Canadian Election 2019

[Poirot]

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

[Poirot]

Seems weird at first, but don't forget how crazy and disorganised the Liberal candidate and local party were last time - some of the voters who wanted to vote liberal last time may get a chance this time and so are returning. Still, +15 when they tanked further up the island is something. And remember it's a riding poll from Mainstreet, which can sometimes be wildly off.

Another thing: are these figures candidate-specific, or are they just based on generic federal preferences?  (Might explain both Lib and Con being up--I can see both options "strategized" downwards come e-day)

For the Beauce riding poll the choices are parties with leader's name. The riding canddiates are not all selected yet. I imagine the other Mainstreet riding polls are done the same way.

[Poirot]

The NDP has withdrawn the candidacy of Pierre Nantel in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert because he has talks with the Green party about possibly running for them.  He is out of caucus.

[Poirot]

The NDP has withdrawn the candidacy of Pierre Nantel in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert because he has talks with the Green party about possibly running for them.  He is out of caucus.

Didn't he also flirt with the Bloc Quebecois and/or the Parti Quebecois?  Seems like a strange person.

A few months ago there were news stories asking if he would join the Bloc. He was seen at a restaurant with the Bloc leader. I heard then they are long time friends.

Nantel could be considered a nationalist. Fought on issues of culture and language. He went against his party and voted for the motion on a single tax return in Quebec with the Conservative and Bloc.

In January he said Quebec MPs of all parties should better defend Quebec's interest in Ottawa.
https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/01/23/le-quebec-est-mal-represente-a-ottawa-selon-un-depute-du-npd

Seems like he could fit in the Bloc.  His priority is climate emergency so maybe he saw the Greens as the best option for that. He wrote the climate emergency must be put ahead of independance, and for months invited parties to put away their differences for the planet, not let the two pro-oil partiies (Conservative and Liberal) increase oil production. I don't know if it means some electoral alliance between the other parties.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1263535/npd-destitution-candidat-pierre-nantel-parti-vert-elections-federales   

[Poirot]

So Saint-Léonard Saint-Michel might still get their Italian of origin MP   

[Poirot]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Does Scheer speech about same sex marriages in 2005 had impact on latest CBC forecasts?

Not yet. Canadians don't pay much attention to politics in the summer. I see exactly one poll since the Liberals attacked him on SSM and it shows no change. That's not to say it won't have an effect, but I wouldn't expect to see it until September.

Might be the abortion position that hurts more. Conservative Party usually have to deal with fears of social conservative agenda.

The extra month of official campaign we had in 2015 looks to me this time as the government party campaigning before the others. There have been a lot of announcements, distributing money for projects. It gives the government positive visibility while the opposition parties are much less covered. 

[Poirot]

(if anyone could remind me what the specific region is called that would be great)

Do you mean the 905 area code

[Poirot]

Full data of the weekend's Léger poll.

34% Lib, 33% CPC, 12% NDP, 12% Green, 5% Bloc, 3% PPC

https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Federal-Politics-August-31-2019.pdf

The two main parties have more male support than female. I thought Trudeau and Liberals would be higer among female. Maybe it's just this one poll. The Green support is more female than male, so is the NDP.

In Ontario, Léger has the Liberals ahead 39% to 32% CPC with NDP 15% and Green 11%.

By age group, the Greens are pretty even among the three age groups. I thought it would skew younger. The NDP does much better among under 35 than other two groups. The Bloc does much worse among the younger group.

They have other questions...

Party you would never vote for: Lib 23% CPC 20%, PPC 16%, NDP 10%

35% say it's possible they vote Green, 48% out of the question

37% are very or somehat satisfied with the government, 57% on the dissatisfied side

Government's track record is rather positive for 21%, 28% neither positive or negative, 46% rather negative

Best PM: Trudeau 26%, Scheer 19, May 8, Singh 6, Bernier 4 (Trudeau numbers up, Scheer down)

Liberals deserve a second mandate: yes 31%, no 48%, Not sure don't know 21%

34% believe the Conservatives are ready to form government, 45% No, 22% don't know

Leaders debates important in making decision: 46% yes, 43 No

Should Maxime Bernier participate in debates: Yes 52%, No 24%, Don't know 24

For Quebec sample, best positioned to defend's Quebec interests: Bloc 31%, Lib 20%, CPC, 11%, PPC 5, Green 3, NDP 2, No answer 18   

[Poirot]

Léger's poll had a sample of a thousand in Quebec so big enough to look at regional numbers with respectable margin of error.

Quebec numbers
Lib 34%, Con 23%, Bloc 20, Green 11, NDP 7, PPC 4

Conservative vote is much more male (28% among male, 18% female)
Green is much more female (8% male, 14% female)

By age the Liberals do best among over 55. Conservative vote is even by age group. Bloc does poorly among under 35, placing 5th while second among over 55.
Green and NDP do best among the young.
   
