Will Sanders be able to win any other Primaries after NH? (user search)
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  Will Sanders be able to win any other Primaries after NH? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Will Sanders be able to win any other Primaries after NH?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 63

Author Topic: Will Sanders be able to win any other Primaries after NH?  (Read 1148 times)
Panhandle Progressive
politicaljunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 855
United States


« on: February 05, 2016, 12:00:46 AM »

Since we all know he will win his home state of VT (which is a primary), I'm asking for you to exclude this one state while making a determination for this poll. Please also keep in mind that CO, MAINE, MN & WA all hold caucuses.
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Panhandle Progressive
politicaljunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 855
United States


« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2016, 01:08:13 AM »
« Edited: February 05, 2016, 01:11:15 AM by ♥♦ 3peat 2016 ♣♠ »

I am a little confused to the OP's delegate math in their signature, though maybe that isn't thread appropriate.

I can clarify the delegate math.
https://www.google.com/search?q=2016%20democratic%20delegates
http://www.cnn.com/election
According to these 2 sources, Hillary has someone between 385 and 411 total delegates (pledged and supers/unpledged) of 2,382 needed to win the nomination. She has so many delegates in total right now because of all the Democatic party members that have previously endorsed her. So she has something like 16 or 17% of the delegates needed when including prior endorsements and combining that with the delegates to be awarded from Iowa.
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Panhandle Progressive
politicaljunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 855
United States


« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2016, 03:01:23 PM »

The real question: will Clinton have a lock by the time the convention rolls around, or can Sanders prevent the crowning? (I mean, even if Sanders doesn't "win" any other primaries, can he still remain close enough to prevent the run away result?)

By design, it's difficult for one candidate to develop a big delegate advantage under proportional representation, especially when there are two strong, well financed candidates competing for the nomination. So even if he fails to "win" outright, if Sanders continues to run fairly strong in various contests, things will remain interesting...

I'm a a firm believer that the media narrative will change drastically on Super Tuesday and Bernie will become yesterday's news. By no later than the middle of March it will be obvious that Hillary is truly inevitable and Bernie has no chance to become the nominee.
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Panhandle Progressive
politicaljunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 855
United States


« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2016, 03:17:48 PM »

Yes definitely, especially if national polls are showing the race closing a bit.

They actually aren't showing that. Only 1 poll from 1 pollster is showing this. Here is the current national average:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/national-primary-polls/democratic/
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