Third Term Elections if no 22nd amendment

[Oldiesfreak1854]

for the 2008 scenario, Bush would have carried AR, LA, TN, and WV. There's enough voters there who would vote for him (Bush) to "stop the black!" to deliver those states.

Not true.  Those states were trending GOP before Obama, and swung to the right in 2008 and 2012 because of Democrats' perceived hostility to coal.  Grimes' relatively weak performance in eastern Kentucky is evidence of that.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

1960

Pres. Dwight D. Eisenhower (R-PA)/Vice Pres. Richard Nixon (R-CA): 416
Sen. John F. Kennedy (D-MA)/Sen. Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX): 113
Unpledged Democratic Electors: 8

1988

Pres. Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Vice Pres. George HW Bush (R-TX): 452
Gov. Michael Dukakis (D-MA)/Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX): 86

2000

Pres. Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Vice Pres. Al Gore: 430
Gov. George W. Bush (R-TX)/Fmr. Rep. Dick Cheney (R-WY): 108

2008

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE): 449
Pres. George W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice Pres. Dick Cheney: 82

[Oldiesfreak1854]

In 2008, Bush would have carried TN, AR, LA and GA. Possibly MT, MO ,AZ and NC as well. I dont see how in the world you give WV to Obama.

Bush would have run a better campaign than McCain did.


In 2000, I am not certain that Clinton would have carried FL. Bush in 2000 actually did proportionally worse with Jewish voters than Dole did in 1996 (proportionaly meaning relative to the improvement in the overall popular vote). Leibermann did make a difference in FL for Gore.

Clinton carried AR, LA, and WV twice, and GA once.  Obama probably would've beaten Bush in Georgia due to his strength with black and a significant number of white turning against Bush.  In 2008, Bush was so unpopular that his job approval was underwater in all but two or three states (all in the Mountain West).  And Clinton would've carried FL in 2000, because he was so massively popular that he would've taken almost any state that could conceivably be close.