The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Oldiesfreak1854]

No more votes out in DeSoto County and McDaniel's at 49.9%.

Rankin will be decisive, but don't underestimate the importance of the remaining vote in Warren, Pontotoc, Lafayette, and Oktibbeha County. 

Yes, Cochran should do well in Warren.

The current numbers have McDaniel slightly leading there.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Heart pounding. Stomach in knots.

Childers vs. McDaniel would be extremely entertaining, but SUCH a huge downside if things don't go our way. I just wanted Cochran to win and have it be over...

Two words: Technicolor yawn.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Heart pounding. Stomach in knots.

Childers vs. McDaniel would be extremely entertaining, but SUCH a huge downside if things don't go our way. I just wanted Cochran to win and have it be over...

Two words: Technicolor yawn.

Is that a reference to something?

No, it's just a slang term for vomiting, unless you knew that already.

BTW: Did Main Street Advocacy, the Conservative Victory Project, or another center-right PAC (other than Mississippi Conservatives) come in for Cochran?  Because they should've.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

For the recent other updates, Walsh is still crushing the anti-gay Bohlinger while Lewis is still winning handily in the Dem House primary and Stapleton is leading Zinke 36-33 with 2% in.

Bohlinger is pro-marriage.

Pro-marriage, or pro-gay marriage?  That's an important qualifier.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Warren County flips to Thad with 32% in

It flipped back to Mamacita with 36% in.

Anyway, I'm having flashbacks to Florida 2000 here.   Rankin, Rankin, Rankin.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'm gonna make a projection right now: the MS race is going to a runoff.  You heard it here first, folks.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Anybody know if there's a large recount margin in Mississippi?

In Mississippi, there are literally NO recount laws whatsoever.

How in the world do they make that work!?  (Other than not having close elections. )

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Sure, if a guy with a history of making bigoted comments and whose supporters have been going after Cochran's ailing wife is electable.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Rankin County is (finally!) up to 68%.  Mamacita leads 50.1-48.8%.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Not saying Childers will win, but the "Mississippi is inelastic" meme only applies to presidential elections. Remember that as late as 2008 3 of Mississippi's 4 districts sent Democrats to the House.

Well, that's true, but it has been a couple of decades since Mississippi has sent a Democrat to the Senate. 2014 is not going to be the year that changes.

And as recently as 1999, they elected a Dem governor.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Not saying Childers will win, but the "Mississippi is inelastic" meme only applies to presidential elections. Remember that as late as 2008 3 of Mississippi's 4 districts sent Democrats to the House.

Well, that's true, but it has been a couple of decades since Mississippi has sent a Democrat to the Senate. 2014 is not going to be the year that changes.

It's McDaniel's to lose, no doubt. But he's a far bigger buffoon than all the other buffoons the Tea Party has put up in other states and is extremely gaffe-prone. We definitely don't have all the facts on photogate, and more Tea Party leaders/prominent McDaniel supporters are likely to be implicated.

At the very least, Mississippi jumps to #1 on the most likely Democratic pickups this year if McDaniel pulls it out. Childers just has to sit back and see if McDaniel blows it.

I kind of doubt it's "McDaniel's to lose," especially if it's this close. 

Anyway, I am SO glad right now that Mississippi has runoffs.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

AP gives Palazzo the check.

Pro-Cochran groups are considering whether to dial back. Henry Barbour suggesting they'll try attacking the outside groups supporting McDaniel.

They need to be putting more resources into the primary, not fewer.  A divisive primary is much easier to recover from than having a dreadful candidate like "Mamacita" McDaniel.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

And the bug with the FL % reporting is fixed!

Deja vu...

[Oldiesfreak1854]

polls closed in MS...

My feelings exactly.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Lankford's lead is relatively uniform across the state at around 50-55%, with Cleveland running up his margins substantially.

Will the long awaited Bradley Effect finally materialize? If it doesn't in a Republican primary in Oklahoma, I doubt it would anywhere.

The Bradley effect is overrated.  The reason Tom Bradley lost his race wasn't racism; it was people lying to pollsters because they didn't want to be seen as racist for not supporting a black candidate.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Lankford's lead is relatively uniform across the state at around 50-55%, with Cleveland running up his margins substantially.

Will the long awaited Bradley Effect finally materialize? If it doesn't in a Republican primary in Oklahoma, I doubt it would anywhere.

The Bradley effect is overrated.  The reason Tom Bradley lost his race wasn't racism; it was people lying to pollsters because they didn't want to be seen as racist for not supporting a black candidate.

That's the definition of the Bradley Effect...

All right.  Glad to see that you understand it.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Politico now has 2.7% precincts in from MS; Cochran leads with 51.8%; McDaniel has 48.2%.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Looks like Lankford wins outright in OK for now.

^ Good. Lankford would be a great senator.

Yup. No wrong answer in this one.

They're both wrong answers.  It's still WAY too early to call that primary, even though Lankford has a lead right now.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Calling it for Thad.

I'm about ready to do the same thing, but it's still early.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The early MS-Sen results have Cochran narrowly leading 56-44 with 10% of the vote in.

I wouldn't call that narrow.  It's not really a landslide, but it's not real close either.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

There's also a big State House seat to watch in Oklahoma tonight - HD 91 - the GOP primary. Scott Esk, the massive homophobe who wants gays killed is thankfully trailing in the early returns with only 15 votes out of 373 counted so far. I really want to hope that the constituents of this district have at least some heart tonight and reject Esk.

Didn't know about this, but I hope so, too.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Looks like Lankford is floating above 50%, he will probably avoid a runoff with Shannon

It's still early, although I'd be bummed, too.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

First full county in in MS: Quitman.

Cochran won it 326-173 this time and only won it 215-129 last time around.

Quitman is a black belt delta county, so it looks like Cochran managed to get the turnout a little higher there while carrying it would roughly the same percentage.

Coahoma County is in now, too, and Cochran took it with 75.3%.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Amazingly a third of the vote is already in from Colorado.  I don't know how that happened, but it apparently did.  Beauprez has 31% in the GOP Gov primary, Tancredo has 26%, Gessler has 23%.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

CO is all mail, so they count quickly.

It is?  Didn't think it was.