UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[Zanas]

I think what you meant to write was that Jim Dobbin (Labour MP for Heywood & Middleton since 1997) has died.

Ding dong, eh, Al ?

[Zanas]

Survation poll for the Scum of Heywood & Middleton:

Labour 50, UKIP 31, Con 13, LDem 4

You know something is off when Al is posting constituency polling data...

[Zanas]

I don't know the specifics of the constituency, but from the figures of the poll only, 40-31-25 is something with room for any of the three to win if they give it a shot, isn't it ?

[Zanas]

Obviously when a party goes from 0% to 28% - some of that support will come from each of the older parties - but again - if you are the Labour Party you have to drool at the thought of all those Lab/Tory marginals where if UKIP goes from 0% to - say - 15% - 3 or 4 points will come from Labour while 10-11 will come from the Tories - all in all the rise of Ukip is good news for Labour in that for the most part it splits the rightwing vote....and in the longterm if the rightwing vote in the UK gets split between the established right (ie: Tories) and the populist, eurosceptic right (ie: UKIP) - its a boon to the Labour party.

Mitterrand tried that thinking here back in the 1980s. Now Hollande is not amused...