Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[Maxwell]

Texas looks a little low energy, so I suspect Cruz is winning there. The rest are long, high energy lines.

[Maxwell]

Exit poll info:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-super-tuesday-republican-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37309493

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From those numbers I can guess Arkansas is going to be decent for Cruz, and Vermont may have a strong second for Kasich (In New Hampshire he did a lot better with moderates, liberals, and independents).

[Maxwell]

That sounds good for RUBIO honestly, Cruz, Carson and Trump split the outside establishment, while Rubio for the most part has the experience part locked down.

That's not what the numbers have reflected - Rubio leads experience but only usually with about a third of the vote. TRUMP, on the other hand, tends to lead outside of establishment with over 50%.

[Maxwell]

What a bunch of low energy push polls.

[Maxwell]

For the record, maybe I am from a particularly eldery suburb in Tulsa, but my god the turnout was large AND very old. I'm not sure what that means... probably good for TRUMP.

[Maxwell]

That tends to look like what other polls have shown - last minute voters go for Rubio because Trump is, well, Trump. Trump voters decided they would go for him a long long time ago.

Maybe I haven't paid attention to Kasich's numbers, but that seems high for him. That translates to already around 4% of the vote.

[Maxwell]

That tends to look like what other polls have shown - last minute voters go for Rubio because Trump is, well, Trump. Trump voters decided they would go for him a long long time ago.

How likely does that make a Rubio win in VA?

Not very - Probably a single digit victory for TRUMP. I could be wrong though.

[Maxwell]

These exit polls change throughout the night, so they're not very reliable.

But it is fun to tinker with numbers!

[Maxwell]

If Rubio wins Virginia it's possible for him to keep going.

If Rubio wins two states he'll probably continue - but Rubio will remain a ticking time bomb that goes off on March 15th when he loses Florida (he has a meager 31% approval rating there).

[Maxwell]

Kasich will be over 10% in Virginia if those exit poll numbers hold - Only around 12% of late deciders in South Carolina went for Kasich.

[Maxwell]

KASICH TIED IN VERMONT WOOOOOOOW

[Maxwell]

Kasichmentum!

[Maxwell]

Can they at least salivate over Kasich for a second? He only polled at like 15% in Vermont. He is significantly over-performing his poll numbers. If he wins it's a significant upset.

[Maxwell]

Does that mean Kasich could be overperforming in Mass too?

Potentially - it means his spider strategy could give him a significant number of delegates.

[Maxwell]

Here's my math on the topline exit polls for all 5 candidates in all 3 states:

GA:
Trump 40%
Cruz 23.5%
Rubio 22.5%
Carson 7.5%
Kasich 5.5%

VA:
Trump 33.5%
Rubio 31%
Cruz 16%
Kasich 10%
Carson 7.5%

VT:
Trump 32%
Kasich 31%
Rubio 20.5%
Cruz 10.5%
Carson 4.5%

The fact that Cruz could come in 3rd in 2 southern states he banked on winning is absolutely devastating.

Let's be fair - Virginia is not a southern state.

[Maxwell]

Marco Rubio flopped big time tonight.

[Maxwell]

Not enough in in Minnesota to call it... c'mon TED

[Maxwell]

Meanwhile Ted Cruz defeated Rubio in Oklahoma despite every single notable public official in the state endorsing Rubio. Pathetic.