Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Poirot]

Radio-Canada is reporting on Quebec farmers becoming party members to save supply management in reaction to Bernier's policy. Scheer and Blaney have attended dairy farmers meetings.

Seems to be in the regions of Quebec City, Chaudière-Applaches, Estrie, and Montérégie. Estimation from various camps is over 2.000 farmers will have joined.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1020973/la-mobilisation-des-agriculteurs-quebecois-coutera-t-elle-la-victoire-a-maxime-bernier

The party has 5,500 members in the province. And from the Montreal Gazette

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I'm cautious on the influence of people who are not interested in a party who join to vote against someone. Maybe they are very motivated. Something to watch for when analyzing the results by riding. They should vote for someone unexpected, say Trost, so their vote is noticeable and stand out. I had heard the farmers union in Chaudière-Appalaches was trying to campaign against Bernier but it would be more effective if they are spread out in regions with low membership.
   

[Poirot]

There have always been suspicious tactics in leadership races. Membership from dead people, homeless people, paying for people. Seems requiring payment isn't fulll proof with prepaid credit cards.   

Deltell endorses O'Toole.

Is this due to the increasing realization that Andrew Scheer can't actually hold a conversation in French?

I think I've written here that if this were 'normal' times Erin O'Toole would win the leadership because he's the closest to ticking all the boxes.  However, despite that, he clearly doesn't seem to have caught on among Conservative Party members.

From what I have read Scheer could be just above O'Toole at being more at ease in French. I don't think language was a factor.

Deltell cited O'Toole military past has a big advantage in his eyes. (maybe Deltell values this because his father was in the French military).

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O'Toole would also tick the box of being from the eastern part of Canada.

[Poirot]

O'Toole has now more support among MPs than Scheer. It doesn't seem to make much difference so far.

[Poirot]

Maclean's had an article on Bernier. Instead of a post-leadership bounce, Bernier could see a post-leadership dip in polls.

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http://www.macleans.ca/politics/how-mad-max-bernier-went-from-comic-relief-to-tory-front-runner/

Bernier was endorsed by 7 Wildrose and 1 PC Alberta MLAs.

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2017/04/11/bernier-in-edmonton-racks-up-alberta-mla-endorsements-in-conservative-leadership-race

His goal is to win 40 seats in Quebec. I used an election results simulator for the last election to get a rough idea. With 35% for the Lib and Con in Quebec (basically stability for one party and double its vote share for the other) and the other two main parties at 15%. Bernier doesn't meet its goal. He would have 33 seats and the Libs 44.

With something like 35% Lib, 30% Con and 15% for the other two, it's 58 seats to 19. Still a major increase in vote share but only a few more seats. 

[Poirot]

Mainstreet last weekly tracker poll had Scheer taking second place in front of Bernier on first preference. The pollster also said O'Leary gained on first preference but was losing seconds.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/04/26/cpc-poll-oleary-still-leading-scheer-up-bernier-falls-behind/

[Poirot]

The last Quebec MP able to endorse went to O'Toole.

Abacus poll asking if people would vote for Trudeau or various Conservative candidates.
http://abacusdata.ca/was-kevin-oleary-the-conservative-partys-best-hope-to-beat-trudeau-data-suggests-he-wasnt/

There is not a big difference between the seven leadership candidates. They are all in the 30s with 4% separating the first to the last. Chong scored best at 37%, followed by Scheer and O'Leary. Bernier scored the lowest.

There is also a measure on attracting voters who did not vote CPC in 2015 and losing 2015 CPC voters. O'Leary is (was) the person attracting the most non-CPC voter but he lost even more of the 2015 CPC voter. Bernier wins and loses the same number. Scheer does the best win a net gain, losing the least of the 2015 CPC voter. 

[Poirot]

Members have started voting and I've been waiting for some electability poll.
The Friends of supply management has one. Probably a little biased. It was done by Angus Reid forum, 824 people in Quebec. Don't have the wording of the question. Margin error 3.4%
With Bernier leader, Lib 44%, NDP 21%, Bloc 17%, CPC 11%, Green 4% 

[Poirot]

That article on the poll says Bernier is in the top preferences of the other candidates.

Fundraising numbers from the first quarter of 2017. Bernier and O'Leary with over $1 million. Then Leitch $ 536 K.

There is a graph with total fundraising. Bernier over $ 2 million. Leitch $1.3 million, Scheer and Chong about 725 K.
 
http://ipolitics.ca/2017/05/01/bernier-out-fundraised-oleary-raitt-raised-less-than-lemieux/

[Poirot]

Even though the leader is elected by points from riding results it is interesting to have the number of members by province.

