2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Maxwell]

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This is an R+8 district. Is McCready an especially strong candidate, or is he just the unwitting beneficiary of #resistance money?

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If they weren’t panicking before, they should probably panic now.

He also appears to have a well funded primary challenger.

This appears to be one of the NC Dem targets, if we can call any of the back row reach seat 'targets.' McReady is one of the Dem Veterans that are so classic this cycle. The seat also has the right combination of strong Clinton swings in the Suburbs and right-leaning SE Charlotte, and Obama dem areas in the Eastern part of the seat.

For every reason here though, the seat has not gone unmissed. The strong R primary challenger (Pittenger has faced strong primaries before), the fund gaps, the demographics - both Cook and Sabato have been moving the seat since January and now sits at Lean R.

I’d say Budd’s seat is Toss-up tilt-D (closer to Lean D than tilt-R, I don’t use Pure Tossup) and Pittenger’s is tilt-D (closer tossup tilt-R than Lean D) if he’s renominated and Lean R (right on the border of Likely R, just like Holding’s seat) if Pittenger loses the Republican primary.  At the very least, Ted Budd is probably going down (probably by mid-to-high single digits).  Pittenger is a remarkably weak incumbent with serious corruption scandals who has also made at least one extremely racist gaffe IIRC.  On a different note, Richard Burr is incredibly lucky that he isn’t on the ballot this year.

meh I don't really agree with that - I still think its a toss-up if Pittenger loses the primary because Mark Harris is definitely not a good general election candidate.

[Maxwell]

FL-25 seems like one of the least likely to flip in my mind - it's definitely the most Republican Miaimi District, and Diaz-Balart seems like a candidate tailor made for the district. Not too liberal to offend to more rural parts of the district, hits the right immigration notes for the miami voters. I think Republicans are already in deep deep trouble if this one is even within 8 points.

watch for this when if Diaz Balart retires tho!

[Maxwell]

So how are Democrats handwaving the significant shift toward Republicans on the generic ballot? Just by hoping that a handful of open-seat special elections are reflective of November election results? It seems that people here are unwilling to consider any possibility that does not involve the sky being the limit for Democratic gains (as if you have learned nothing from 2014 and 2016)

Multiple reasons: 1) Trump is president and midterms don't go well for the president's party unless a tragic event happens (2002) and/or the president is really popular (Clinton was at like 65% in 98) and the first part hasn't/hopefully doesn't happen and second half isn't true,

Define 'not well'. Republicans lost 26 seats (2 more than needed to flip the House) with Reagan posting similar approvals to Trump presently. That's an awfully small margin for error if taking the House is going to be considered Democrats' marker for success.

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Oh really? Because Democrats were up ~11% in May 2006, and only ended up winning by 8% (granted that was still sufficient in that year)

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The economy is still relatively successful compared to the Obama years (even if numerous campaign promises have been neglected), and I cannot imagine relitigating the 2016 election will be too popular after 1.5 years of investigation (much to the Democrats' chagrin)

I am not saying that GOP will hold Congress; I just think posters here are being silly when they treat it as a metaphysical impossibility.

Sadly I'm in complete agreement. The attempt at a Democratic majority is built on pretty shaky ground considering the seats actually open for contention - Only a few are solid gimmies for the Democrats.

[Maxwell]

55-60% chance of winning the house sounds about right to me. Narrow favorites but no means guaranteed.

[Maxwell]

lol CA-50 was always going to be quite a stretch even with Hunter's scandals, Najjar was the better candidate of the two anyways. Butner seemed very overhyped.

[Maxwell]

Beto, maybe smartly maybe not, has actively tried to push away national Super PAC help.

[Maxwell]

Cook Political Report moves TX-32 to Toss Up

Wasserman writes:

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wow i didn't even have this one flipping. looks like its on my list now.

[Maxwell]

Aftab Pureval raised $885,000 in the second quarter https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/columnists/politics-extra/2018/07/03/congressional-race-cincinnati-democrat-builds-campaign-war-chest/755780002/

*whistles*

this is what we call a star candidate. OH-1 might be tilt D now - Chabot does not seem to be aware of how real this challenge is getting.

[Maxwell]

Aftab Pureval raised $885,000 in the second quarter https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/columnists/politics-extra/2018/07/03/congressional-race-cincinnati-democrat-builds-campaign-war-chest/755780002/

*whistles*

this is what we call a star candidate. OH-1 might be tilt D now - Chabot does not seem to be aware of how real this challenge is getting.

(reminder that South Asian candidates often benefit from stellar fundraising from their communities which may or may not reflect their strength in the district)

I mean sure but the last poll of this race had Pureval only down 1 point.

[Maxwell]

List of candidates/seats where Trump is contributing to the Republicans. Lots of... interesting... choices.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article215768270.html

Senate seats:
PA, WY, TN, IN, ND, TX, NE, MO, NV, MN, MT, FL

House seats:
NY-01, NV-02, ND-AL, SC-01, NE-01, OH-12, KY-06, MI-01, MI-08, IA-01, IL-12, VA-07, FL-16, NC-13,TX-26, GA-01, TX-31, OH-01, PA-08, TX-27, CO-06, NY-27, TX-11, TX-07, FL-26, IL-13, CA-10, TN-04, FL-25, NY-11, WI-07, TN-03, MT-AL, OH-07, OH-16, WI-06, GA-06, MD-01, NC-09, NM-02, WA-03, LA-03, AT-02, IN-09, IL-14, CA-50, SD-AL, OH-14, PA-03, TN-08, MN-02, MO-07, MO-03, NJ-03, PA-10, FL-18, CA-23, WA-05, WV-03, OK-02, WA-04, PA-07, NY-18, MS-03, IN-06, PA-04, WA-08, PA-12, LA-01, TX-32, MO-08, MN-08, OH-15, NV-03, VA-02, NY-22, PA-05, CO-03, MI-07, IN-02, CA-45, NJ-11, GA-07, KS-03, IA-03

Some of these are reach seats that i'm feeling like Republican internal polling is starting to look real bad and others... might just be people Trump likes or something i can't explain donating to Barasso or any of the Missouri guys.

[Maxwell]

List of candidates/seats where Trump is contributing to the Republicans. Lots of... interesting... choices.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article215768270.html

Senate seats:
PA, WY, TN, IN, ND, TX, NE, MO, NV, MN, MT, FL

So he's gonna contribute to Nebraska and Wyoming's senate races, but not Mississippi (the special in particular)? What a joke.

That has to be a typo and had to have meant West Virginia rather than Wyoming. Nebraska is probably only a hair further out than the Mississippi special race.

No, the list on McClatchy says the money went to Barasso.

He tweeted out his endorsement of him today too.

bizarro - are GOP internals showing red for Barasso? I mean Trauner is about as good an opponent as you can get but that's... a very low bar in Wyoming. Or is he seeing red in the primary? I've heard literally nothing about this race.

he also donated to Scalise and McCarthy tho, so backing potential leadership prospects.