One thing that I hope continues, is that at least Fox has started giving the actual exit poll percentages. With those, one should get a pretty good idea in a hurry without waiting for some hard numbers to start parsing the size of the swings, what kind of night it is going to be when Indiana's polls close at 4 pm PST I think, even if the exit polls can be off by a few percent. In addition to Florida and Virginia, the states around the Great Lakes plus Iowa are probably the most critical in this election and tend to swing together, plus Florida and Virginia. Kentucky closes early too, and counts fast, but that state is more idiosyncratic when it comes to swings, and the cultural South swing to the extent KY mirrors it is of far less importance.
I'd generally agree with you, but exit polls are never very reliable. Calling races based on exit polls is part of how the networks really got burned with Florida in 2000.