By language:

Francos
Lib 28%, Bloc 25%, Cons 23%, Green 13%, NDP 6%, PPC 4%
Non Francos
Lib 54%, Cons 24%, NDP 9%, Green 6%, Bloc 3%, PPC 3%

By region:

Montreal census Metro area: Lib 39, Bloc 20, Cons 18, Green 13, NDP 7, PPC 2

Quebec City census Metro area: Cons 35, Lib 28, Bloc 15, Green 11, PPC 7, NDP 3

Rest of Quebec: Lib 29, Cons 26, Bloc 22, Green 10, NDP 8, PPC 5

The Conservatives don't seem to be totally dominating Quebec City, it could be because of PPC support. NDP vote would have to be very concentrated to win more than a couple seats. Bloc's focus on environment isn't attracting young voters.   

[Poirot]

On the NDP's "save the furniture" campaign:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-low-budget-high-stakes-ndp-hopes-singhs-campaign-shift-isnt-too/

The end of public financing for parties increases the difference in financial resources between the two main parties and the others.

The article talks about an NDP spot coming. Is this a tv ad. Currently I see a Conservative ad running, they had others in the Spring. Liberals also ran a couple of months ago. I was reading an article on the camapign plans of the different parties this weekend and the Bloc was saying they don't have more money than last time, will focus on social media, with little videos and they have to make choices and it means they won't have tv ads. Not sure I understood well. No tv ads when the other main parties will probably saturate voters with their message on tv. 

[Poirot]

Abacus has a poll with 4,500 respondents.

Conservative 34
Liberal 33
NDP 17
Green 9
Bloc 4
People's 3

https://abacusdata.ca/a-tale-of-two-or-more-races/

Ontario Lib 37 CPC 33 NDP 19
Quebec Lib 35 CPC 23 BQ 18 NDP 12
BC CPC 31 Lib 29 NDP 22 Green 14   

[Poirot]

Slogans of political parties

CPC: It's time for you to get ahead / Plus. Pour vous. Dès maintenant.

LPC: Choose forward / Choisir d’avancer

NDP: In it for you / On se bat pour vous

Green: Not Left. Not Right. Forward Together / Ni à droite ni à gauche. Vers l’avant ensemble

BQ: Le Québec, c'est nous

PPC: Strong and free / Fort et libre

[Poirot]

No French slogan for PPC? Considering the only seat they can win is in Quebec that seems like an odd choice.

I've edited the post. I wasn't sure if it was their election slogan. I've read an article on slogan that said it's Strong and Free. It's on their merchandise. Their French line is Frort et libre.

Same thing with the Greens. Maybe the slogan is a party identification pn the website and not the electoral slogan. It's a bit long. I think the Greens are classified as progressives but the party says it's not left or right. They may want wider appeal, all the non ideological people. The article mentioned the slogan so I wrote it.

All the other parties have had announcements reported by media about their slogans for the election.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet Research is doing their daily tracker poll again this year. Looks like you get some access to riding polls and some other news items from iPolitics as well. Pricing seems rather steep at $220 plus HST for September and October coverage or $150 for just October. Not sure  whether official party is just for candidates/party organizers or if it's open to anyone that is a member of a registered political party; but that category is only $46 a month.

https://ipolitics.ca/premium-election-coverage/

Looks like there will be two weeks of campaign in Septemeber and three in October. The Quebec riding polls are usually released in public through their association with regional newspapers.

Mainstreet says they have riding polls coming during next week. The have four in Quebec: Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Louis-Hébert (in Quebec City) and Beloeil-Chambly. 

[Poirot]

both are more, straight forward, even aggressive or intense then the English slogans. The NDP french ad is also more forceful and bold. For Singh to have his hair out, turban off is very personal and intimate of a message.

General opinion on the French ad finds it a good ad but questions if it will change things much. With the ad and a Montreal town hall and meeting the mayor of Quebec City, Singh is having some coverage.

[Poirot]

TVA network will have a debate in French October 2 with four leaders. May and Bernier were not invited. Doesn't seem like Trudeau will go to Maclean's or Munk debates.   

At the moment the schedule and attendees looks like this

September 12 Maclean's and Citytv
Scheer, Singh, May

Munk debate on foreign policy October 1
Scheer, Singh, May

TVA October 2
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet

Leaders' debates commission (English) October 7
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet, May

Leaders' debates commission (French) October 10
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet, May

[Poirot]

Yves-François Blanchet is the Bloc Québécois leader.

The party is running canddiates only in Quebec. The party's goal should be to get at least 12 seats to have official status in Parliament, They haven't had that status in the last eigh years.   

[Poirot]

Yves-François Blanchet is the Bloc Québécois leader.

