National Tracking Poll Thread

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

It's really high time that pollsters like NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo, CNN, YouGov, etc. weigh in again on the national numbers. Basically all we've gotten since the debate are trackers and that Pew poll.

Agreed.

Well one of them have, and we're up 49-47 in the ABC/WaPo poll.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

RAND Poll (Obama +5.15)
Obama- 49.66% (+.1)
Romney-44.51% (-.53)

The Debate bounce has officially faded on RAND. Romney is back to his pre-debate levels of support. Just waiting on Rasmussen and Gallup.
Anyone know why RAND Polls aren't included in the RCP Average? It's not an Internet poll, and they seem to be including the IBD-TIPP Daily Tracker in their average. Seems pretty wierd to me.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

RAND Poll
Obama 48.54% (-.28)
Romney 45.89% (+.23)

Looks like a pretty good Romney sample was picked up last Thurseday.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

IBD/TIPP Poll O+2.6
Obama- 46.6%
Romney-44.0%

Monday night's final debate on foreign policy looms large for Mitt Romney, as Obama has opened up a 2.6-point lead over the GOP challenger.
One area where Obama has gained in recent days is among suburban voters, with whom he has a 7-point edge, up from a tie Thursday.
Obama has also drawn even among male voters, a group with which Romney previously held a slight edge.
Obama has also solidified his lead among those who describe themselves as working class.
Romney remains strong, however, with independents, holding a 10-point advantage with that swing voting bloc.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Yes NBC/WSJ poll released during MTP Sunday morning. I'm going to guess Obama +1. Last one was done right before Debate 1 and had Obama +3.

I'll predict a tie (which is what I think the race actually is right now too).

I predict Romney plus 1-2 or tie.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Washington Post/ABC has a daily tracking poll too now.

Obama 49
Romney 48

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

Romney gained 2 points since their last one:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/index.html

It's a tracking poll, so I'm not sure the methodology and sample size is the same as the national one. So it's kinda comparing apples to oranges.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

THE DEBATE BOUNCE HAS ARRIVED

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I think everyone might be jinxing it; watch Reuters and Wash Post show steady or bounce Romney. Was media coverage even good enough for Obama to get a bounce?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

THE DEBATE BOUNCE HAS ARRIVED

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I think everyone might be jinxing it; watch Reuters and Wash Post show steady or bounce Romney. Was media coverage even good enough for Obama to get a bounce?

This.  Two polls, Rassy and Gallup still show Romney ahead, Rassy by 4 and Gallup by 3.  Rassy is partisan, but they're still a valid pollster.  The Gallup poll yesterday showed Romney up by 5, so a debate "bounce" that still puts your opponent ahead in the poll, is something I would pass on.

And of course, Reuters says Romney is ahead 47-46 percent. But..... 3/4 of the interviews are pre-debate.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

WaPo/ABC poll is unchanged

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/24/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-wins-final-debate-romney-gains-supporters/

It also says Obama only leads on the "understands economic problems of people like you" question by 5 points, 50-45. Highly doubt it, as most other pollsters have him up on that by double digits.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

And to dispel doubts about their bias among Republicans, the WasPost/ABC Tracking Poll puts Romney up 3.
Obama- 47%(-1)
Romney-50%(+1)

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Romney is at his highest level yet in the Ras swing state tracking poll +6.  Doubtful Romney loses Ohio...

Except for the fact that he's never lead in a poll in Ohio, or Nevada for that matter.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

IBD/TIPP Poll Obama +1.3
Obama 45.4 (-1.2)
Romney 44.1 (-.4)

This could be an understatement of Obama's support.
Obama leads by only 10 among those 18-44, 50-40.  He also only gets 84 percent of the black vote. He's all but guaranteed to get at least 92% of the vote among that demographic, which would translate to about another percentage point or two of support for the President.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

What you are missing is that Bloomberg will help in South Florida, and likely with the suburban moderates in NOVA and Denver as well.

He should also help with Independents and Moderates in New Hampshire too.