A New America Series - 1996 Primaries

[Maxwell]

A New America Series - 1996 Primaries

President Kemp's first term was regarded as a mixed bag, but largely good enough to re-elect the President. His second term would not be as lucky. After a short period of job growth in 1992-1993, Kemp and the Democratic Congress passed a budget that tightened public sector spending and increased taxes to deal with the wide budget deficit and rising debt. This would result in all of the economic gains being halted and the economy continuing to stagnate. With that economic stagnation comes a wave of crime and riots in the streets due to decisions involving the deaths of young black men at the hands of police officers. President Kemp, despite his relative sway in the African American community for a Republican, would side with the police, a move that did not help him in the deeply troubling 1994 Midterms (Democrats would go on to pick up 10 seats, including Bill Roth's seat in Delaware, which would be picked up by the local AFL-CIO President Lisa Phillips (fic)). Troops remain in Iraq as the effort there has now been muddled and the mission is confused. There are protests on the White House lawn calling for justice and bringing the troops back home.

Needless to say, with approvals hovering around low 30s, Kemp will not attempt to run for re-election. The Republican primary is a mixture of old and new faces. Former Governor H. Ross Perot is running on a platform of restrictive trade, economic stimulus in the form tax credits for business, and to make up for his pro-choice stand, he is also pushing himself as being very tough on crime. Perot is for the war but wants a broader coalition strategy to make sure the middle east is no longer such a hotbed. Vice President Gary Lewis is the choice of the establishment, endorsed by exiting Minority Leader Bob Dole, President Kemp, and Defense Secretary George H.W. Bush. Lewis is a moderate Republican, calling for a continuation of the war to make sure there is stability, continued free trade, and a middle of the road approach to the increasing tension between the police and African Americans. Then there is Senator Dan Quayle, a right-wing conservative and youthful face of the party, who promotes himself as the only candidate who will reduce the size of government and stimulate the economy, and the only candidate who can unite the increasingly conservative and increasingly divided party. Governor Pete Wilson of California is running a fairly moderate campaign, but takes his stand as the candidate who most addresses the issue of immigration, with a slogan of "Seal Our Borders, Clean Our Streets". Senator Phil Gramm and Businessman Steve Forbes are battling for the mantle of who can have the flattest tax rates. Senator Bill Armstrong and Ambassador Alan Keyes are battling it out for who can turn out the religious right, and Armstrong emphasizes his family values approach as a winning one for the Republican Party. Finally, the moderate/liberal wing is running Former Governor Norma Paulus of Oregon. Paulus is anti-war, and calls for immediate troop withdraw, along with a package of deregulatory measures, tax credits, and ready made projects to grow the economy. She has the vigorous endorsement of Former President Mark Hatfield, who has not come out for a Republican in quite some time.

The crowded Republican field was nearly matched on the Democratic side. Former President Jerry Brown hopes that two terms of a Republican have vindicated him as a candidate for President. Brown has significant resources and a progressive platform (including universal healthcare and immediate withdraw from Iraq), but his loss in 1988 has gained him many challengers. Even as he maintains that he is skeptical of newer trade agreements and regards NAFTA as a mistake, his legacy of the trade agreement haunts him. Senator Harvey Gantt is running on the hopes of being the first African American to win the office. Gantt is a staunch liberal - running on significant justice reforms that are unpopular with broader America but popular with African Americans and liberal whites. Governor Ann Richards has significant electoral success in a deeply Republican state, and is running on being the choice of the working class and upending the Democratic establishment who still have faith in Brown, who she as criticized as being outdated. Senator Al Gore is running again, and while still socially conservative, he has placed more emphasis on his environmental platform, which he hopes will separate him from the rest of the field. Senator Joe Biden is running again for redemption, seeing the failing of President Kemp in his second term, and hopes to bring the party to a place where they can win again, and emphasizes his strong relationship with the men and women in armed services. Senator Paul Simon emphasizes his fiscal conservative credentials and his anti-war record. Dick Gephardt is a favorite of labor, and Former Governor Harry Sparks is kind of a figure of the past - deeply anti-NAFTA, very fiscally conservative, and a social conservative too, and criticizes the field for "bastardizing" FDR's Democratic Party.

Notable figures who withdrew from a potential run includes: Senator Bill Roy (running for re-election), Former Governor Sherrod Brown (running for Senate at some point), Former Governor Buddy Roemer (endorsing Paulus), and Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld (endorsing Quayle).

2 days!

