Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Poirot]

Any timeframe on PQ and ON?

The new deadline is now February 21. I hope they don't take until the last day.

I have seen this in a Hill Times article.
have been granted a two-month extension on the deadline for their reports—both reports are now due by Feb. 21, 2013

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2013/01/28/some-mps-concerned-about-electoral-boundary-commissions%E2%80%99-criteria-says-tory-mp/33478

[Poirot]

I said I hope they don't wait until the last day because I thought we would get all reports by Christmas and I'm impatient to see the reports.

I want the commissions to do their jobs and not rush things. I don't think the Quebec commission put enough care on the first draft proposal and that leaves it having to do more work for the report after hearings. I like how Ontario even came back for hearings after some changes to get people's input.

[Poirot]

In addition, they pay in the eastern part of the province. Riviere-du-Loup--Montmagny, while maintained, adds the non-Beauce part of the MRC of Les Etchemins and they lose it to the Conservatives by about 1200.

This could potentially be changed. MRC Les Etchemins are not happy to be put with a longer riding with Rivière-du-Loup. They wish to stay with Bellechasse. They want their MP Blaney to bring the objection to the committee.

I think this change was made because of numbers when they rearrange the eastern ridings due to opposition. The effect of this leaves people involved in the last version change no chance to speak.

I've estimated 10,000 people from MRC Les Etchemins will be transferred to Montmagny-Rivière-du-Loup in a riding of 107,350. Minus ten thousand, the riding would be under the average but not by much.

Bellechasse-Lévis is already at 102,288. With an extra 10,000, it would be above the 10% variance they try to follow. I think it would become the biggest riding in population in the province.

Beauce is already full so that leaves Lévis-Lotbinière (101,416) that could take a few thousands from Bellechasse-Lévis but I'm not sure if it is easy to take another part of Lévis without breaking city districts. And if population growth comes from Lévis it makes sense to keep the Lévis ridings closer to 100,000 than 110,000.

[Poirot]

I have a problem with two riding names in the Montreal area.

The final report names a riding Saint-Léonard-Villeray. It is the Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel riding with minor changes. I don't get why they changed the name because Saint-Michel seems much more appropriate to me than Villeray. I consider Villeray to be in Papineau riding and no part is in the Saint-Léonard riding. Villeray is in the borough name but the part in the Saint-Léonard riding is Saint-Michel. That is from my understanding of Montreal neighbourhoods anyway.

I also have a problem with the Vimy riding. I am still trying to figure out what is the link of Vimy to the geographic area of that riding. I'm not saying where it is located yet, you still have time to guess.

It is so not obvious why they chose that name, the commission writes it requires an elaborate explanation.

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Nice history lesson but it fails to explain why put that name in that place, how the name describes the location. It seems it could have been any riding but they chose this one.

The commission probably succumbed to the veterans lobby. If the suggestion was made at a hearing in Montreal, why not name a Montreal riding Vimy instead of one in Laval. Next time you hear Vimy, you are supposed to think of the Laval area of Laval-des-Rapides and Saint-Martin.         

[Poirot]

Oh God Agreed, the naming convention chosen is a huge improvement. Looks like they went with 18 instead of 19 ridings on the island of Montreal too, saved a rural riding? Can anyone explain to me the new riding Lemoyne? its a very odd shaped thin stretch of a riding... looks like leftovers to me.

Lemoyne is thin and long, in reality a little less than it looks because the part east (or south) of highway 30 is not a residential area but it is still long.

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/qc/now/reports/Longueuil.pdf

It starts near the river at the subway station, takes a part of Longueuil (the original city of Longueuil), a part of Saint-Hubert (now a borough of new city of Longueuil) and Greenfield Park (now a borough) where it is printed Lemoyne on the map, and then on the other side of Greenfield Park an elongated part of Saint-Hubert. The long straight line division between Lemoyne on one side and the ridings of Longueuil and Montarville follows a rail track (and street). It is entirely in the new city of Longueuil but includes former towns. Lemoyne was the name of a small town that is now part of the Vieux-Longueuil borough I think, too small to even exist as a borough.

I would prefer if there was more of a square shape than a narrow territory. Once they decided  Saint-Lambert would not longer share a riding with the city of Longueuil and also remove the half of Boucherville that shared another riding with Longueuil, they were left with dividing Longueuil which has a population of 231,000. Or they already planned to put a part of Longueuil (of the Saint-Hubert borough) in Montarville to get close to the provincial quotient.
Then the task is diffcult to split the remaining 210,000 people in Longueuil in two.

Road 116 separates the Vieux-Longueuil borough on one side and Saint-Hubert and Greenfield Park borough on the other side (not perfect division like Saint-Hubert airport is on the Vieux-Longueuil side but a general rule). There are two road links that cross over, Tascherau blvd (above the E of Lemoyne on the map) and chemin Chambly or Cousineau blvd (road 112 on the map). The latter makes the link for the part of Saint-Hubert that is in the Longueuil riding. I don't know if they could do something by trading that Saint-Hubert borough bloc in Longueuil for part of Vieux-Longueuil borough in Lemoyne riding.

