SNIP
Houston County isn't really suburban, is it? I thought Warner Robins was basically its own separate mini-metro focused on Robins Air Force Base. The military focus is what has made it historically Republican. Of course, it should be trending D anyway similar to other air force-focused cities such as Colorado Springs.
Oconee County is another one to watch for this trend alongside Columbia County, though.
I grew up here and moved back last year. HOCO has historically been a suburban part of Macon-metro, but we’re starting to overtake Macon as the dominant area. It’s also trending left for similar reasons as counties like Cobb and Gwinnett.
Something to keep an eye on in addition to obviously suburban Atlanta is the micropolitan areas around places like Macon and Augusta. It's flown a bit under the radar, but Democrats have made serious inroads in the Republican suburbs of these cities, notably Houston County and Columbia County. Watching tomorrow to see if Warnock can make Houston County a single digit affair and if he can hit 40% in Columbia County.
Counties like this have been sneaking up on Republicans for awhile. There are 6 in particular worth keeping an eye on in the coming years - if not because they will flip, just for the potential shifts in them - that all play a certain role in housing newer suburban/exurban college-educated types in a given metro.
Only 525k people among them (with Houston & Columbia comprising around 60% & Fayette being most of the rest), but an 11-point D shift in 4 years isn't nothing (the rest of the state combined only shifted 5 points by comparison):
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7f160c19-d55e-467e-8550-e25c29a902ed
I can't speak to the rest, but important to note that the three largest of these counties have booming diverse suburbs. Warner Robins is both a military town and a suburb, and that latter identifier put the community demographically in the position to elect it's first African American mayor last year. Fayette has the obvious spillover from Atlanta that seems poised to give Warnock the topline result tomorrow. Majority-minority Grovetown in Columbia grew so fast in the last two decades that the suburb is now demographically spilling over into unincorporated territory.
It's pretty incredible that those 6 combined (even taking out the smaller 3 doesn't change the overall swing; 11 points) have swung between 2016P & 2021RO only slightly less (0.8 points) than Paulding, Cherokee and Forsyth:
Fayette/Columbia/Houston: R+26.5 -> R+15.0
Paulding/Cherokee/Forsyth: R+47.1 -> R+34.8
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6b6c88e4-2262-4db5-86ef-076e2c3b5e00
I’m keeping a close eye on how HoCo votes tomorrow and if it continues it’s leftward trend. I’m eyeing a run for the Board of Education in ‘26 or the City Council in ‘25.
Our election of the first black mayor in our city’s history last year was encouraging, but that was likely due more to the overwhelming unpopularity of the predecessor she beat and the corrupt air about him than her own skills.