The party is running canddiates only in Quebec. The party's goal should be to get at least 12 seats to have official status in Parliament, They haven't had that status in the last eigh years.   

Did the Bloc ever run candidates outside of Quebec?

No,

[Poirot]

Abacus has a poll with 4,500 respondents.

Conservative 34
Liberal 33
NDP 17
Green 9
Bloc 4
People's 3

https://abacusdata.ca/a-tale-of-two-or-more-races/

Ontario Lib 37 CPC 33 NDP 19 Green 9
Quebec Lib 35 CPC 23 BQ 18 NDP 12
BC CPC 31 Lib 29 NDP 22 Green 14  

On twitter there is data for Ontario subregions

Toronto: LPC 44 CPC 29 NDP 15 Green 8
GTHA postal code L : LPC 37 CPC 35 NDP 19 Green 7
East: LPC 41 CPC 24 NDP 21 Green 8
SW: LPC 29, CPC 40 NDP 17 Green 11
North (sample of 64): LPC 33 CPC 23 NDP 24 Green 17  

[Poirot]

Abacus has a poll with 4,500 respondents.

Conservative 34
Liberal 33
NDP 17
Green 9
Bloc 4
People's 3

https://abacusdata.ca/a-tale-of-two-or-more-races/

Ontario Lib 37 CPC 33 NDP 19
Quebec Lib 35 CPC 23 BQ 18 NDP 12
BC CPC 31 Lib 29 NDP 22 Green 14  

On twitter there is data for Ontario subregions

Toronto: LPC 44 CPC 29 NDP 15
GTHA postal code L : LPC 37 CPC 35 NDP 19
East: LPC 41 CPC 24 NDP 21
SW: LPC 29, CPC 40 NDP 17
North (sample of 64): LPC 33 CPC 23 NDP 24 Green 17  

Why is Green only mentioned for the North?
Anyway, I think Angus will lose his seat to the Liberal candidate (same goes for Hughes in AMK).

Because when I tries to copy the image from twitter it seemed big on the post. I was afraid it would cause trouble in format for some. So I decided to enter the numbers myself and was lazy, wanted to save some transcript by skipping the Green since it was around 10% everywhere but the North. I will edit and put the Green numbers in my original post. I will try to include the original twitter post here: (I'll remove it if it causes formatting trouble for people)

[Poirot]

Mainstreet is out today and has the NDP at only 8.4% federally.

Nanos today has NDP support at 16.6% - go figure

It's strange how some polling firms differe so much for NDP. It's double / half the support. Margin of error for Mainstreet is 2.3% so 10.7% maximum.

Mainstreet 6-8 September, 1876 people, margin 2.3%

LPC⁩ 37.5%
⁦CPC⁩ 34%
⁦Green⁩ 10.8%
⁦NDP⁩ 8.4%
PPC⁩ 4.6%
⁦Bloc⁩ 3.6%

Some partial regional numbers found in Le Soleil newspaper so public.
https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/sondage-mainstreet-legere-avance-liberale-0c5a16de8d2878b84871813a4a537e60⁦

Ontario: PLC 45% CPC 30% Green 10.1 NDP 7.5 PPC 5.4
Quebec: LPC 40% CPC 21% Bloc 16% Green 9.6 NDP 8.8 PPC 4.1
BC: CPC 37% LPC 25% Green 18% NDP 13% PPC 5.1

Conservative leads Alberta and Prairies by more than 25%
NDP 4th in Ontario and BC and 5th in Quebec
The analyst says Liberals gained at the expense of NDP in Ontario and Bloc in Quebec since last month.

Editing my post because there is a link to Mainstreet full results
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/trudeau-liberals-open-up-lead-lpc-38-cpc-34-ndp-8-green-11/

So NDP does worse in Ontario than Quebec and with the margin of error ahead of PPC in Ontario...

[Poirot]

The Rhinoceros party is running a Maxime Bernier in Beauce against maxime Bernier. Its slogan is Don't take a chance, vote for the two.

The party promises to shorten winter by limiting December and January to 28 days, open fiscal haven in all provinces, bring back magnetic pole to Canada, give new name and new birth date to victims of identity theft, force auto makes to bring more green cars to market: forest green, pale green, khaki green and fluo green. 

[Poirot]

Four Mainstreet riding polls in Quebec. Their Quebec province numbers were LPC 40, CPC 21, BQ 16 and the riding polls as expected with numbers like that show Liberals way ahead.


