Can Romney Still Win?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The Bain attacks are working. The polls show it. And they are focused all in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. The "Rust Belt" as they are so named, contains 54 electoral votes. And a majority of voters there really dont like Romney's work at Bain. And President Obama is leading in all of them, with Iowa either being tied or a slight Obama lead. So let's say Romney sweeps every swing state from New Hampshire to Nevada, except the Rust Belt states. (DOUBTFUL)

Obama 271 Romney 267
He's still short of 270. Voters have one for the most likable candidate ever since the 1930s, with the exception of Nixon in 68. It's gonna be hard for him to counteract people's negative perceptions of him. How can Romney win?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Nevada and New Hampshire going Republican, but not Ohio? Okay.

I mean Ohio and the rest of the Midwest are really where the Bain attacks are being run and having the most effect. I said its doubtful Romney sweeps everything but those states, but I was making a point that without them he can't win.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The Bain attacks are working. The polls show it.

Here are the last 7 polls tracking the race.

McClatchy/Marist           Obama +2
Rasmussen Tracking        Obama +1
Gallup Tracking                   Tie
Reuters/Ipsos              Obama +6
Wash Times/JZ Analytics   Romney +1
ABC News/Wash Post      Tie
Quinnipiac                        Obama +3

Average: Obama +1.5

The Bain attacks for the most part started in June. Here are the last 7 polls in May.

CNN/Opinion Research   5/29 - 5/31   Obama +3
ABC News/Wash Post   5/17 - 5/20   Obama +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   5/16 - 5/20   Obama +4
Pew Research   5/9 - 6/3                           Obama +7
Rasmussen Reports   5/14 - 5/16           Romney +1
Gallup   5/11 - 5/17                           Romney +1
FOX News   5/13 - 5/15                   Obama +7

Average: Obama +3.1

What polls are you referring to? A Priority USA focus group that showed people don't like Bain? The NBC Swingstate poll that surveyed about 150 people? I don't see how Obama losing 1.5 point since the attacks started cause you to conclude that the attacks worked and the race is over. All the pundits talked about in May was that Obama was done, now Romney is done. Despite the microanalyzing of every day to day political victory, this race has been very steady and very close for the last 3 months and will probably stay that way until November. As a side note, I live in PA and neither campaign is advertising at all. Crossroads had a big buy in May with ads all the time. Since then there have been few if any presidential political ads.

All the June polls show Obama up 2.4 points. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
You realize that most, if not all of those polling companies, with the exception of Gallup and Rasmussen have polled on whether the attacks are working.
Wall Street Journal/ABC News Poll
Question: Is Romney's work buying and restructuring companies before he went into politics a major reason you to (support) that candidate, a major reason you to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor in your vote?
                            NAT.     Toss Ups
Reason to support:    23            16
Reason to oppose:    24            32


Question: In his work as a corporate investor, do you think Romney did more to (create jobs) or more to (cut jobs) in the United States?
                                FEB.    JUL.
Did more to cut jobs:     34      48
Did more to create jobs: 48      34

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Wall Street Journal/ABC News Poll
Question: Is Romney's work buying and restructuring companies before he went into politics a major reason you to (support) that candidate, a major reason you to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor in your vote?
                            NAT.     Toss Ups
Reason to support:    23            16
Reason to oppose:    24            32

That same poll also showed Romney up by 14 with independents. Those that are in the bag for Obama love the attacks. And it probably makes them like Romney and his business record less. But if those 24 (or 32) percent were already going to vote for Obama, who cares. You only get one vote no matter if you are 51% for Obama or 100% for Obama. In the last three ABC/Wash Post polls Obama has gone from +7 to +3 to tie (April, May, July). If attacks like these fire up the base but cause Obama to lose by 14 with independents, I'll take that come November.

Dude, the two most recent polls shows Obama leading by 6 and 7 points (Reuters/Ipsos & Pew.) And even so, national polls don't matter, a Presidential election is won state by state. And right now Obama is leading pretty comfortably in Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia. And thats 67 electoral votes. Face it, Romney's at best, only at a tie with the president in swing states. And the Bain attacks have contributed to it.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Just like what President Clinton said in my signature. This is why we love Republicans:
"The Thing I Like About Republicans; The Evidence Does Not Faze Them, They Are Not Bothered By All The Facts."- President William J. Clinton