Ontario: 114,508
Alberta: 59,448
B.C.: 34,686
Quebec: 16,412
Saskatchewan: 12,966
Manitoba: 9,243   
Nova Scotia: 4,692
New Brunswick: 3,674
P.E.I.: 1,188
N.L.: 1,194
Yukon: 645     
N.W.T.: 302
Nunavut: 52       

Total: 259,010

[Poirot]

Is the Conservative party going to keep its leader if the result of the next election is again a Liberal majority government ? I'm wondering if the next leader is there at least for the medium term or needs a good result in two years.

[Poirot]

I was asking about keeping leader after next election if there is an advantage in choosing a younger leader for the medium term and get more time to be well known and if there is a chance bigger names who chose not to run this time could push out a defeated leader.

Nanos asked Canadians which candidate has the best chance to defeat Trudeau.
Bernier leads with 19.6%
Chong is second with 7.4%
Raitt third with 3.8%
Scheer 3.3%, O'Toole 3%

Unsure was the most common answer with 37.1% followed by None can defeat Trudeau 20.2%

https://twitter.com/niknanos/status/862065565556518912/photo/1

[Poirot]

I Bernier is the next CPC leader, the party can say goodbye to ever winning seats in Atlantic Canada again...his pledge to eliminate the equalization program would instantly bankrupt all four Atlantic provinces and would be a 3rd, 4th and 5th rail!!!

I don't think he wants to totally eliminate equalization. He finds it unfair, call it a poverty trap. He would study the formula. Seems like code word for reduce the amount given out.

I think he wants to eliminate the regional economic agency, probably it is part of eliminate corporate subsidy.

Don't know if the party will automatically accept all policies of the new leader or resist some.

[Poirot]

Bernier wants to offer a clear contrast to Trudeau. I feel the contrast is too big and will make attacks easier. Maybe libertarianism is popular among younger generation and the middle class will welcome tax cuts and people will not mind a smaller role for the federal government. Not sure Harper would have been more popular doing less with government. If Harper was described as an ideologue, Bernier is Harper on streroids!

[Poirot]

A long profile on Bernier in L'actualité magazine.
http://lactualite.com/politique/2017/05/11/peut-il-battre-trudeau/

There are a few stories that show his ideology and why some say he is not a team player.

After he promised to end the "socialist cartel" in agriculture he sent an email to other MPs saying they are hypocrits if they persist to defend supply management at the same time as free competition.

In 2010 he refused to wear a Nordiques jersey for a photo op at a caucus meeting with the other Quebec MPs because he was against a possible federal contribution to built a new arena.

In 2012 the NDP proposed a law to add bilingualism at hiring in the criteria for parliamentary officers. The minister for official languages said it was not necessary. Bernier declared to journalists it was a very good proposal and will support it. In Cabinet Bernier told Harper if he had not nominated a uniligual auditor general, Bernier would not had to make the statement. There was silence around the table. At the end the government supported the law.

Opponents say Bernier is rigid ideologically and a party leader needs adaptablity. bernier thinks his success is coherence with his principles.

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Many Conservatives feel they have spend a decade in power making compromises with Harper. What is his legacy? The state is as big as it was.

Bernier's adviser is a man who created a libertarian webzine 20 years ago nad they have met working at the right wing think tank Montreal economic institute. (I know someone who knew him so useful playing six degrees of separation)

Bernier is inspired by economists Bastiat, Hayek and von Mises for a minimalist state and more individual freedom. His political model: Thatcher and Ron Paul.

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He is not going to be a Trudeau light or Harper light. The dictinction will be real clear to voters.

On deficits Bernier is even against the Haper government. If there is a recession he will not have a deficit like harper did. In 2018 there was a big battle in caucus between the purists like Bernier who don't want deficits and the pragmatists who wanted to stimulate the economy and save the minority government. Bernier rallied the decision because there was a plan to quickly return to balance budget. If he is PM, there will be no deficits even in time of recession.

An economist says a promise like cutting $30 billion in public spending to give tax cuts could be difficult to make since half of government spending is transfer to citizens of governments.

Take power from government to give to citizens could please. Bernier says he has to be careful not to be painted a extreme right on economic issues. Canadians don't know what is a libertarian.       

[Poirot]

Bernier has 79% chance of winning according to Tooclosetocall.
http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2017/05/last-update-to-cpc-leadership.html

Voting intentions in his model comes from the Mainstreet poll.

Mainstreet: Bernier has a 85% chance of winning.

What numbers / results will you be watching?
According to Mainstreet the top three ranks seem to be set. The 4th spot could be interesting, if I attribute the correct colour on the chart, it could be between Chong and Lemieux.
The prediction for points by region has Leitch third in Quebec. I am interested also of the Scheer result  in Chaudière-Appalaches where dairy farmers and some MPs are not supporting the well known regional candidate.

