538 model & poll tracker thread

[Panhandle Progressive]

I pulled together this map from 538's numbers. In states where they don't have their own average, I've just used the average of polls since the race since the candidates have been known. In states with no polling, I've just used the 2016 numbers.

Biden appears to be quickly closing the gap in Iowa and I'd see him having a chance to win that before either Ohio or Georgia in 2020. This site https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/ appears to be showing this too. Can't you see the state that gave Obama his first big win in 2008 primaries and ultimately won in both general elections supporting his VP in 2020?

[Panhandle Progressive]

He's pretty much checked off all the boxes just chilling in his basement while Trump is forced to play defense.

This is a good point. Furthermore, it was pretty easy in 2016 for Trump to run as a challenger, aka outsider. Not so easy to do this when you've been in office for nearly a full term. Especially with racial tensions, coronavirus, economic/job concerns. Biden has the luxury to be the challenger this time. For each mistake Trump makes, he can just continue to say, I would have handled that differently. Then Trump keeps failing further behind, while Biden should be able to win by default, being the quiet, sane candidate.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Any word on when the full model will come out? Or will we only have these polling averages to go by until the actual election?

I remember reading recently that the 538 model launched at the end of June in 2016. Should be no later than that, this time. In other words, imminent.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I actually have a theory on why Nate Silver is dragging his feet-

or we get to the point where he (Trump) has zero chance of winning

This is what I believe will happen this election cycle. I don't see this race tightening dramatically, due to Trump's ineptness and lack of leadership on two of the major issues on American voters minds, the pandemic and race relations. Trump is trump is trump. In other words, he won't suddenly become an inspirational leader in the coming months, which is what it would take to win back voters. Nah, it's not too early to say, Trump doubled down on dumb and got burned. I mean the Quinnipiac poll a few days ago had Biden with a 15 point lead. FIFTEEN! Other recent quality polls have Biden with at least a double digit lead. Trump will become the first sitting president since George HW Bush in 1992 to fail to be re-elected, with a combination of repeatedly shooting himself in the foot and generally showing a lack of leadership on the major issues of the day. This isn't something that can shift dramatically over the next three and a half months. Not to mention, early voting will be HUGE this year and MANY MANY votes will be locked in long before election day, some states begin a month and a half out. This race will shift very little moving forward, and what little shift is left will continue to be gains by Biden.

[Panhandle Progressive]

According to this model: Florida is the #1 tipping state, about a 23% chance of deciding the election, while Penn is #2 about 22%. If you missed this, look for the Tipping Points tab option under The winding path to victory section.