Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[Panhandle Progressive]

It's just Harper burning documents....lol at this commentator on CBC.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I'm wondering with this stellar start if it's more likely that the Libs could go against conventional wisdom and actually end with a majority. Thoughts?

[Panhandle Progressive]

Does anyone have a link to results in specific ridings?

Go here and zoom in on the map and click on any riding....
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/18/2015-election-results-live-federal-vote_n_8307220.html

[Panhandle Progressive]

33 of 33 now...just stellar.

[Panhandle Progressive]

15 minutes till most of the remaining polls close (except B.C. and Yukon)

[Panhandle Progressive]

CTV projects a Liberal win.

As does the CBC.

No word on whether it will be a majority or minority government though.

This is what I'm most curious about.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Miramichi-Grand Lake in New Brunswick had been declared for the Libs but now is a TIE. Weird.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Did anyone just hear "fINKs her right in the pussy" on CBC??

Yep! I heard it too.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Looks like we're going to have a Liberal majority, this is just wow.

Not a single established pollster (that I'm aware of) predicted a majority for the Libs. I believe the highest seat count number was 149.

[Panhandle Progressive]

CBC projects Trudeau will win a majority.

[Panhandle Progressive]

How are Liberals leading in Kelowna-Lake Country? Isn't that one of the most Conservative seats in the BC Interior?

They are not only leading but the projected winner. Since that riding was created it has been extremely Conservative. This is a huge pickup for the Libs.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Weird things happen in Canada when a party is winning by a large margin.

Is 187 seats a large margin?

The Libs will finish with about 55% of all seats available, roughly 40% of the popular vote. Winning a majority government was unexpected tonight since not a single established pollster (that I'm aware of) predicted a majority. I believe the highest seat count projection was 149.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Well, the next couple years will be fun to watch in Canada, I wonder how Trudeau will work with our President and government.

It will be a strong North American coalition over the next year and then over at least the next four beyond that, since Hillary and Justin will be closely aligned as well.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I actually do have one question that's sort of been gnawing at my mind for a good portion of the campaign. What exactly drove down the Tory vote in BC? They seem to have recovered a bit from their worst polling numbers that were in the low-to-mid 20s, but nonetheless ended up third in the seat count with just 10 seats. It's not like BC has any historic love for the federal Liberals like Atlantic Canada. Was there a particular issue? Are green politics really that salient in BC?

I'm gonna say Trudeau's pledge of additional environmental protections along with his support for legalization of marijuana. These two plus the general national resentment towards Harper. My best guess.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Here are some good maps to show the election outcome:

1. 2011 vs 2015 election results
2. 2015 seats by province
3. 2015 overall national seat count (including clustered seats in cities)
4. Voter turnout (as %) from 1979 till yesterday.

http://imgur.com/a/dDe5h