I heard on CPAC Marc Emery (prince of pot) say he would like to run with Bernier as leader.

[Poirot]

I don't think I will win the prediction game!

O'Leary 41
Bernier 32.5
Scheer 26.5

O'Leary 51
Bernier 49

The membership in Beauce went from 102 to 1519. With 16,412 members in Quebec that means Beauce riding counts for 9.25% of all members in the province.

[Poirot]

In news today, the farmer organizing against Bernier in Beauce said he would be lucky to get 40%. (He got more but not a big majority) I thought it was wishful thinking. But there was an unnamed conservative strategist who said Beauce result was too close to call.

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[Poirot]

The farmers protest vote is delivering good for Scheer. He lead Blaney in his own Bellechasse-Lévis riding 49-36. He also leads in Lévis-Lotbinière where the MP supports Bernier but doesn't agree on his position on supply management. Meanwhile in Deltell's riding of Louis Saint-Laurent, Bernier easily wins.

[Poirot]

That was a lot more exciting than I thought. I want my money back from pollster and forecast who made me believe Bernier had a big lead. Maybe some underestimation of social conservative vote and anti-Bernier rural Quebec vote.

Scheer won Beauce

Scheer 51.11%
Bernier 48.89%

[Poirot]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

Grits are very pleased. Scheer has regularly been described as a "nicer Stephen Harper."

Yes Scheer is more status quo and not a personal threat but Liberals would have been pleased with Bernier if he was going to continue with his promises of privatizing and abolishing institutions, changes to health care funding, "former separatist". Bernier managed to mobilize people in his own region to block him. I imagine the Liberals could show mobilize voters against Bernier's big changes and the shrinking of the state.  

[Poirot]

I guess this explains the Trost score in Brossard- Saint-Lambert. Multiethnic with a big chinese community. Before being eliminated Trost was first with 44% to Bernier 30%. Final round result: Bernier 57%   

[Poirot]

MP Bernard Généreux, president of Quebec caucus had said he would not endorse Bernier because of supply management policy and would stay neutral. Now he says his vote went to Raitt, she was his first preference.

Steven Blaney is satisfied for the survival of the agricultural model. He was not first in his riding and sees an intelligent strategic vote to block Bernier. Saw a polarization at the end. The group in support of supply management instruction was to vote for Scheer. Blaney's second preference vote went to Leitch.

Many are blaming the farmers or farmers union for Bernier's loss. MP Jacques Gourde, Bernier's campaign co-chairman estimates the supply management issue cost Bernier 30% of the member's vote in the province for a loss of 2500 points in Quebec and about 2000 in Ontario. That issue made the difference. It became a referendum on supply management he said.

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http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201705/27/01-5102012-direction-du-parti-conservateur-bernier-coule-par-la-gestion-de-loffre.php

Former mayor of Bernier's hometown blames Quebecers and strong farmer's union lobby.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201705/28/01-5102092-defaite-de-bernier-la-faute-aux-quebecois-et-a-lupa.php

[Poirot]

How is this estimate of votes per riding accurate. Should I trust this.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pDnsG7p45gqNHUvswmjJmMVtgIxmVSoxprLWd9kMV-w/edit#gid=0

[Poirot]

From a CPAC webpage. Scheer's 10 worst riding results (in points) were in Quebec and 7 of his 10 best results were in Quebec.
http://www.cpac.ca/en/conservative-leadership-results/

Scheer won the most points in 175 ridings, while Bernier won 158.

Five ridings were an exact 50-50 tie: Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke, B.C., Newmarket–Aurora, Ont., Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou, Que., Montarville, Que., and Repentigny, Que.


SUPPORT FOR SCHEER

Scheer’s top 10 ridings in the final round:

Regina–Qu’Appelle, SK   89.54
Richmond–Arthabaska, QC   89.06
Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques, QC   87.65
Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC   85.90
Lac-Saint-Jean, QC   82.17
Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup, QC   82.13
Chilliwack–Hope, BC   81.64
Shefford, QC   81.25
Egmont, PEI   81.00
Mégantic–L’Érable, QC   80.37
 

Scheer’s bottom 10 results:

Manicouagan, QC   12.12
Beauport–Limoilou, QC   13.40
Bourassa, QC   14.29
Thérèse-De Blainville, QC   15.09
Alfred-Pellan, QC   15.79
Gatineau, QC   16.26
Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC   16.46
Honoré-Mercier, QC   17.65
Longueuil–Saint-Hubert, QC   20.00
Terrebonne, QC   20.00