[Maxwell]

Perot - Pro-Choice, Fair Trade
Lewis - Pro-Life, Staunchly Free Trade
Quayle - Pro-Life, Staunchly Free Trade
Wilson - Pro-Choice, Free Trade
Gramm - Pro-Life, Free Trade
Forbes - Pro-Choice, Staunchly Free Trade
Armstrong - Staunchly Pro-Life, Free Trade (in something of a flip flop)
Keyes - Staunchly Pro-Life, Fair Trade
Paulus - Pro-Choice, Free Trade

Brown - Pro-Choice, Moderately Free Trade (Though regretting NAFTA)
Gantt - Pro-Choice, Moderately Free Trade
Richards - Pro-Life, Fair Trade
Gore - Pro-Life, Free Trade
Biden - Pro-Choice, Staunchly Free Trade (Normal Delaware position)
Simon - Pro-Choice, STaunchly Free Trade
Gephardt - Pro-Choiceish, Fair Trade
Sparks - Pro-Life, Fair Trade

[Maxwell]

Also, give me suggestions for Vice Presidential picks please!

[Maxwell]

Voted Paulus before I read she was pro-choice.

I suspected you would be a Lewis voter.

[Maxwell]

Republican primary turnout is strong and early.

[Maxwell]

Bizzump!

[Maxwell]

Democratic turnout is exactly half of GOP turnout - a sign of things to come?

[Maxwell]

I had to make a choice on the Democratic side...

A New America Series - 1996 Primaries

The Republican side was expected to be a walk for Vice President Gary Lewis. Lewis effectively drummed up Republican donors, endorsements, and his fundraising haul proved so large that he thought he had sufficiently scared off serious challengers. But as Former Governor Ross Perot unexpectedly made another run, Perot and Lewis were basically in a cage match for a long time. Signs began to show quickly that Lewis was losing when the first caucuses, Alaska and Louisiana, showed Lewis in a very distant 2nd and 4th respectively, while Perot managed to win them. At the beginning of the cycle, Iowa was considered the home of the religious conservatives, and as a result, an easy Bill Armstrong win. But Dan Quayle, generally the third place candidate in all of the polls, managed a last minute surge in the state and beat Armstrong by a solid five points. This crippled Armstrong to the point of dropping out. Then New Hampshire, the state Lewis had long aimed his resources at, decided to give one of the lower tier candidates, Governor Pete Wilson, a resurgence. Lewis' campaign continued to crater, even as he vowed to remain in the race. Despite losing both states, Perot had enough support and enough resources to continue to run. So in the end, it was a three way match-up between Senator Dan Quayle, a favorite of fairly normal conservatives, Pete Wilson, favorite of anti-immigrant moderates, and Ross Perot, a favorite of people sort of in the middle. Quayle's coalition proved to be the strongest in terms of pure votes, but in terms of delegates, Quayle required the endorsement of Lewis and Armstrong in order to receive the delegate count he needed. (Paulus would also be a minor and deciding force in many races, especially in New England and in the West Coast)



Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN) - 27.6%
Governor Pete Wilson (R-CA) - 24.1%
Former Governor H. Ross Perot (R-TX) - 20.7%
Former Governor Norma Paulus (R-OR) - 10.3%
Vice President Gary Lewis (R-KS) - 6.9%
Ambassador ALAN KEYES (R-MD) - 6.9%
Senator Bill Armstrong (R-CO) - 3.4%

Former President Jerry Brown, on the outset, looked obviously like the favorite, with Ann Richards, Al Gore, and Joe Biden running close. Originally the race looked completely shaken up when Biden managed a surprise victory in both Iowa (killing Dick Gephardt) and New Hampshire (killing Harry Sparks), but revelations over Biden's long list of plagiarism slowed his campaign to a crawl. Despite wins by both Biden and Gore, both of their campaigns would cede to the pressure and lose oxygen in a dogfight between Brown and Richards. Ann Richards, a wily populist from Texas, clowned Brown for his elitism, and paraded herself as a candidate for the poor while Brown a candidate of the wealthy, limosine liberals. This message managed to reach whites and blacks alike, who begun to view Brown more negatively. Tied in the votes, Richards managed to win more delegates by closing the gap in New York, Wisconsin, Minnesota while almost completely shutting Brown and others out in Michigan, Ohio, Texas, and Florida. In order for Brown to win outright, he needed a 70% win in California. When Richards pulled 35% to Brown's 49%, it was doom for him: Richards could copple together a coalition while Brown (who seriously alienated Gore, Simon, and Gantt with attack ads) could not.



Governor Ann Richards (D-TX) - 28.6%
Former President Jerry Brown (D-CA) - 28.6%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) - 14.3%
Senator Al Gore (D-TN) - 14.3%
Senator Harvey Gantt (D-NC) - 7.1%
Senator Paul Simon (D-IL) - 7.1%