I am willing to go down with the ship here, but my final prediction is Jones +3.
Good man. Now batten down for a firebombing at the hands of the usual trolls and pants-s**tters.
Most the skeptics want Jones to win though. It's just that we're not going to put faith in freaking Alabama just to get burned. Particularly when Moore is still ahead in the RCP average.
Look at the intensity gap and how much the Democrats were able to outperform the polls. Strong disapproval is in the mid to high 40's and strong approval is in the low 20's. Democrats outperformed the RCP average by 6 in VA and had some stunningly close over performances in the earlier house special elections.