Trois-Rivières (September 3, 837 people, margin 3.36%)
https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/actualites/sondage-mainstreet-les-liberaux-en-avance-dans-trois-rivieres-e953766c147884e402a0ad87993eb365

LPC 35.9%, CPC 28.2%, BQ 20.2%, Green 5.9%, NDP 5.3%, PPC 2.6%

Scheer starts his campaign in Trois-Rivières, his candidate is the former mayor and a prime target for the party in Quebec. The riding poll doesn't mention local candidates names so notoriety could bring more support. NDP incumbent, between the Conservatives trying to expand territory coming from the east (Quebec City area) and Liberals exapnding from Montreal (west).


Beloeil-Chambly (September 3, 825 people, margin
https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/sondage-mainstreet-pari-risque-pour-blanchet-dans-beloeil-chambly-videos-e3590acd0f9d870eaeaa034a810c5e35
 
LPC 34,6%, BQ 26,1%, CPC 15,2%, Green 9,4%, NDP 8,4%, PPC 5%

Bloc leader chose to run here. NDP won last election a close three way race. The Bloc was third.with 27% so Bloc is stable while Lib and Con up 5%. In the Greater Montreal area along the Richelieu river.  


Louis-Hébert (Sept 3, 864 people, margin 3.33%)
https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/sondage-mainstreet-avance-confortable-pour-lightbound-dans-louis-hebert-25e7132859dbebac7349eed7b06055a4

LPC 39.6%, CPC 19,2%, BQ 18,7%, Green 8,2%, PPC 7%, NDP 5%

This is held by the Liberals in Quebec City but has elected different parties in last elections. Looks like changing pattern and electing an incumbent, I think Léger had CPC leading 35-28 in Quebec City so it's another sign Liberals could at least hold their seats in Quebec City. Still the CPC number is lower than last election. Pollster points to difference is in the PPC number. Maybe the Liberal lead is not as large. In August the government confirmed federal financing for the tramway transit project and studying plan to buy back the old bridge to solve the maintenance issue, both directly affecting the riding.


Sherbrooke (September 3, 850 people, margin 3.36)
https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/politique/le-plc-demarre-loin-devant-dans-sherbrooke-video-1574ab606b1f0f3100449f434c1cde63

LPC 43.8%, BQ 18%, CPC 13,3%, NDP 12%, Green 7,1%, PPC 2,2%

Pollster says incumbement NDP is appreciated but suffering from party and leader performance. The local candidates are not in the pollster questionnaire so he could do better than that. Singh is expected to come here in the weekend to present about his Quebec platform. The provincial riding of Sherbrooke elected Québec Solidaire. There is a university. Might explain the better result for the NDP here than the other riding polls.      

[Poirot]

Mainstreet's new poll done September 11 to 13 has the PLC and CPC tied at 36% because of difference in Quebec numbers. Don't see a report on the pollster's website but Quebec numbers are in Le Soleil. The LPC had a lead of 19% in Quebec but 8,2% in this one.

LPC 33%, CPC 24,8%, BQ 18,6%, Green 9,5%, NDP 7,9%.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/la-laicite-fait-mal-aux-liberaux-au-quebec-selon-un-sondage-mainstreet-1403d1a58a79e92e698dffff188b5565
Pollster thinks the issue of federal intervention in court challenge of Quebec's bill 21 (secular / religious symbol) is hurting Liberal support. This was Mainstreet last poll numbers:    

Mainstreet 6-8 September, 1876 people, margin 2.3%

LPC⁩ 37.5%
⁦CPC⁩ 34%
⁦Green⁩ 10.8%
⁦NDP⁩ 8.4%
PPC⁩ 4.6%
⁦Bloc⁩ 3.6%

Some partial regional numbers found in Le Soleil newspaper so public.
https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/sondage-mainstreet-legere-avance-liberale-0c5a16de8d2878b84871813a4a537e60⁦

Ontario: PLC 45% CPC 30% Green 10.1 NDP 7.5 PPC 5.4
Quebec: LPC 40% CPC 21% Bloc 16% Green 9.6 NDP 8.8 PPC 4.1
BC: CPC 37% LPC 25% Green 18% NDP 13% PPC 5.1

So in Quebec LPC down 7%, CPC up about 4 and Bloc up about 3. Let's see if other pollsters find the same thing to know if there is movement. Mainstreet showed a larger lead compared to others, so could also be getting more near the average or a temporary thing.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet riding poll for Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques.

BQ 29. LPC 25, CPC 18, NDP 15, Green 6, PPC 2

Margin of error is 4%. Bloc has a big lead with younger voters which is starnge since it usually doesn't do well with that age group.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/sondage-mainstreet-legere-avance-du-bloc-a-rimouski-b8258222c1c92c6ebf93dbbbd8a64131

The mayor of Rimouski has said people should for for the candidate from the party most likely to win because it is easier to get projects realised when you have a voice in government.

Léger had a poll recently showing the Bloc first in a three way race in the Rest of Quebec (not Montreal area or Quebec City) so the riding poll would confirm this, the Bloc can be competitive in some areas.