Doesn't this still leave room for discussion of the ideological vote distribution?
What are your numbers for how the 2012 moderate vote splits between Obama and Romney?
Yeah, it definitely will just shift over to being the same discussion, just with new substance, so long as everyone is wise enough to read what King has put together here. But those numbers should be much easier to track and speculate on and shift accordingly compared to the highly fickle and unclear Party IDs.
Yup this changes nothing really. Same discussion, now only speculating on moderates instead of independents. It's fancy math-art that really doesn't add much to the discussion although you seem to be peddling this pretty forcefully judging by your links to this thread appearing all over.
For the record, regarding the polling that took place in Alberta in 2012 for our election, and let me say this clearly
no amount of reasonable adjustments or corrections to the polling could have predicted the results. None. At all. Adjusting for ideology, party affiliation, demographic turnout, nothing could have predicted the election day results. To match polling with results required taking the highest polling percentage of undecided voters (around 20% although polling ranges were from 3 to 20) and then giving over 80% of those undecided to one party, which no reputable polling firm would do in their right mind.
So bash your heads against the wall with all this nonsense. If anything enthusiasm to vote in my opinion is perhaps the most useful, as I believe it allows for an accurate snapshot of voters. I know many people that give random or deliberately inaccurate information to pollsters and then vote differently or not at all. /endrant