Excellent work!
I wonder what accounted for the heavy Republican swing in the Thumb and much of the UP. It looks like a significant chunk of the Lake Michigan shoreline, stretching from about Hart to Holland (or just north of), saw a fairly heavy swing, as well.
Old thread being resurrected. Several reasons.
Bush was severely disliked in 2008 in Michigan. GOP cratered in rural areas here in 2006. 2008 was only slightly better.
McCain ran the worst campaign I've ever seen. He infamously quit Michigan and undercut any ground came there was. (Rove ran his trap too in 2012, but that was Rove more than the others)
Up north, a lot of people just stayed home. Romney did worse than McCain in terms of raw votes in some rural areas, but won the same county against Obama where Obama won the county against McCain. The UP is moving a bit to the right (it voted for Dukakis). It's taken a beating in its main industries (Mining, Timber, Corrections) and it's also socially conservative on life and firearms issues. I think Stupak would however still be in congress if he didn't retire. The D bench was decimated in Northern Michigan overall in 2010. Marquette is still dem (unions and NMU) and Gogebic County is still yellow dog, maybe due to the Duluth/Superior influence.
On the Lake MI side, there's a bit of a Chicago influence (vacation homes, etc) that came through for Obama.
The housing crunch did a number in new developments and McCain took the brunt of some of that. He only got 55-56% in Livingston County which is the worst showing since 1986 at the top of the ticket. Romney got 61 which is normal here.
The Thumb has always been ticket splitting, but conservative. I've seen 60% areas there elect a dem for state rep. They backed Bill Clinton in the thumb. 2010 did a number there as well. That area may be gone for good outside of Port Huron. Southern Lapeer/St Clair are gaining ex Oakland/Macomb residents who are bringing their politics with them. The politics aren't Warren or Southfield politics either.
In 2008, McCain finished slightly worse than either Dick DeVos or Mike Bouchard in 2006, but the county maps were somewhat different in those three contests. Here they are for comparison:
Governor 2006 (Granholm 56%, DeVos 42%)
Senate 2006 (Stabenow 57% , Bouchard 41%)
President 2008 (Obama 57%, McCain 40%)
As you can see, the GOP hemorrhaged rural support during Bush's second term. Even some of the most Republican counties in western Michigan (Berrien and Kent being the two best examples) went for Obama. I think a lot of that has to do with Grand Rapids and Benton Harbor (the latter being predominantly black), where Obama over-performed so much for a Democrat that he carried the whole county.
While the UP has trended Republican as of late for the same reasons as Appalachia, there still seem to be some areas of Democrat support. For instance, Schauer carried a number of UP counties last year, and Gogebic County was one of only four counties that Bernero carried in 2010.
Also, I don't think the Thumb ticket-splits as much as you think. I live right on the border of the Thumb, and it seems to favor Republicans. My hometown is a farming community and generally votes over 70% for Republicans. I don't think Clinton carried the Thumb in his first campaign, but he appears to the second time. Terry Brown got elected to the State House during the Democrat wave in 2006, and Jim Barcia got over 60% in Sanilac County (probably the most Republican county outside West MI) that same year, which probably had to do with being a popular incumbent. Stabenow got Sanilac in 2012 too, but that was probably due more to Hoekstra's weakness as a candidate. Michigan county election maps are always fun to look at because many of them seem to be so fluid in the way they vote.