The Montreal south shore report is a near copy of the Liberal party proposal. You can compare maps.
https://quebec.liberal.ca/files/2012/10/Carte.pdf
They even suggested Lemoyne for their long thin riding.
https://quebec.liberal.ca/files/2012/10/M%C3%A9moire-Rive-Sud-v1.pdf

I don't know what the other parties proposed (or if they had a regional Montreal south shore proposal) but it looks like the Commission took it. The difference in the final report from the Liberal proposal is McMasterville is not in Montarville riding but I imagine the Liberal proposal had this because the Commission's first proposal put McMasterville in Montarville.

Brossard-Saint-Lambert is probably a good bet for the President of the Liberal party of Canada for Quebec to get elected back to the House.   


       

[Poirot]

I don't know if they could do something by trading that Saint-Hubert borough bloc in Longueuil for part of Vieux-Longueuil borough in Lemoyne riding.

What do you think about this?

Longueuil - Alternative Map

I like it better than the Commission's final report. With your alternative Saint-Hubert borough is in two ridings instead of being put in three ridings. You prove there are alternatives in splitting Longueuil in a different and realist way than what they have done (or copied from a submission).

If they had put this first as the proposal, there could have been feedback on minor adjustments like the possibility of not making Saint-Hubert-Greenfield Park go all the way up: put some of the nothern part in Vieux-Longueuil riding and put the southeast corner of Vieux-Longueuil in Saint-Hubert-Greenfield Park.

I've started to try to see what I could do to change the elongated Lemoyne riding but I need to modify two more ridings that border the two Longueuil ones. And it would mean going back to the current situation of Boucherville being in two ridings. I'm not a mapper so it will be hard to explain in words.

[Poirot]

Gotta be a better way of dividing the south shore than that. Your Greenfield Park riding seems to divided by a freeway.

On the alternative map of Saint-Hubert-Greenfield Park, do you mean divided by freeway in the southeast part (the other side of highway where it seems to be mostly unbuilt area)

or crossing over the road up from the Park name of the riding name on the map? That is where chemin Chambly crosses (under) the road. On the north side it is Saint-Hubert airport and the first couple of streets are still in Saint-Hubert borough.

[Poirot]

The Longueuil option 3 is in the direction of what I was trying to do.

I cut the elongated Lemoyne a little more than on the map. I took out the 4 census tracts of Saint-Hubert borough that are southeast of Greenfield Park (16,552 people).  Then I push the northeast boundary of Lemoyne to chemin Chambly so the northern border of the riding would be a straight line instead of changing streets midway. I don't know exactly what population this represents since I can't just add the census tracts for that area, part of it is already in Lemoyne. I go with a rough estimate of 12,500. Total estimate 100,800 so in reality should be very near quotient.

The estimated 12,500 along Chemin Chambly are substracted from Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher at the bottom of the riding. In exchange I push the nothern riding more into Boucherville to Montbrun blvd instead of Montarville with the added area limit road 132 (not the river). That is three census tracts for 12,153. Longueuil-Pierre Boucher is around 99,000. Boucherville is still split but about three quarters is in this riding instead of half.

Verchères-Les Patriotes becomes smaller. It receives 2,624 people from the transfer of Saint-Mathieu-de-Beloeil (the commission does this to reduce the population in Chambly).  With my transfer of part of Boucherville I get a total of 94,826. If more people are needed, the little triangle south of Montarville, between the river and road 132 could be in Verchères- Les patriotes instead of Longueuil, the 132 road would a division between the two ridings and blvd Montbrun. The riding covers more territority and municipalities so I think it can be ok to have less people.

Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert riding has Saint-Basile, Saint-Bruno and a great part of Saint-Hubert. This riding gets the part of Saint-Hubert I retrieved from the Commission's proposal of Lemoyne. This should be 105,716. The only part of Saint-Hubert not in this riding is the corner between Greenfield Park and Longueuil, representing 17,499 in three census tracts.

I think the negative is Boucherville is still cut and shares a riding with Longueuil contrary to the the commission's proposal, but I have reservation on how they split up Longueuil.

We talked about Saint-Hubert airport being on the other side of Sir Wildfrid Laurier road and it occured to me that the space agency is adjacent to the airport.         

[Poirot]

Thank you for the numbers. The differences were not that large. Also thanks for the time you spent on making alternative scenario maps.

[Poirot]

The BC, Quebec and Saskatchewan Reports are out.

