Vanier-Les-Rivières 31,94%
Charlesbourg 31,74%

Ridings with low advance voting are mostly Liberal Montreal island ridings, not really contested.

Ungava 6,96%
D’Arcy-McGee 10,55%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 12,44%
Acadie 12,66%
Saint-Laurent 12,83%

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/voter-turnout/

[Poirot]

Seems like the Liberal vote is not very enthusiastic so probably lower turnout.

Other numbers in the Léger poll:

St-Pierre Plamondon is considered the winner of the second debate by 21%, Nadeau-Dubois 12%, Duhaime 10%, Legault 9%, Anglade 6%. He is also the one who did better than expectations.

He has now almost caught up to Nadeau-Dubois has prefered leader of the opposition, 25% vs 27%. Anglade is at 15% and Duhaime 13%. Anglade numbers have improved.

PCQ vote is the most firm with 80% saying they won't change their mind. CAQ is at 75% and the other three parties about 60%.

PQ is the most popular second choice, 26%, QS 19%, CAQ 12%, PLQ 11%, PCQ 6%. PCQ very limited room to grow. PQ is the second choice of over 40% of CAQ and QS voters.

The overall vote by age according to Léger:
QS leads the 18-34 age group with 39% followed by CAQ at 18%.
CAQ leads the over 55 with 49%, PLQ 19%, PQ 18%

In Quebec City CAQ leads 38% to PCQ 24%, QS 15%.

The franco vote: CAQ 43, PQ 19, QS 18, PCQ 14, PLQ 7
Non-francophone: PLQ 46, PCQ 18, CAQ 16, QS 15, PQ 3

[Poirot]

Forum research released a poll tonight.

CAQ 36.8
PQ 17.2
PLQ 15.4
PCQ 14.4
QS 14.3
Other 1.9

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/3126/caq-in-the-lead/

The final Mainstreet poll

CAQ 41.4
PCQ 16.7
PLQ 14.8
PQ 14
QS 12
Other 1.2

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/Quebec_2022_PDFs/2022-10-02_QC_Daily_Tracker.pdf
Their seat projection: CAQ 105, PLQ 13, QS 6, PQ 1, PCQ 0

Research co

CAQ 41
PLQ 16
PCQ 16
QS 14
PQ 12

https://researchco.ca/2022/10/02/quebec-election-2022-final/

[Poirot]

Stats from 338Canada twitter. The median vote share for the 125 ridings by party.

CAQ 45,2 %
PQ 13,6 %
QS 13,1 %
PCQ 10,4 %
PLQ 7,9 %

[Poirot]

A map of the election results by voting subdivision from Le Devoir. It's searchable by postal code or address. It's for votes on voting day. It doesn't take into account advanced voting which has become very important.

Le Devoir says CAQ won 64% of voting subdivisions on voting day compared to 60% in 2018. It won all subdivisions in 11 ridings. PLQ swept two ridings (Robert Baldwin and Jacques Cartier. QS won all Gouin and PQ Matane-Matapédia.

The most CAQ with over 80% was a voting division in a part of Chicoutimi. The most Conservative is Saint-Honoré-de-Shenley in Beauce-Sud with 68%. The most Liberal is Grosse-Ile in Iles-de-la-Madeleine with 85%. It's an anglophone part of the islands. The most QS is in Gouin and the most PQ with 84% is Saint-Jean-de-Cherbourg in Matane-Matapédia.

Bloc Montreal won a division in Saint-Laurent. The article says the atikamek, cree, innu voted QS. Waswanipi (cree) is 94% QS, this is where the QS candidate in Ungava is from. In Duplessis almost all the innu in Mingan voted QS. The inuit communities voted Liberal, the Liberal candidate in Ungava was inuit.

[Poirot]

Bloc Montreal won a division in Saint-Laurent.

This is very clearly a transcription error. The Liberals, who won every other poll in the riding "won" just 2% in that one poll, while BM got 0-2% in the surrounding polls.

There was a request to investigate the counting of the vote in that poll in Saint-Laurent considering the unusual official result. A journalist has found more people who claim they voted PLQ in that section than the result. Elections Quebec has refused to investigate.

I don't know if it could be a voluntary move by a Bloc Montreal partisan or just a mistake of writing numbers on different lines.

[Poirot]

The Quebec tradition of naming ridings after people continues...

They wanted to add a woman's name. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie is a long name and they say she has no specific link to the riding, just Quebec as a whole. I don't know if they could find a historic woman from the area (with a shorter name).

The commission has regrouped Estrie and Centre-du-Québec and treat it as one region. I would like to see the number of voters in Estrie to see if it's possible to add the riding in Estrie exclusively and respect the administrative region as much as possible.
I have already seen reaction of towns moved. Val-des-Sources (new name of Asbestos) doesn't want to be taken out of its Estrie region and be put in a Centre-du-Québec mainly riding.
Saint-Rosaire doesn't want to leave Arthabaska and be put in Nicolet-Bécancour.

[Poirot]

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/electoral-maps/review-of-quebecs-electoral-map/

New electoral map proposal for Quebec.
Only 50 of the 125 seats are changed, two abolished ridings and two new ones.

I'm posting here since it's where there was talk of the new electoral map proposal for 2026.

The political parties all agree to stop the work for a new electoral map. For 2026 it's the status quo. Ridings stay the same. Good for places that could have lost a riding but bad for already too big ridings (Brome Mississquoi is already 33% above average).

Parties will discuss criteria that should be used to draw ridings. Probably a distance criteria to protect some regions and their political weight. Montreal members want total population to be a factor and not electors because they receive a lot of demands from non voting individuals at their offices. There are also some who want more ridings since the population has grown over the years. A map should be in place for 2030 with the set of criteria.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-electoral-map-review-bill-suspension-1.7158497