Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Sabato moves this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Even with the recent polling that suggests Edwards could make the runoff?

Sabato's predictions and analysis are garbage.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I wouldn't be sorry if Edwards won (either tonight or in a runoff), but I'm sure hoping that Guillory wins the race for lieutenant governor.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

When did you vote, Miles?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Fox 8 and AOS have called it for Edwards to make the runoff.  AP called the treasurer's race for Kennedy a while ago.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Man, it's really a fight for second between Vitter and Angelle.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Fox 8 has called the Secretary of State race for Schedler.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Edwards may actually win Livingston County. That's right, a county that went 84% Romney.

Probably because there are three major Republican candidates.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Poor Guillory

This is one of my favorite results. Democrats also automatically pick up his Senate seat. Good riddance to that treacherous demagogue.

That's better than what the other guy said about him.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

When did you vote, Miles?

I'm actually not registered in LA.

Are you registered in North Carolina, then?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Rating Change: LA-GOV

Leans R -----> Leans D

Seriously?  It looks like a solid tossup to me.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Some additional observations:

1. Democratic caucus gradully becomes more and more black, both because some white Democrats lose to Republicans (Ortego), are term-limited  and replacement happens to be Republican (Guillory, HD-41) or because white incumbents run for something and are replaced by black Democrats (Arnold, HD-102). So far process is relatively slow and in the next legislature there willl be between 15 and 18 (most likely, IMHO, 17) white Democrats in House, and, most likely, 4 in Senate. But after 2019 white Democrats risk near extinction: 13 of them in House and 2 in Senate are term-limited, and many of these districts are either strongly Republican on high level (especially - Presidential) (like SD-28, HD-33, HD-54 and other, mostly - in Acadiana and around it)  or, on the contrary, are majority-black (SD-34, HD-21, HD-83, and their like). There is a high probability that Louisiana's white Democrats will share the fate of their Alabama's brethern (in Alabama there is only 1 white Democratic state Senator and about 6 House members now) after 2019. Polarization begins to take an extreme form here...

2. Edwards has essentially 2 problems that can prevent his election: Obama and low turnout (especially in run-off)... Vitter - exactly 1: himself.

3. One of the biggest possible pluses for Democrats in 2019: No Obama on ballot or in the White House. He will be rather distant memory then...

First, I believe a Democrat won Guillory's seat.  And second, your analysis of the runoff is spot-on.  That's basically what Fox 8 said, too, BTW.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Wow, these were exactly the results Edwards needed. Vitter narrowly survived this round, but clearly took damage from the recent scandal. NEVER thought I'd say this, but... Lean DEM gain.

What "recent scandal"?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

How in the world did Edwards win Livingston parish?

The fact that there were three strong Republican candidates split the vote, I'm guessing.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yay! First major election in a year.

AOSHQDD Results here: http://dd.aoshq.com/results/louisiana-governor/

Polls closing in 13 minutes. Go Dardenne!

I love that map. Cartograms are so much more useful than regular county maps.

I find them confusing, and they distort the shape of the counties.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Has Louisiana certified the results of the primary yet?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It was already going to be really close when factoring in the terrible situation of polls over-estimating Democrat support as of late and the notorious instance of practically every Southern undecided voter breaking for the Republican at the end of the day, but I think this has now cost Edwards the election.

People really underestimate the amount to which bigoted white Southerners loved to be wooed with dog-whistling politics. This particular issue just so happens to combine them all (racism, xenophobia, religious bigotry, etc). Rubes in Louisiana are just orgasming everywhere right now, now that they've been given in their eyes a concrete reason to oppose Edwards.

ROFL

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I forgot all about the runoff last night--I wonder how that happened.  But we got our first snow of the season up here, and it was a doozy.  Our power went out last night, so I guess I couldn't have seen the returns even if I wanted to.

Yahoo is calling Edwards' victory an "upset."  Apparently they went to sleep in the early months of the campaign, because they saw nothing about Vitter's scandals or how Edwards closed the gap.