If the changes recommended by the House committee are adopted by the Quebec Commission, I think the ridings of Beauce, Mégantic L'érable, Lotbinière and Lévis-Bellechasse will be the same as the old ridings (no change). Mégantic-L'Érable would be 14.3% under quotient and Lévis-Bellechasse 10.9% over quotient.

The report also agrees to modify the name Avignon-Matane to Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia. (long name)

The House report puts more people in Vaudreuil. Instead of being 10.9% over quotient it becomes 13.3% over. Seems a bit big to me. Vaudreuil-Soulanges saw the second biggest growth for Quebec ridings between the last two census. If there is still growth this riding could be at 20% over already at the time of next election. 

[Poirot]

MP Maria Mourani will go to court about the redistricting of Ahunstic riding.

A neigbourhood is split in two, strong sense of community, and the commission should use Statscan numbers and not speculate on future growth of population.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/Montreal/2013/09/17/009-maria-mourani-ahunstic-circonscription-contestation.shtml

All the territory of Saint-Laurent-Cartierville riding not in Saint-Laurent borough was put in Ahunstic riding. Ahunstic would become too big so part of Ahunstic in the east was added to Bourassa.

Saint-Laurent ridign will now have the lowest population in all Montreal island ridings. In the commmision's report, they write:  we should note that the Saint-Laurent electoral district, on the Island of Montréal, received special treatment in light of the views expressed by numerous stakeholders that this borough was experiencing very strong demographic growth, and that we could reasonably expect this trend to continue in the years to come.

...convinced us that the demographic deficit that our proposed map reveals in Saint-Laurent would in all likelihood be temporary and, what is more, short-lived.

Saint-Laurent has a population within the 10% deviation from the provincial quotient. They
also published a quotient for the Montreal island ridings. That quotient is higher and Saint-Laurent is below 10% of that one and stand out has the only riding that is so much below the the others. 

Table 2 illustrates on this report's page shows this.
http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=qc&dir=now/reports&document=page5&lang=e

I think maybe the mistake by the commission is writing about giving a special treatment to take into account future growth. Ridings that are near +10% of quotient don't get to show numbers predicted for future population, like by the time the next map is adopted we will have 1,000 more people and be over 10% of quotient so our riding should be designed to be closer to quotient at the start. And suburban ridings with new housing developments are not automatically designed with less population because people will move in over the next ten years.   

[Poirot]

Masson-Angers and Buckhingham aren't in the Gatineau riding, they're in the Pontiac riding.

Currently, yes. Hmm. Mathieu Ravignat does have a riding office there, in Buckingham. Redistributed Pontiac has a notional NDP majority of 21.37%, while Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation has 21.75%. Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel had only a 15.31% NDP majority. I don't suppose Ravignat would prefer Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation. My point is, Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation is a good riding. New Mirabel has a notional NDP majority of 18.53%, but that would be shallow support. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation looks like a prize worth fighting over.

Since Argenteuil-La Petite Nation will include the eastern part of Gatineau, it could be a place to attract a candidate from a national union (or that could be the case in Hull riding since I think it will be open.)

Wilfred Day said the two riding office of Freeman are located in Argenteuil-La Petite Nation so it could be more familiar ground for her. In terms of electoral chances, if the Liberal party is the main opponent in Quebec, Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation is part in the Outaouais which historically has been a very strong Liberal region (and safe LPQ on the provincial scene).

If the Bloc is weak Mirabel could be easier for her to win against Liberals. The bigger threat in Mirabel might be the Bloc.   

[Poirot]

Not many changes, as expected. Some truly awful names though. Disappointed that no one had the balls to contest the Chomedey area riding being named "Vimy".

I emailed Laval MP's office to make sure he was aware of the proposed name because it was at after the stage of public input. I said I didn't see the link of the proposed name relating to the geographic area. I guess he didn't mind (or he is not a very good MP).

On some other name changes, Salaberry-Suroît seems redundant as previously stated because all the territory of the riding is located in Suroît.

I don't like Soulanges Vaudreuil (the new Vaudreuil riding). The MRC Vaudreuil-Soulanges is now in two ridings instead of one. It could be confusing to use the same two words for a new riding that is much smaller than the old one and is not all the MRC anymore like it used to be.

That was the two MPs of Beauhanois-Salaberry and Vaudreuil-Soulanges in committee suggesting names. I think they also proposed Vaudreuil-Soulanges Est and Salaberry- Soulanges Ouest, I guess they didn't want the Soulanges name to disappear.

[Poirot]

Ahunstic is in Montreal. The new Ahunstic-Cartierville becomes favorable to the Liberals. According to Le Devoir Maria Mourani is in contact with the Liberals and she could possibly run in 2015. It also says other ex-Bloc people could be interested. That would be used to show the party is attracting all kind of people, not just long time Liberals.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/397990/maria-mourani-regarde-vers-les-liberaux

I don't know if Mourani has been shopping at the NDP or at provincial parties also.