Yes; it was close in 2012, and Romney even led the polls there early on. Bush only lost it by a few thousand votes in 2004, and much of that was probably a favorite son effect of Kerry being from Massachusetts. Plus, it has somewhat of a libertarian streak and a very strong anti-tax sentiment, which could help the GOP under the right circumstances. It takes far more than three elections to say that a state is red or blue.
the GOP appears to be the favorite to win the governorship in 2016.
Says who? It will be close, no matter which party wins.